StockFetcher Forums · General Discussion · Is a bottom in?<< 1 2 >>Post Follow-up
aziam
24 posts
msg #102828
Ignore aziam
10/5/2011 2:47:18 PM

Barring a sudden collapse today it sure looks like a text book double bottom with a double measured move and a three bar reversal to boot.

Opinions?

Kevin_in_GA
4,557 posts
msg #102830
Ignore Kevin_in_GA
10/5/2011 9:25:05 PM

Show me it on the weekly chart and I'll consider it. Otherwise it could well be a textbook snap-back rally during a downtrend.

gmg733
623 posts
msg #102831
Ignore gmg733
10/5/2011 10:30:23 PM

Depends on your time frame. :)

Just a bounce for now, but long term trend is down now and money is to be made on the down side when the bounce peaks.

campbellb75
101 posts
msg #102832
Ignore campbellb75
10/5/2011 10:42:37 PM

According to Barry Ritholtz, "Following Fridays 90/90 day, we should expect a rally to last 4-7 days, before resuming the prior trend (lower)."

olathegolf
64 posts
msg #102833
Ignore olathegolf
10/5/2011 11:00:46 PM

Take a look at the MACD(12,26,9) on the monthly S&P500 charts. Crossovers pretty accurately call the longer term trend. A good opportunity for the shorts.

aziam
24 posts
msg #102836
Ignore aziam
10/6/2011 9:09:53 AM

I don't disagree that the long term trend is still down but my belief is that we have a 50/50 chance of returning to Septembers highs, at the very least. In my book, with good money management, its worth a punt. If I'm wrong, then I'll take the loss.

Kevin_in_GA
4,557 posts
msg #102837
Ignore Kevin_in_GA
10/6/2011 9:23:03 AM

I don't disagree that the long term trend is still down but my belief is that we have a 50/50 chance of returning to September's highs, at the very least. In my book, with good money management, its worth a punt. If I'm wrong, then I'll take the loss.

++++++++

In what sport is punting not a loss? I think you have some serious resistance to overcome at 1175-1200 on the ^SPX. If it breaks above that, I think risk is mitigated somewhat. Until then, the more appropriate metaphor is that you are planning to drive the ball down the middle of the field against a serious ground defense.

aziam
24 posts
msg #102839
Ignore aziam
modified
10/6/2011 9:47:06 AM

-------- In what sport is punting not a loss? I think you have some serious resistance to overcome at 1175-1200 on the ^SPX. If it breaks above that, I think risk is mitigated somewhat. Until then, the more appropriate metaphor is that you are planning to drive the ball down the middle of the field against a serious ground defense--------

In rugby union, punting is a skill that all outfield players could benefit from. That aside, your analogy may well be correct. Lets see how this plays out and how tough the defense really is.








gmg733
623 posts
msg #102877
Ignore gmg733
10/9/2011 11:36:11 AM

In essence if you would ask yourself what is your time frame can you only truly answer the question.

People ask me what is a good stock to buy and I usually answer, what is your time frame? We got different answers which gives one an indication of the time frame which I feel differs from your time frame.

Regardless of trend at the moment, I am selling volatility. I really do not care which way the market goes.

aziam
24 posts
msg #102897
Ignore aziam
10/10/2011 6:55:53 PM

In essence if you would ask yourself what is your time frame can you only truly answer the question.

People ask me what is a good stock to buy and I usually answer, what is your time frame? We got different answers which gives one an indication of the time frame which I feel differs from your time frame.

Regardless of trend at the moment, I am selling volatility. I really do not care which way the market goes.


Hats off t'ya...options fry my brains;-)





StockFetcher Forums · General Discussion · Is a bottom in?<< 1 2 >>Post Follow-up

*** Disclaimer *** StockFetcher.com does not endorse or suggest any of the securities which are returned in any of the searches or filters. They are provided purely for informational and research purposes. StockFetcher.com does not recommend particular securities. StockFetcher.com, Vestyl Software, L.L.C. and involved content providers shall not be liable for any errors or delays in the content, or for any actions taken based on the content.


Copyright 2016 - Vestyl Software L.L.C.Terms of Service | License | Questions or comments? Contact Us
EOD Data sources: DDFPlus & CSI Data Quotes delayed during active market hours. Delay times are at least 15 mins for NASDAQ, 20 mins for NYSE and Amex. Delayed intraday data provided by DDFPlus