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EWZuber
1,373 posts
msg #29358
Ignore EWZuber
10/18/2003 11:39:27 PM

Watching to see if NVDA holds short term trendline support at $16.50 ( & rising ).
Notice that since 9/30 the vast majority of the volume has been buying volume. I like the way this is acting.
Stochastic wave is starting the accumulation phase on Weekly charts. This should mitigate the distribution phase on the daily chart that has just begun.
The 15 DMA has flattened out and is being tested as support at about $16.60.
This is a substantial development. Also on hourly charts there is a 13 day trendline support at $16.57 and NVDA is oversold on hourly charts. These two indicators should provide substantial support here.
I'll be watching this support level very carefully. If it holds this could be a very bullish indication.
JMHO


jthehut
124 posts
msg #29360
Ignore jthehut
10/19/2003 9:06:13 AM

Looks like the next "major" support level is at 15.70...and resist at 16.97
13 day ema is 16.95. I see what you're saying about the weekly stoch etc. but I don't see why you've picked this particular stock to be so excited since more tech indicators show a continued short-term down-trend probability than a good bull run...am I missing something here, like a wedge pattern forming?

M aka jthehut


ItsL8rHere
2 posts
msg #29363
Ignore ItsL8rHere
10/19/2003 12:49:16 PM

can anyone point me in the direction to write a filter to use in catching an ADX crossover? Like the +D1 to cross -D1 with the ADX improving for a few days..new to the SF game.
Thanks


JoeGrossinger
165 posts
msg #29364
Ignore JoeGrossinger
10/19/2003 1:54:22 PM

Of course stocks can always do the surprising move, but NVDA is a dog from my point of view. There is nothing there to recommend it.
One of the worst things a trader can do is anticipate a reversal. It's like predicting the end of the world.
This stock only knows one direction. DOWN.
It could and probably will do a short bounce from these levels because its oversold, but that is about it. OVERSOLD does not indicate more buyers than sellers, oversold, where the stock just keeps diving has nothing to recommend it. This stock tried to break out of a double bottom and failed, heading lower.
So the best you can hope for is a triple bottom formation in about a month or so.
The chart starts at the upper left and without break or letup goes to the bottom right. I don't need any indicators to tell me this stock only knows one direction. DOWN. It's sorry performance during a very bullish phase of the market is another indicator. It's not testing anything but new lows and most likely will revisit the $15.70 area again. From there it might struggle up to the $17.50 for another test. That is only a 11% climb and could take another month to complete.
It's a snorer. The Bollinger Bands have not come together, which means either the stock will continue to go down or it will take some time to base before making a substantial move.
It just recently fell below the 200 day average, the 50 day average is falling like a rock and the 20 day likes to stay below the 50 day. This is a bearish chart.
The weekly chart shows a real nice stair step to hell.




ItsL8rHere
2 posts
msg #29365
Ignore ItsL8rHere
10/19/2003 4:58:13 PM

Here is a link to a chart at SF.. check out the 3rd week of Sept. This is a prime example to write a filter re: ADX crossovers.. anyone can help?


http://www.stockfetcher.com/advchart?hog=GHKHCKIAKBDEKBDCHIBAEDJJBBIGBDJ&ts=1066596793


EWZuber
1,373 posts
msg #29366
Ignore EWZuber
10/19/2003 8:43:10 PM

jthehut
excited I am not. lol.
I see the same support around $15.57 ~ $15.80 and stronger support at longer term trendline at $14 ( & rising ).
Here's what I'm looking at. Between May and August NVDA formed a head & shoulders pattern. The peak was at about $28 and the neckline was violated at about $23. That gives us a $5+- drop below the neckline to satisfy the pattern completion and gives us a downside target of around $18 + -. That has occurred.

A large wedge pattern has formed starting on 6/6/03. Trendline resistance is at about $19 ( & falling ).

The Monthly chart stochastic wave is out of phase with the NASDAQ monthly chart stochastic wave this is why NVDA has been dropping while the NASDAQ has been climbing. Also the weekly chart stochastic wave is trying to +xover.

It may not happen this cycle but before long I expect the long term Monthly chart to have a fast line cross above the slow line.
I am watching NVDA now because it is the weekly chart stochastic wave that will be the catalyst for the monthly chart wave to +cross over. So this is prerequisite to seeing a change of the trend.
I'm watching for the changing trend indications now before they are obvious to everyone cause thats when the smart money gets in not after momentum players and everyone else has already seen it. I like to watch a stock that appears to be making a trend change well in advance. These have always been my most successful positions. This allows one plenty of time to form a strategy and adjust it as the time for entry grows near.

