StockFetcher Forums · General Discussion · Shorting as a way of life<< 1 2 >>Post Follow-up
newskate
29 posts
msg #27677
Ignore newskate
8/4/2003 8:21:34 PM

Here's a question. I've grown attached to the Muddy Methods and all the great support of the "following"; it's terrific. I'm intrigued however with a nagging question. It appears to me that stock go down easier than they go up. It also then follows that filters could be built for just that [although I've not seen many discussed here - maybe that's a sign]. If the premise is correct, then:

1. Is shorting a viable alternative to going long? If not, why not?
2. Are most / all stocks shortable?
3. Do all brokers handle shorts? Some better than others?
4. If one could create a filter that looked for enormous volume stocks to short, to guarantee the sells / buys - would this work as an alternative and maybe as an "only" strategy.

The reason I ask - I've created filters that are terrible - they hit for short term gains maybe 30% of the time. OR, have I found a 70% shorting filter that works wonders????

Thanks for thinking about it, Stephen


xplorer
257 posts
msg #27678
Ignore xplorer
8/4/2003 10:39:29 PM

You hit it on the head ... stock fall faster then they climb. I too have attempted to focus on screens that help to select the most likely to crash ... easier then it sounds. It can be very viable ... but just as option trading can be very rewarding, there are also time bombs ready to explode. Take a look at the screen below ... and do some back testing ... alot of good shorts come up ...but occasionally one rebounds with a 50% gain ...ugh.

No not all stocks can be shorted ... I am not sure what the criteria is , but believe it to be volume related. When you short a stock, your broker has to "borrow" the stock. Also, the broker can call and have you "cover your shorts".... or sometimes refered to "being called out" at any time. It is not like you can always "ride it out"...as you could with owning a stock.

I know you have more questions then I answered ... but I hope this heads you on the right path ...


Here is my "SLAM DUNK"
Stock
Fetcher[
Show stocks where
Volume is less then Average Volume(5) and
volume is greater then 125000 and
close is between 1 and 12 and
tdrei(20) is below 1 and
stochRSI(14,5) is above 0.98 and
draw RSI(14)
]



A little about the screen :
Simple and Sweet...
Volume is dwindling .... usually prior to breakouts.
Volume is a "tradeable equity" ... above 125000
Low enough priced to fit my budget 1 to 12
StochRSI ...stochastics that use RSI values rather then price (overbought).
TDREI ... another good indicator of overbought ( could be used as oversold too).

Hope it helps !



newskate
29 posts
msg #27680
Ignore newskate
8/4/2003 10:51:59 PM

X - thanks for taking time to respond and your perspective. What I am about to say I say with a smile on my face and actually laughing - is this a joke???!! I opened your filter and back tested for 20, 19, 18, 11, etc. days and this looks like one the best short term long filters I've seen in a long time? :)

Am I doing something wrong?

Stephen


xplorer
257 posts
msg #27681
Ignore xplorer
8/4/2003 11:05:15 PM

Holy Sh_t ! ... you are right ! It is meant for short trades like 2-3 days ... but maybe this IS one to trade long 5 to 10 days after the trigger ... too funny. I hear best inventions were uncovered by mistake....LMAO !!! I'll have to rename this the "backhanded mystery"...
(...any way to withdraw a post ??? )


jim_c_hill
61 posts
msg #27683
Ignore jim_c_hill
8/4/2003 11:57:59 PM

I have occasionally developed filters for short trading and rarely find one that is consistently good as a short filter. Lately I developedthe following one and it has the best consistency of those that I have looked at. However, it does have some up periods. It does very well if the market is weak. It can do well when market is up, but not consistently but better than many filters that I have developed. One might develop a hedged approach with it. I have not tweaked it entirely nor looked at it with other indicators. Feel free to improve it and let us know your results.

stock
Fetcher[1 day slope of weekly LRI(12) is below -.02 and price is between 5 and 25 and weekly rsi(2) crossed below 70
and average volume is above 100000
]









jim_c_hill
61 posts
msg #27690
Ignore jim_c_hill
8/5/2003 12:43:00 PM

Re: Filter posted above.
As noted previously shorting may involve short time periods. I would not stay with the filter beyond one week unless the market is in a bear condition.
JH


petrolpeter
439 posts
msg #27691
Ignore petrolpeter
8/5/2003 1:59:14 PM

Here is a pool to pick from,
Fetcher[Show stocks where price touched upper bollinger band and weekly RSI(5) is below weekly RSI(5) 2 days ago and average volume is above 100000 and close is between 1 and 120]

.A bounce off the upper BB.I check it when market gets overheated or is pulling back.


tomm1111
197 posts
msg #67032
Ignore tomm1111
9/7/2008 12:42:36 AM

a deep from within the SF forum bowels, fossilized, full of dust............BUMP!

I applied a version of the weekly Williams%R(2) on Mr. jim_c_hill's original short filter to replace the (Friday updating) weekly rsi(2). Over the long haul, it reduced the hit rate a bit while maintaining the quality. Obviously, over the past few days it performed well. Credit goes to jim_c_hill. Are you still active on the forum?

Here it is:

Fetcher[
/*Short - Weekly Williams %R(2) Variation*/

set{abc1, Day Position(1,10) - close}
set{abc2, Day Position(1,10) - Day Position(0,10)}
set{q5, abc1 / abc2}
set{wk_billy, q5 * -100}

show stocks where 2 day slope of weekly LRI(12) is below -.02
and price is between 5 and 25
and wk_billy crossed below -20
draw wk_billy line at -80
and average volume is above 100000
]










TheRumpledOne
6,358 posts
msg #67034
Ignore TheRumpledOne
9/7/2008 12:48:31 AM

You guys are approaching it from the wrong direction!

Use my RUN FOREST, RUN filter and look back 4 weeks.

What do you see in the performance column?

A SEA OF RED!!



ludowillems
90 posts
msg #67038
Ignore ludowillems
9/7/2008 7:48:59 AM

Hi all,
Some time ago i posted a filter "short on BB" that performs well in declining markets: (run it with a date offset of 10 and see what happens) This is short-term stuff, I take profit as soon as close dives below MA(15), unless the trend down is very strong, i take of half my position at downcross MA(15) and the rest when candle hits lower BB 2
Comments and suggestions are very welcom
Fetcher[
and open 3 DAYs AGO is above upper Bollinger Band(20,2.0) 3 DAYs AGO and below upper Bollinger Band(20,3.0) 5 days ago
and close 3 DAYs AGO is above upper bollinger band(20,2.0) 3 DAYs AGO and below upper bollinger band(20,3.0) 5 days ago
and close 3 DAYs AGO is below open 3 DAY AGO
and price 3 DAYs AGO is above 10 and volume 3 DAY AGO is greater than 100000
and price 3 DAYs AGO is above MA(15) 3 DAY AGO by at least 30%
and Average Day Range(30) 3 DAYs AGO is more than 2 %
and 30 day slope of MA(50) 3 DAYs AGO is below 0
open < close 1 day ago
and draw bollinger band(20,2.0)
and draw bollinger band(20,3.0)
]


Ludo

StockFetcher Forums · General Discussion · Shorting as a way of life<< 1 2 >>Post Follow-up

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