StockFetcher Forums · General Discussion · New To Trading<< 1 2 3 4 >>Post Follow-up
travlr
80 posts
msg #30141
Ignore travlr
12/5/2003 12:14:50 AM

Hey, Actually I'm reading your past posts so don't feel it necessary to detail a response to my last one. Thanks.


oldsmar52
104 posts
msg #30143
Ignore oldsmar52
12/5/2003 2:13:31 PM

To Traveler,
You say you don't gamble...that gets a DUH! If you don't gamble why would you consider getting in the market...that's legalized gambling at its best.


Skeksis
36 posts
msg #30144
Ignore Skeksis
12/5/2003 2:34:07 PM

People view "gambling" in different ways. Yes, by the book, it would be considered gambling overall, as it is a venture of chance. However, some people see pure gambling as a pure blind bet with no edge or skill involved, such as the purchase of a lottery ticket or a spot on a roulette table. I believe that is more what he was referring to when he said he didn't gamble. The "blind" aspect of gambling is minimized with the edge that market knowledge, money management, and the application of good filters and indicators, etc. provide. On a side note, many longer term "investors" I have conversed with in the past consider short term trading to be gambling, while long term investing is not. I think that train of thought is a bit odd and off base in that we are all looking for the same thing in the market, just over different time frames and analysis methods.


travlr
80 posts
msg #30145
Ignore travlr
12/5/2003 2:48:50 PM

Oldsmar,

IMO, I will respond.

Risk! I feel that a gambler is one who only employs a basic strategy. Maybe a little more maybe a little less. A stratiegest is one who exhausts all possible means to accomlish a favorable probability to succesful prediction. One who has considered all possible contingencies and their coupled exit strategies. Has fully enabled a thoughtful risk vs. reward practicallity. would you categorize a casino operator as a gambler. I certainly wouldn't. the casino Knows that it has an edge over the "house" therefore they welcome their clientle with open arms.
I guess I might also be refered to as smart money vs. dumb money(as the saying goes). JMHO.


travlr
80 posts
msg #30146
Ignore travlr
12/5/2003 2:51:56 PM

Skekis,
My thought's exactly... you beat me to the punch. lol


travlr
80 posts
msg #30147
Ignore travlr
12/5/2003 4:11:27 PM

This line...

[I guess I might also be refered to as smart money vs. dumb money(as the saying goes)]

was supposed to be : ."IT" not "I"


EWZuber
1,373 posts
msg #30148
Ignore EWZuber
12/5/2003 5:42:10 PM

travlr
I use stochastic timing ( 5,3 ) in all chart periodicities. The slow line is smoothed, the fast line is forward weighted. This is what creates the divergence and convergences. Basically it represents the battle between the sellers and buyers. When buyers begin to take control the Fast line will cross above the Slow line & vise versa.
Trend lines I draw by hand. If you decide to buy on a break of a Resistance Trendline on the 5 minute chart then the sell trigger, the break of the Supporting Trendline, will also have to be on the 5 minute chart.
If your time line is a bit longer and you do not like to daytrade, then a break of the Resistance Trendline on hourly charts can be used ( along with the resultant horizontal line ) as the entry signal. This will offer a safer entry with less trading but will miss the bottom by a slightly higher percentage.
Once a Supporting Trendline can be established on the Hourly chart then a candlestick that closes below this Trendline ( and the resultant horizontal line ) can be used for the sell signal. If your time line is short the 5 minute chart can still be used for the sell signal and will likely give better results in the short term but will require more trading to maintain a position in the stock.
You can still buy on the 5 minute chart then if the TL is not violated here then use the TL on the hourly chart as the position matures. Later TLs on Daily charts can be used.

For Moving Averages, 15, 25 & 50 periods on 5 Minute & 1 Hour charts.

15, 25, 50, 100 & 200 on Daily charts. ( & 10 DMA with very aggressive stocks ).
10, 15, 25 & 50 period on Weekly charts.
10, 15, 25 on Monthly charts.

On the 5 minute charts a '15 period' moving average is a tad more than a 1 Hour Moving Average. 25 period is about 2 Hour MA and 50 period about a 4 HR. MA.

You can wait for a stochastic confirmation of the TL break to close the position, particularly if you have a good profit under you. I usually close out with new positions as soon as the horizontal line is broken with a single candlestick closing below the line. I do this because I would rather have a profit in hand than wait for confirmation and see my profits go down the drain.
However when opening a position I must see stochastic confirmation.

//"Note. where the trendline is broken draw a horizontal line to the right. This is the actual line that needs to be violated."//
* On a bounce w/ stoch varification?

( using Bigcharts for repeatability ) Look at a 5 minute chart of EGO. If you draw a trendline from the low at 10:10 @ $3.28 up to the low of 11:40 @ $3.45 and continue the line up. The TL is broken at 11:55. Then draw a horizontal line to the right where this TL is broken you will see that this line was not violated until 12:10 when the candlestick closed below this line.

As far as shorting goes, I was refering to watching long term stochastics for the first inclination that the markets will be heading lower. I would not short unless I could see a convergence of fast and slow lines in an overbought condition on at least weekly charts and preferably Monthly charts too.
When the trendline is broken on daily charts and the longer tyerm chart agrees then a short is worth the risk, IMO.

A good example is AHR. Start with a 1 Year, Monthly chart. Draw in the supporting trendline and you will see that it was violated exactly where the stochastics had a fast line cross below the slow line and started distribution phase. Then switch to Weekly periodicity. Same thing. When these events converge then it is time to look at the daily chart and here we draw a trendline ( because of more detail in the shorter term chart ) from the low in May on 5/12 connecting most all the lows and this supporting trendline is broken on 6/20 and the horizontal line is also violated the same day.
If you went into the Hourly chart an even more precision short position entry can be found using the same criteria.

Don't understand this question..."DMI for market day or individuals as well? "

I'm using IB also and have options account but don't use it. I'm going to wait until i have more capitol.
This is all JMHO









travlr
80 posts
msg #30154
Ignore travlr
12/6/2003 11:11:53 AM

Thanks alot for your reply.

I'll be working on my starting to trade, Monday. The description of your methods have confirmed what I've been working on all along. Once again, thanks for your time.


travlr
80 posts
msg #30155
Ignore travlr
12/6/2003 1:19:29 PM

EW Zuber,

To me, it's important to note... I should have includeded ("expanded upon my studies") as well. I say this because, generally speaking, not alot of people give a damn to help others. It's because of people like yourself, Wallman, and others here, that I took an especial interest to this forum. I'm in the process of utilizing your offerings, along with my previous understandings to makes the best picks I can for my introduction on Monday.


travlr
80 posts
msg #30156
Ignore travlr
12/6/2003 1:45:20 PM

I was looking at the examples you provided to me. and started with bigcharts as you do ... I couldn't see where the default 5,5 setting could be changed to a 5,3.
After going through the examples (ego,ahr), I went to prophet.net's charts which I am more familiar with. Prophet's seem to be more precise which give a slightly different perspective(may be important when following intraday). ie. lining up the lows on ego, sends you slightly further out(violation at the 12:10 bar). the resulting exit is the same, but I guess I was wondering why you use bigcharts if you are familiar w/ prophet.


StockFetcher Forums · General Discussion · New To Trading<< 1 2 3 4 >>Post Follow-up

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