A +xover of the Monthly chart cycle could easily drive NVDA through resistance at $19. If that happens then technicians will jump on it driving it higher and then the momentum players will get on board. Institutions will have bought near the bottom.
If the move doesn't materialize due to poor earnings growth or whatever thats ok too. No harm done.
Which brings up another point.
Earnings in July were up +366% over the same qtr. last year and the Oct. quarter is projected to be +116% over the same qtr. last year.
NVDA's FY 2003 ends in Jan. and the FY 2004 earnings are projected to have +40% growth over FY 2003.

I'm seeing a possible convergence of events here between technicals and fundamentals. The market is forward looking. If the market thinks that NVDA will be able to realize this projected growth then institutions will be trying to sneek into positions, buying at dips, without alerting the masses.
The charts will indicate this but it will be very subtle at first. This is what I'm looking for now.
With 56% institutional ownership there is ample room for institutional buying which is what really drives a stock higher. JMHO


EWZuber
1,373 posts
msg #29388
Ignore EWZuber
10/20/2003 7:45:42 PM

NVDA moved up just a tad today and the 15 DMA held as support. The encouraging sign in todays action is the Daily chart stochastics fast line and slow line are starting to converge.
This could be signaling the beginning of a new accumulation phase which could easily drive NVDA above resistance at the 25 & 50 DMAs.
The 50 DMA is flattening out which means that NVDA will have to be aggressive in the short term to catch it, break above it and test it as support if this is going to happen any time soon. The 25 DMA is still in too much of a downtrend to act as support for more than about a single session.
Short term trendline resistance is at $17.14 ( & falling ). Most easily seen on the hourly chart.
If the stock can break this short term resistance tomorrow and close above it, this would be a huge step toward breaking the 25 & 50 DMAs because the stock is overbought on the hourly chart and a continuation of this move would be a violation of the stochastic cycle and would start the oscillation process in an overbought condition. A very bullish indication. Also it would bring on a stochastic +xover on daily charts and then Weekly, Daily and Hourly waves would each be converged in accumulation phase. But we will have to wait and see. JMHO


EWZuber
1,373 posts
msg #29392
Ignore EWZuber
10/21/2003 2:41:57 PM

Intraday follow up.
NVDA gapped up a tad this morning and used the 25 DMA as temporary support. As I mentioned before this will not work longer term but acts as a good stepping stone temporarily. Consequently NVDA will need to get above the 50 DMA in a hurry. I suspect it will.
The 50 DMA is being tested as resistance right now.
Even if it holds as resistance today I suspect tomorrow morning NVDA will gap above the 50 DMA and test it as support or just break through it on an intraday run.
Volume is very good today and i suspect institutions are loading up.

The scene has been set and it looks like NVDA is about to start a long term move higher. But thats JMHO


EWZuber
1,373 posts
msg #29394
Ignore EWZuber
10/21/2003 2:50:32 PM

Looks like something might be happening at AAC. The stock that I started this thread with. It has been basing for quite a while and it looks like it may be getting ready to finally move. I suspect will know shortly.


EWZuber
1,373 posts
msg #29401
Ignore EWZuber
10/21/2003 5:38:23 PM

After the close,
NVDA closed todays gap in intraday trading and tested the 50 DMA as resistance and it held.
NVDA violated the Hourly chart stochastic cycle which drove the Daily chart stochastic cycle to +xover as anticipated. NVDA can not stay here though. So it seems now we have a few possibilities.
One, NVDA could drop to test short term trendline supprt at $17.35 on the 5 minute chart.
Two, NVDA could gap up in the morning to the 50 DMA @ $17.80.
Three, NVDA could complete the Hourly chart stochastic distribution cycle and drop to test the 15 HR.MA @ $17.14 ( & rising ).
Four, NVDA will stay on the 25 DMA and ride it down.

I suspect that NVDA will gap up above the 50 DMA and test it as support. These intraday support levels mean nothing to end of day traders. Big money realizes this. I suspect they also realize that NVDA can not find lasting support here because the 25 DMA is in a downtrend. With Daily, weekly and Quarterly chart waves all in phase and in accumulation with Monthly chart fast and slow lines converging at a cycle bottom, the stock should have a substantial upwared momentum building, which we have already evidenced. Volume is building. Notice how it took a break above the 25 DMA and short term 4 day TL resistance to attract enough attention to build the volume. While Big money has been entering positions for about 3 weeks. JMHO
Guess we'll see tomorrow.




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