StockFetcher Forums · General Discussion · Noah's Theory Redone<< 1 2 >>Post Follow-up
Noahedwinbeach2
135 posts
msg #26905
Ignore Noahedwinbeach2
6/17/2003 12:22:02 AM

I have found a simple filter that produces amazing results. I have also decided to hold stocks longer than 10 days. I have figured out that just isn't enough time for a stock to do a natural correction and then come out of that correction to make me an extremely large profit. I would like to hold stocks for a min. of 20 trading days now. 60 days seems to be perfect producing 100%. Here is the filter I am using.

Show stocks where MACD fast line(12,26) crossed above MACD slow line(12,26) within the last 1 day
and Average Volume(90) is above 50000
and close is between 1 and 2

RULES:
1.


Noahedwinbeach2
135 posts
msg #26906
Ignore Noahedwinbeach2
6/17/2003 12:26:29 AM

sorry..

RULES:
1. $100 / stock. (If you have large sums of money do more of course)
2. Hold for atleast 20 days no matter if a particular stock falls or not
3. Sell after 60 days unless you feel as though the stock is still rising at a consistent rate.
4. Thats it!

You may have to buy your stocks over several days for instance: if day 1 only 6 stocks were returned in the filter then you would only buy $600 worth of stock that day. Do that until you have no more money left. Remember you pretty much have a 50/50 chance of winning or losing. With this filter it seems its more like 75/25. I will try this for a while. I figured it will limit my losses of anything.


Noahedwinbeach2
135 posts
msg #26907
Ignore Noahedwinbeach2
6/17/2003 12:26:57 AM

That is 20 trading days by the way.


makeroftrades
29 posts
msg #26940
Ignore makeroftrades
6/19/2003 12:00:05 AM

can you elaborate on this 100.00 a stock , what about a3.00 -5.00 dollar stock , whihc range are you speaking of and what buy amounts and why 20 days

thanks


EWZuber
1,373 posts
msg #26951
Ignore EWZuber
6/19/2003 6:43:40 PM

Noahedwinbeach2
Just wanted to suggest you look into using stochastics resistance and volume to determine how long to hold a stock rather than a given number of days. If you use a predetermined length of time you could be selling just after the stock breaks out and miss the majority of a rally or sell at a stochastic bottom and get substantially less than if you held a while longer. Just a suggestion.


dmindy
42 posts
msg #26955
Ignore dmindy
6/20/2003 1:39:10 AM

Or at least just put a VERY tight stop loss on after your day limit. (Even 1%!)

That way you keep it as long as it's going up. Why sell if it's going up?


rrochon
117 posts
msg #27102
Ignore rrochon
6/27/2003 3:13:50 PM

Noah, on your 20 day hold re-do, do you buy on the open, at 12:30 or if the stock has gone up 1-3% after the close that triggered the filter?

Dick


JoeGrossinger
165 posts
msg #27111
Ignore JoeGrossinger
6/28/2003 2:20:44 PM

Hey Noah, I have always liked the MACD buy signals. They seem very accurate over all kinds of markets. Ditto for the sell signal.

I tried out your filter and modified it a bit.
Show stocks where MACD fast line(12,26) crossed above MACD slow line(12,26) within the last 1 day
where volume reached a new 100 day high
and Average Volume(90) is above 50000
and close is between 1 and 5

In playing with this version I find it gives very good very short term signals.
Try it out on time periods of 15 days or less.
You will get very few hits to wade through but the ones it gives are good.
Ignore the performance numbers and just look at the chart.
Buy day one and sell about 2 to 3 days later seems to work very well for this in this market.

http://www.koliga.com/forum/viewforum.php?f=11



Noahedwinbeach2
135 posts
msg #27276
Ignore Noahedwinbeach2
7/8/2003 11:05:53 PM

thats a good simple filter and it works.


holygrail
72 posts
msg #27278
Ignore holygrail
7/8/2003 11:26:59 PM

For the record, this is NOT Holygrail. This is his trading buddy.

=====================================

TRADING THEORY - as of June 2, 2003

=====================================

As I see it, there are to parts to making money in the stock market

1) Stock selection

2) Trading tactics

I believe trading tactics are more important... it is NOT what stock you trade, but how you trade it.

However, selecting stocks that have a higher probabilty of going up than down definitely will give you an edge.

By selecting stocks that have bottomed on the RSI(2) on the daily chart, then have had OPEN = CLOSE (or close to it), and finally had the RSI(2) cross above the RSI(3), you get that edge.

Daytrading vs. Swing Trading

Some people can't sit in front of the monitor and trade stocks all day. Some don't want to. But a few of us stock nuts do.

For those who can't or don't, our swing trading tactics allow you to profit on a daily and/or short term basis.

If you can't sleep if you own stocks, worried that the sky will fall before you can sell, then you simple buy the stocks at the open and sell them at the close. For those who want to ride the stocks up as long as it last, you buy the stocks at the open and set a stop loss at 70% - 85% of the price you paid. That's a potential 30% loss you might say! However, since our list has selected stocks that have bottomed out, we reduce the probality that a 30% loss will occur. At the end of the day, you modify your stop to 85% - 95% of the high of the day remembering that you never move a stop down only up. So, if day three's high is lower than day two's high, you leave the stop alone.

By buying equal dollar amounts of the entire list, you give yourself another edge, you will reap the benefits of each stock that pops that day. It seems like one, two or more stocks have 10% or better gains the first day they appear on the list. Just think about it. If there were five stocks on the list and 4 of them broke even but one went up 20%, you will easily make your 2% daily goal.

For the record, this is NOT Holygrail. This is his trading buddy.




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