miketranz
956 posts
msg #117382
- Ignore miketranz |
12/16/2013 8:43:45 PM
Does anyone know of a web site or possibly a trading platform that calculates the odds in percentages,of a specific trading scenario being profitable? Thanks.....
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marine2
963 posts
msg #117414
- Ignore marine2 |
12/18/2013 3:34:59 PM
Your not thinking about, Stock Trader's Almanac are you? There they have statistics on seasonal probabilities up the ying yang.
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #117416
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
12/18/2013 4:03:16 PM
Wouldn't that simply be the results of a backtest on a specific strategy or price pattern? You might want to check out Thomas Bulkowski's pattern site as this does have a number of statistical analyses of patterns and outcomes.
Also check out www.oxfordstrat.com - they have looked at a whole bunch of common trading strategies and different entry conditions. Very robust analyses, really good work.
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TheRumpledOne
6,407 posts
msg #117419
- Ignore TheRumpledOne |
12/18/2013 4:51:16 PM
You can use SF filters to do this depending on your criteria.
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miketranz
956 posts
msg #117421
- Ignore miketranz |
12/18/2013 9:48:43 PM
I was looking more towards intraday stats,primarily the first half hour of trading.There's no real info out there based on this time frame.You know,the period they tell you in the books to avoid.In my opinion,if you can't make it the first half hour on a day trade,you're definitely not going to make it after that.I would like to know what the percentages are,based on the SPY/DJIA or QQQQ's,of price moving in a certain direction off the open.It could be after a gap up,gap down,if the market is moving up or down the first 15 mins ect.It's one thing to know what the numbers are,it's another thing to guess.The markets a numbers game,not a guessing game.That's why 95% of it's participants lose money on a consistent basis.Thanks for any info,much appreciated,happy holidays.Miketranz.......
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novacane32000
331 posts
msg #117514
- Ignore novacane32000 |
12/25/2013 11:08:08 PM
Check out -- Trade with the Odds by Anthony Trangone. He basically uses excel to track the market intraday under different conditions.
I tried it for several months and actually obtained some decent useable data but it just became to burdensome.
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