StockFetcher Forums · General Discussion · Statistical probabilities<< >>Post Follow-up
671 posts
msg #117382
Ignore miketranz
12/16/2013 8:43:45 PM

Does anyone know of a web site or possibly a trading platform that calculates the odds in percentages,of a specific trading scenario being profitable? Thanks.....

805 posts
msg #117414
Ignore marine2
12/18/2013 3:34:59 PM

Your not thinking about, Stock Trader's Almanac are you? There they have statistics on seasonal probabilities up the ying yang.

3,867 posts
msg #117416
Ignore Kevin_in_GA
12/18/2013 4:03:16 PM

Wouldn't that simply be the results of a backtest on a specific strategy or price pattern? You might want to check out Thomas Bulkowski's pattern site as this does have a number of statistical analyses of patterns and outcomes.

Also check out - they have looked at a whole bunch of common trading strategies and different entry conditions. Very robust analyses, really good work.

6,358 posts
msg #117419
Ignore TheRumpledOne
12/18/2013 4:51:16 PM

You can use SF filters to do this depending on your criteria.

671 posts
msg #117421
Ignore miketranz
12/18/2013 9:48:43 PM

I was looking more towards intraday stats,primarily the first half hour of trading.There's no real info out there based on this time frame.You know,the period they tell you in the books to avoid.In my opinion,if you can't make it the first half hour on a day trade,you're definitely not going to make it after that.I would like to know what the percentages are,based on the SPY/DJIA or QQQQ's,of price moving in a certain direction off the open.It could be after a gap up,gap down,if the market is moving up or down the first 15 mins ect.It's one thing to know what the numbers are,it's another thing to guess.The markets a numbers game,not a guessing game.That's why 95% of it's participants lose money on a consistent basis.Thanks for any info,much appreciated,happy holidays.Miketranz.......

268 posts
msg #117514
Ignore novacane32000
12/25/2013 11:08:08 PM

Check out -- Trade with the Odds by Anthony Trangone. He basically uses excel to track the market intraday under different conditions.

I tried it for several months and actually obtained some decent useable data but it just became to burdensome.

StockFetcher Forums · General Discussion · Statistical probabilities<< >>Post Follow-up

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