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maxreturn
745 posts
msg #59891
Ignore maxreturn
2/23/2008 2:11:49 PM

Thanks Dean. No need to spoon feed me. Been around for a while. Not as long as you :). That's more than enough to get me off on my own do to some research. Thanks again for sharing.

Max

deanengle
33 posts
msg #59892
Ignore deanengle
2/23/2008 6:58:39 PM

Maxreturn just a little crumb for Monday, it may or may not work, check it out
I have selected LNET as it appears to have a high probability to bounce up this next week. This stock lost just over $6.00 in 3 days over some bad earnings and of some note is that the analysts following this stock did not down grade it at this time. The Black Schoals value of the option is $1.20 and the ask price is $1.25 so we are in the ball park for valuation. This stock has a 20 % move to double the option price so it must move up by $2.50 for a 100 % increase in the option value. The implied volatility is 61 % I generally prefer a 10 % to double factor but I feel this stock will have a dynamic move the first of the week. WE SHALL SEE

EWZuber
1,373 posts
msg #59893
Ignore EWZuber
modified
2/24/2008 12:14:26 AM

deanengle, I think there is a more disciplined way. Possibly not as simple but I suspect more effective.
First there must be some kind of support at the point on entry. If the stock has dropped ~25% then it will very likely need to be long term support, like a long term supporting trendline or a moving average on the Weekly or Monthly Chart.
Daily and Weekly Chart Stochastics & Williams %R will need to be oversold (at a minimum).
If the technical damage has spread to the Monthly Chart then I wouldn't even bother until some support area has been reached within that time frame.
Next look for the Hourly Chart to also become oversold.
From this point there are two methods of entry.

1) Wait for the 5 minute or Hourly Chart 10 periood MA to flatten out. Then wait for the stock to rise above the 10 period MA and bounce up off this moving average. This bounce must be accompanied with a stochastic +Xover in that time frame.

2) Wait for a consolidation pattern to form (within one of those two time frames) and enter the stock when that pattern is resolved. This is probably the safer of the two methods as you're not trying to catch a falling knife. That is to say, find the exact bottom.

Using this system you are supplied with a very disciplined sell stop when the pattern support within that time frame is violated.
If the entry point fails quickly then typically the position can be closed at a small profit or at a loss of <1%.

Wait for the buy signals to set up again and try the next buy signal.
IMO

deanengle
33 posts
msg #59905
Ignore deanengle
modified
2/24/2008 8:03:34 PM

EWZuber, you make some very good points which I am sure are going to help make more consistent winners. Just being fat, dumb and happy, I have always taken the large drop, confirmed the technicals had hit bottom and then I would buy. I have has substantial success with this simplistic method, however, I hope to experiment with the information you have provided and hope it may polish up my little dead cat bounce system. Thanks a lot for your input, I have been doing this for a while and there are times when I can not see the trees for the bushes.......CARPE DIEM.......Dean

johnpaulca
10,091 posts
msg #59917
Ignore johnpaulca
2/25/2008 10:49:10 AM

Niko...remember CRM ....take a look see ....LOL

mimi
63 posts
msg #59918
Ignore mimi
modified
2/25/2008 11:13:49 AM

1day swing LONG

DIA 123-124.5
DIA 123-124.9
DIA 123-125.7

Image and video hosting by TinyPic

WOW, I could post chart!

nikoschopen
2,824 posts
msg #59919
Ignore nikoschopen
2/25/2008 11:23:07 AM

Niko...remember CRM ....take a look see ....LOL

Who would have known? LOL

The market looks somewhat tipsy here. With the lunchtime doldrum unaccounted for, it could possibly be topping out (or simply revisit yawnville as it did on Friday).

nikoschopen
2,824 posts
msg #59920
Ignore nikoschopen
2/25/2008 11:30:24 AM

Short ESH8 @ 1360.75

johnpaulca
10,091 posts
msg #59921
Ignore johnpaulca
2/25/2008 11:32:51 AM

HES...out@96.75...(+4%)

MUR...out@78.75...(+5.1%)

Ya gotta love this market... what's funny is my filter consists of 5 lines and that includes liquidity. As TRO said it's how you trade that will make you money.

-cheers

nikoschopen
2,824 posts
msg #59922
Ignore nikoschopen
2/25/2008 11:39:33 AM

Short ESH8 @ 1360.75

Covered @ 1357.75

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