StockFetcher Forums · General Discussion · Latest IBD top 100 list (week of 10/19/09)<< 1 2 >>Post Follow-up
Kevin_in_GA
4,548 posts
msg #81557
Ignore Kevin_in_GA
modified
10/22/2009 3:31:21 PM

List deleted.

TheRumpledOne
6,362 posts
msg #81567
Ignore TheRumpledOne
10/22/2009 6:46:54 PM

They don't like it when you do that!!



TheRumpledOne
6,362 posts
msg #81568
Ignore TheRumpledOne
10/22/2009 6:47:46 PM

You may want to delete this thread and call it something else like

100 stocks lots of people look at on a weekly basis...LOL

Kevin_in_GA
4,548 posts
msg #81573
Ignore Kevin_in_GA
10/22/2009 8:32:37 PM

I bought the Monday paper which has this in it - once published, there is no proprietary right they can assert. I am not divulging anything that requires a subscription, nor have I agreed to any restrictions once I buy the newspaper.

That being said, please consider these simply "100 good stocks to look at".

Kevin

decipherlinda
133 posts
msg #81657
Ignore decipherlinda
10/23/2009 5:55:04 PM

I thought the same as TRO. Glad you clarified. Hope you continue to share.

trendscanner
265 posts
msg #81671
Ignore trendscanner
10/23/2009 10:45:03 PM

Kevin, just playing around with your IBD 100 list with some filters and backtesting out of curiosity:

Using your original close below LBB(16, 2.5), with confirmation (close above open), and exit criteria of close above UBB(16, 2.5) as a baseline:

Fetcher[
Count(close below lower bollinger band(16, 2.5), 4) > 0.5
close one day ago below open one day ago
close above open
apply to watchlist(IBD100)
]



Very good results overall.

There were 35 total stocks entered. Of those, 32 or 91.43% were complete and 3 or 8.57% were open.
Of the 32 completed trades, 29 trades or 90.62%resulted in a net gain.
Your average net change for completed trades was: 17.18%.
The average draw down of your approach was: -4.38%.
The average max profit of your approach was: 20.88%
The Reward/Risk ratio for this approach is: 18.92
Annualized Return on Investment (ROI): 233.74%, the ROI of ^SPX was: 62.25%.

Exit Statistics
Stop Loss was triggered 3 times or 9.38% of the time.
Stop Profit was triggered 0 times or 0.00% of the time.
Trailing Stop Loss was triggered 0 times or 0.00% of the time.
You held for the maximum period of time (25 days) 14 times or 43.75% of the time.
An exit trigger was executed 15 times or 46.88% of the time.


Using your original close below LBB(16, 2.5), with different confirmation (RSI(2) above RSI(2) 1 day ago) and exit criteria of close above UBB(16, 2.5)

Fetcher[
Count(close below lower bollinger band(16, 2.5), 3) > 0.5
Count(rsi(2) below 15, 3) > 0.5
rsi(2) above rsi(2) 1 day ago
apply to watchlist(IBD100)
]



There were 31 total stocks entered. Of those, 29 or 93.55% were complete and 2 or 6.45% were open.
Of the 29 completed trades, 28 trades or 96.55%resulted in a net gain.
Your average net change for completed trades was: 17.78%.
The average draw down of your approach was: -4.21%.
The average max profit of your approach was: 20.54%
The Reward/Risk ratio for this approach is: 52.58
Annualized Return on Investment (ROI): 227.48%, the ROI of ^SPX was: 62.25%.

Exit Statistics
Stop Loss was triggered 1 times or 3.45% of the time.
Stop Profit was triggered 0 times or 0.00% of the time.
Trailing Stop Loss was triggered 0 times or 0.00% of the time.
You held for the maximum period of time (25 days) 14 times or 48.28% of the time.
An exit trigger was executed 14 times or 48.28% of the time.

Different confirmation criteria didnít produce much different ROI results but reward risk ratio was better. Not sure why or what that means.

Out of curiosity, I tried a few different entry criteria for the same target list. This one produced the most interesting results. Used the same exit criteria for backtesting.

Fetcher[
Chaikins Volatility(10,10) reached new 6 week low
weekly rsi(2) > weekly rsi(2) one day ago
weekly rsi(2) < 80
Average Day Range(1) < 2
apply to watchlist(IBD100)
]



There were 31 total stocks entered. Of those, 26 or 83.87% were complete and 5 or 16.13% were open.
Of the 26 completed trades, 25 trades or 96.15%resulted in a net gain.
Your average net change for completed trades was: 10.14%.
The average draw down of your approach was: -3.25%.
The average max profit of your approach was: 12.53%
The Reward/Risk ratio for this approach is: 102.82
Annualized Return on Investment (ROI): 195.60%, the ROI of ^SPX was: 62.25%.

Exit Statistics
Stop Loss was triggered 0 times or 0.00% of the time.
Stop Profit was triggered 0 times or 0.00% of the time.
Trailing Stop Loss was triggered 0 times or 0.00% of the time.
You held for the maximum period of time (25 days) 7 times or 26.92% of the time.
An exit trigger was executed 19 times or 73.08% of the time.

This last filter entered some trades when the stocks were seemingly idle. ROI wasnít as good as for LBB entry trigger but the Reward Risk ratio was the best of the scenarios tested.

I donít know that too many conclusions can be drawn from this type of backtesting. Future similar results would depend on the market continuing to act as it has for the last 6 months and Iím not convinced thatís necessarily going to happen. I think the IBD 100 remains a good target list for trading though and a variety of ways available to trade them.

Thanks for continuing to update the IBD lists! Very useful!


burns1971
16 posts
msg #81674
Ignore burns1971
10/24/2009 8:04:34 AM

Kevin,
Thanks for taking the time to post this list.

Kevin_in_GA
4,548 posts
msg #81676
Ignore Kevin_in_GA
10/24/2009 9:57:39 AM

Yeah, these are pretty solid stocks.

If you were to have purchased the current top 10 on this list 3 months ago, you would be up 40.65% as of yesterday.

stratiG
147 posts
msg #81677
Ignore stratiG
10/24/2009 10:28:42 AM

Kevin_in_GA
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA 10/22/2009 8:32:37 PM

I bought the Monday paper which has this in it - once published, there is no proprietary right they can assert. I am not divulging anything that requires a subscription, nor have I agreed to any restrictions once I buy the newspaper.

That being said, please consider these simply "100 good stocks to look at".

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

eh Kevin.

i talked to my lawyer wife and your analysis might be a little off here. A publisher has proprietary rights in what it publishes (articles, etc.) and doesn't lose those rights on publication. In this case, IBD would have a copyright in the list (there is a Supreme Court case (Feist) that says that list compilations are protected by copyright if they meet certain criteria. For example, the phonebook is not copyrightable because simply listing names alphabetically doesn't demonstrate the creativity required to claim a copyright interest.) Newspapers were pretty lenient before about not asserting their proprietary rights when articles, headlines, etc. were published on blogs because they thought it would direct traffic back to their sites. Now that the newspaper business is in trouble, they have been pretty aggressive in protecting their copyrights because they believe blogs and other sites take away traffic and therefore revenue. Just trying to help out, do what you wish with the info.

stratiG

Kevin_in_GA
4,548 posts
msg #81683
Ignore Kevin_in_GA
10/24/2009 1:47:40 PM

I have removed the list from this post, since there is some confusion about its proprietary nature.

Kevin



StockFetcher Forums · General Discussion · Latest IBD top 100 list (week of 10/19/09)<< 1 2 >>Post Follow-up

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