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wallman
299 posts
msg #31320
Ignore wallman
3/8/2004 8:09:24 AM

ZUB, yes EAG for Monday does look good,i like the chances of RSTN and BABY also


abkhn00
4 posts
msg #31337
Ignore abkhn00
3/9/2004 6:31:48 PM

Zube,
Do you think this bull run is over? Looking at slow stochastic(5,3) I would have to say it is. The 5 year monthly has broken down for naz and is set to for sp500. the 10 year quarterly seems poised to break down as well. I locked in my profits on 401k and am getting ready to invest in a bear fund and am looking for some confirmation.
Thanks.


EWZuber
1,373 posts
msg #31338
Ignore EWZuber
3/9/2004 8:41:53 PM

abkhn00
Here'my take on it.
I suspect that the Monthly chart cycle will take us through a distribution phase at least through the Summer. What needs to be seen is what happens when/if the Monthly charts tests the 10, 15 and 25 Month Moving Averages at 1,900, 1,725, & 1,615 ( & rising ) respectively.
As you mentioned the Quarterly chart is topping out in an overbought condition.

No I don't think this Bull run is over. I suspect this is just a typical long term distribution phase within a Bull market. But I try not to get too much of a predisposed opinion, rather I just watch support and resistance areas and the interaction between stochastics on several charting periods.
The bear market fund sounds like a good idea for a few months, IMO.
Today .COMP broke through support at the 100 DMA.
Right now it looks like it will be testing the 25 WK.MA as support at 1,977. .COMP should be just about oversold enough to hold up around that level. When the next Weekly chart stochastic cycle fast line crosses BELOW the slow line, look out. I say this because the Monthly, Weekly and at some point the Daily charts also, will all be in phase in distribution mode. I suspect it will be a very good time to try short positions.
That may not be far off. This last fast line cross ABOVE the slow line on Weekly charts ( accumulation phase ) didn't even get off ther ground yet. This indicates how much the Monthly chart distribution phase is affecting the Weekly chart cycle now. The downward trend is building as Monthly chart distribution phase builds momentum.

Notice that the 25 DMA has been resistance for the past 6 weeks or so.

I am only taking long positions after a break of Trendline Resistance now because too many support areas are being violated. Also taking profits rather quickly these days because of the downward tendency of prices.
I'm finding that instead of waiting for a break of Trendline Support to close a position, it has been better to close them at resistance.
All JMHO

EMRG moving up I suspect. Watching for a break of TL Resistance at about $1.96 ( & falling ). Bought some earlier today and sold it after hours @ $2.12 so it looks like it may gap higher in the morning. Caution is advised.


EWZuber
1,373 posts
msg #31357
Ignore EWZuber
3/10/2004 6:26:14 PM

EMRG gapped and sold off as expected. Big money has been repeatedly using this ploy to get more money for their shares, baiting the little guy into buying at ridiculously high prices then selling into the strength.

.COMP bounced up exactly off of 1,977, attempted to form a double bottom on the 5 minute chart over the course of an hour but it failed.
It dropped below 1,977, then raised up to test it as resistance. When it was confirmed as resistance the index cratered. Dropping precipitously to 1,963.

.COMP is the most oversold on Daily charts that it has been all year at a stochastic value of 3.5.
Next support at about 1,900. If we don't see a bounce very soon tomorrow then it looks like the 200 DMA is the next support level.

Watched for an indication of accumulation at the end of the session but there didn't seem to be much. Not enough to commit even though many stocks are severely oversold.
This is why lately I have been waiting for a break of TL Resistance rather than buy at support.
Even today I bought CCUR on a break of TL resistance @ $3.64 on the 30 minute chart it traded higher to test resistance at the 50 HR.MA @ ~ $3.73, also forming a double top pattern, this was the exit. Then it broke down and cratered. For this act of survival I was penalized and have been reduced to only one trade left for the next 4 sessions. There is no equal access to the markets. Only the wealthy have equal access. lol.
Anyhow, this is why it is important to sell at resistance during these times, IMO. It's better to make a couple bucks than lose any. JMHO


wallman
299 posts
msg #31358
Ignore wallman
3/10/2004 7:46:47 PM

ZUB,any thoughts on DCTH, looks like a ubb runner,i caught it at 1.94 on a break from the bb squeeze on monster volume increase,just as i did on 1 - 7 under the exact same circumstances,in fact RSI 2 in both cases was the same at 67 before the break and now into the 90's which usually indicates a few days more run


travlr
80 posts
msg #31379
Ignore travlr
3/11/2004 1:09:29 PM

WOW ... Wallman!!!

Talk About Monster Volume... your DCTH is 88 times avg Vol, and it's only 1 PM.

Looove them squeezes!!!

travlr

PS... Thanks again for the smallcapcenter info you gave me the other day.


EWZuber
1,373 posts
msg #31381
Ignore EWZuber
3/11/2004 5:14:00 PM

wallman
Sorry missed your post till today. A monster run for sure. The set up was very nice from my perspective also. Closing the session yesterday slightly oversold on the hourly chart but breaking Trendline Resistance in the final two hours, extremely bullish and on a high volume day.
Longer term indicators, Monthly, Weekly chart stochastics are in accumulation. Daily chart was very bullish as it was oscillating in an overbought condition since 3/1. This reveals that the buying pressure has been so strong that as soon as one trader sells there are several waiting to buy his shares. Consequently the stock does not go into distribution.


EWZuber
1,373 posts
msg #31382
Ignore EWZuber
3/11/2004 5:14:44 PM

NASDAQ 1,900 getting closer.


EWZuber
1,373 posts
msg #31409
Ignore EWZuber
3/14/2004 11:21:50 PM

LUV just tested a 20 Month Supporting TL and bounced while volume asppears like capitulation the last few days. Monthly chart is extremely oversold and fast and slow stochastic lines are converging. This could be the convergence of events that is marking a long term bottom.
Considering recent market conditions it may be wise to wait for a break of TL. Resistance at about $14.30 ( & falling ) with stochastic +xover confirmation.
JMHO


EWZuber
1,373 posts
msg #31410
Ignore EWZuber
3/14/2004 11:45:31 PM

EGHT is testing an 8 month supporting trendline right now along with the 10 Month MA. Looks very tempting. EGHT closed above the short term Resistance TL ( Trend line ) on Friday. Looks like this could be a buy signal for me.


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