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ctrout
122 posts
msg #64259
Ignore ctrout
6/23/2008 11:07:14 PM

Trendsurfer:

I too like the wind plays. I am holding off on this ETF though as a lot of these large foreign wind plays are sporting rather high valuations. If it falls to 25 or so they valuation will be in line.

The wind plays in Europe have been around a lot longer than in North America. Most of the stocks in the FAN index are available on the Pink sheet here. I pulled up a few charts and they look extended. Best to you.

ctrout
122 posts
msg #64269
Ignore ctrout
modified
6/24/2008 12:54:47 AM

JP:

Regarding the 34 EMA on AAPL, I checked it with Stockcharts, Interactive Brokers,
Tradestation , amd Prophet.net. They all show AAPL 34 day EMA within a few pennies of one another at 178.20 to 178.29.

Obviously whatever you are using is working but I just thought you would want to know what some other providers are showing.

Your right about GOOG on that close. I will watch is closely and close it out. Looks like it broke a trendline. I will give it a percent or two and that's it.

Thanks for pointing that out.



TrendSurfer
109 posts
msg #64274
Ignore TrendSurfer
modified
6/24/2008 2:31:48 AM

ctrout...

I took this as a speculative play in my core account with a longer term view. I'm willing to give it some time work out. Of course I'll drop it like a hot potato if it don't hold it's current pricing. Even so, there are strong growth prospects and I'll be in and out with the longer term waves soon as the price chart has had enough time to create some.

Here is some info and buzz from various sources I used for consideration:::

Sixteen percent of the fund is allocated to the U.S. with some weighting in Denmark, Germany, the U.K. and Spain.

The U.S. isn't the only country interested in wind power.

UK ministers want a six-fold increase in the amount of energy generated by wind farms by 2020. That would mean that another 4,000 wind turbines would be build across the UK, adding to the 2,000 onshore turbines already in place.

Just last month, the government announced plans for another 7,000 turbines off the coast.

An Energy Department study found that wind energy could generate 20% of U.S. electricity by 2030, as compared to today's one percent.

The good news - The Energy Department report finds that achieving a 20% wind contribution to U.S. electricity supply would:

Reduce carbon dioxide emissions from electricity generation by 25 percent in 2030.
Reduce natural gas use by 11%;
Reduce water consumption associated with electricity generation by 4 trillion gallons by 2030;
Increase annual revenues to local communities to more than $1.5 billion by 2030; and
Support roughly 500,000 jobs in the U.S., with an average of more than 150,000 workers directly employed by the wind industry.
To achieve 20%, wind turbines would have to produce 300,000 megawatts of power, compared to today's generated 16,000 megawatts.

Billionaire investors are lining up for a piece of the coming wind energy boom, including T. Boone Pickens, who believes that by reducing oil imports by 38% would save us nearly $300 billion a year.

"It's time we got serious about using [wind power]," he said.

Pickens' Mesa Power just ordered 667 turbines from General Electric to begin a $10 billion wind far project in Texas. When completed by 2014, the wind farm will be capable of producing 4,000 megawatts, or enough energy to power 1.2 million U.S. homes.

"Oil fields have a declining curve - you find one, it peaks and starts downhill, you've got to find another one to replace it. It drives you crazy! With wind, there's no decline. "You need a giant plan for America," he says. "Not the pissant 83 megawatt [windfarm] deals being stamped all over the country. There needs to be a huge plan from someone with leadership. It's going to take years to do, but it has to start now."

Says Brian Hicks:

"We simply cannot ignore about the wind energy market is its growth during 2007. Last year, a record-breaking 20,000 megawatts (MW) of wind power were installed around the world. That means that wind energy supplied approximately 94,000 MW of energy. In other words, that's a growth of around $36 billion.

Putting this into perspective...

Between 2005 and 2007, both Germany and Spain's wind power capacity experienced impressive growth (about 21% and 51%, respectively). Now look back at the U.S. growth.
Our capacity catapulted nearly 84%!

Since 2000, wind power production has increased fivefold. During that period, oil prices have grown nearly the amount. Now that a peak oil is starting to get under the global spotlight, expect to see a massive interest in renewables like wind energy.

We're talking about a source of energy that is a renewable, clean, has a low operating cost and has technology that's been around for over century (the first power producing windmill was created back in 1887).

But it isn't just the past growth. Over the next two years, the Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC) predicts that the world's installed wind power capacity will practically double to 149.5 GW. The installed capacity in 2007 was 94,000 MW-which was higher than originally forecasted!"


johnpaulca
10,080 posts
msg #64277
Ignore johnpaulca
6/24/2008 10:39:20 AM

rtucker: on MTL...I circled the ema(34)

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rtucker
318 posts
msg #64279
Ignore rtucker
6/24/2008 11:51:19 AM

JRCC at 57.55 and a stop on MTL at LOD.


rtucker
318 posts
msg #64283
Ignore rtucker
6/24/2008 12:29:30 PM

Buying a little on a speculative play AMSC ( a breakout today) at 45.29

johnpaulca
10,080 posts
msg #64291
Ignore johnpaulca
6/24/2008 3:23:03 PM

POT...shorted@$232, I shouldn't have covered yesterday

rtucker
318 posts
msg #64297
Ignore rtucker
modified
6/24/2008 5:02:30 PM

On a day like this, stops are indeed a beautiful thing!

Seems like the generals( fertilizer, coal, etc...) are being taken out to the woodshed. Bearish indeed.

Jp, I dont short stocks, but , maybe have a look at the ipo IPI. It has run up 50% in a few weeks and it aint no Potash Inc.

alf44
2,025 posts
msg #64309
Ignore alf44
modified
6/24/2008 11:01:09 PM

...where tha HELL is niko ???

Haven't seen him in a few days !

ctrout
122 posts
msg #64311
Ignore ctrout
6/25/2008 12:54:48 AM

Trendsurfer:

I am with you on the long term prospect in the U.S. on wind. Europe is way in front of the U.S. and so are its major players. I believe the only big boy player here is GE (turbines). I recently was stopped out of that after a 10% loss (ouch). GE has too many other problems.

My point is they have run up those stocks so they need a pullback. The plays I currently own that have some Wind exposure or carbon related (blades) exposure are AMN,AMSC,APWR,KDN,KHD,OC,TRN,TTEK,WGOV,ZOLT. Even with the recent meltdown they have held up okay for the most part. I have no intention of selling them and will add FAN to the mix if a pullback occurs.

Good Luck to you (and me too)

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