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EWZuber
1,373 posts
msg #38769
Ignore EWZuber
11/8/2005 5:09:35 PM

Entered EGHT @ $1.72. Closed EGHT today @ $1.81 as it broke pattern support on the Hourly Chart.


FWood
1 posts
msg #38798
Ignore FWood
11/9/2005 7:45:25 PM

Hello all. When learning to trade I found there was so much information and varied styles of trading, along with variables in the market, that this ain't no easy run. But what a challenge! When I found SF about 3 years ago, I thought it was awesome and joined.

I have made many, many filters but didn't realize how long the 'learning curve' would be!. EWZuber, TheRumpledOne, etc...you guys really are talented with the technical end of things. Now that I can follow more of the lingo and codes, I will be reading these posts much more often. Some excellent filters in this post alone. Thanks for sharing.

I agree using Weekly and Monthly charts to clear the daily 'noise'is so important. As my main charts I also use BigCharts. Even though they offer what sometimes can be too many indicators, I find I always go back to using them to get the full picture. Finding the right trading style/indicators/sectors takes alot of time and experiance doing, but the reward is in the learning and getting better. If anyone is interested, I can outline what I consider to be my trading indicators to date and the critical points I have picked up so far (although may be old hat to most of you).

But I do have a question. Since we now can check the 'performance' for a filter over time, it has become really obvious that even a weekly or monthly filter is extremely dependent on the day to day goings on in the market. It is amazing that a filter which one day can return 3 or 4 potential good buys out of 5, can only 1 or 2 days later be totally wrong. I have heard don't buy on Mon or Fri, etc. But how can that effect a filter based on Weekly indicators or longer moving averages? I think the answer is because its people buying/selling, its human factors or market pressures.

I have found using a WEEKLY DMI (+ crossover -) is very powerful indicator for start/end of a trend. One filter I use seems to be very good on Alternate Wednesdays.(If Wed last week was good, this week Wed pick's will be bad, etc.) As well as about 30% time its good on alt Thursdays. In tracking the results I also see mid-month and towards the end of the month seems to be better. Generally (with some exceptions as always with rules), Mon/Tue/Fri's picks usually die big time. I have many filters and find they all seem to only shine on certain days. I have tried to correlate this to daily market up/down, advance/decline ratios, volume accumulation, etc...with no real success. A delay of 3-4 days will usually tell you what's good/bad, but many good momenteum moves are missed by then.

Is there timing or factors I am missing which would account for this? (Pros rearranging portfollios around the 27/28th, end or start of new 1/4s, etc..). If possible I would appreciate any info/clarity on this.

Thanks and good trading.


EWZuber
1,373 posts
msg #38809
Ignore EWZuber
11/10/2005 12:47:31 AM

Fwood, what you are seeing are the the cycles of accumulation and distribution of individual stocks in relation to the cycles of accumulation and distribution of the markets. For best results try and enter your best filter picks at the start of accumulation phase of the overall market. There is a synergy between the markets cycles and individual stocks cycles. It is best to try and use this to your advantage.
For example take a great stock like WFMI. It's been in a solid uptrend for a long time with very little distribution. I chose this one because the chart appears on the surface to be quite linear in it's uptrend, but...
While the markets were in distribution from the end of Jan.2004 to mid August 2004 WFMI gained only about +9% dispite great growth and fundamentals. Then from August 2004 to Jan.2005 the markets were in accumulation and WFMI gained +25%. From Jan~May 2005( 5 months) markets were again in distribution and WFMI gained about +6%.
When the markets moved into another long term accumulation phase from May until August 2005(4 months) WFMI gained +36%.

If your stock is not as strong as WFMI then it's distribution phases will be more pronounced, longer in duration and deeper.


heypa
283 posts
msg #38815
Ignore heypa
11/10/2005 12:35:32 PM

here is one to try
Fetcher[DAILY accumulation distribution is equal to the DAILY accumulation distribution 20 day high today
and the DAILY accumulation distribution is less than the DAILY accumulation distribution 20 day high yesterday
and average volume(40) is greater than 50000
and price above 1
and date offset is 0
]


Try it on a series of back days to get a feel for the action


heypa
283 posts
msg #38816
Ignore heypa
11/10/2005 12:40:08 PM

Forgot to add. It's gotta look like it's gonna go up to be a buy.
Live long and prosper


TheRumpledOne
6,358 posts
msg #38826
Ignore TheRumpledOne
11/11/2005 8:16:28 AM

Fetcher[
WEEKLY accumulation distribution is equal to the WEEKLY accumulation distribution 20 WEEK high today
and the WEEKLY accumulation distribution is less than the WEEKLY accumulation distribution 20 WEEK high 1 WEEK AGO
and average volume(40) is greater than 50000
and average WEEKLY volume(40) is greater than 50000
and price above 1
]



MAY ALL YOUR FILLS BE COMPLETE.


EWZuber
1,373 posts
msg #38886
Ignore EWZuber
11/15/2005 1:54:39 AM

GV support did hold at $0.87. The stock broke short term resistance on 11/09 and today hit $1.08 at the open for +24% at the top.

Looking at TERN to bounce for a quick trade. Suspect it could go as high as $2.75 to test the resistance trendline or the 25 DMA.

OMNI--Want to see it close above ~$2.70 first.






EWZuber
1,373 posts
msg #38891
Ignore EWZuber
11/15/2005 11:21:45 AM

CPST from the first post on this thread doing very well, up ~60% so far.

Looks like EGHT might be about to move higher soon. It's been trying to hold pattern support at $1.70 on EOD (end of day) chart while taking care of overhead supply. Looking for a close above ~ $1.72 first.


EWZuber
1,373 posts
msg #38968
Ignore EWZuber
11/19/2005 3:55:19 PM

CNXT is one to watch for small cap players. It's not that often that we see positive fundamental change in a sub $5 stock. Most seemed destined for a slow death.
CNXT has recently revised their earnings to a return to profitibility of 1C EPS this quarter and 6C EPS for FY06. Also they are outsourcing to India on a large scale for design engineers at 25C on the dollar. This is projected to save the company ~$38 Mill. a year.
Technically the chart is indicating that CNXT is at the beginning of a long term move higher.
Once it breaks resistance at $2.45 and confirms it as support there will likely be very little resistance to the top of the gap at $4.03.
JMHO


EWZuber
1,373 posts
msg #38969
Ignore EWZuber
11/19/2005 4:21:09 PM

EGHT closed the week dead on TLS (trend line support) preventing a distribution phase from being triggered on the Weekly Chart. EGHT is also forming a basing pattern on the Daily and Hourly Charts.
Daily Chart showing a weak Morning Star pattern while Hourly Chart is working on an inverted Head & Shoulders or possibly a Double Bottom as it looks like it may retest $1.62.
25 DMA is immediate resistance.
EGHT has to close the month above ~$1.90 to prevent a long term distribution phase. This Weekly Chart accumulation phase is moving into phase alignment with the daily chart which is trying to start a new accumulation phase. The synergy (if an accumulation phase is confirmed on the daily Chart) should drive the stock higher to test $1.85~$1.90. If that occurs then next resistance will be at ~$2.25. Daily Chart TLR (trend line resistance) has dropped to $1.65 (from $1.72) so looking for a close above this level.
The fact that the stock was gapped up on Friday and held above TLS by a huge bid all day at $1.65 indicates that big money intends to run this higher if at all possible.
JMHO


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