miketranz
956 posts
msg #85197
- Ignore miketranz |
12/29/2009 10:15:19 PM
95% of short term traders lose money.When you think about it,those are some heavy odds against you.So the big question is how do you join the 5% club? Who are the small percentage of traders making all the money? Next time you "think" a stock is going up or down,and the more sure you are of it the better the results,go against your belief.You're now trading counter logic.Take the opposite side of the trade.You will not believe the results.It really works.It took me over a decade to figure it out.You know entered the 5% club..........
|
skiiiva
37 posts
msg #85242
- Ignore skiiiva |
12/30/2009 2:00:32 PM
Very interesting Mike, could you give some examples of this?
|
gmg733
788 posts
msg #85260
- Ignore gmg733 |
12/30/2009 4:59:37 PM
I had the same conversation with a friend of mine over a drink. He said every time he bought something, it went down. I told him to do the opposite and he'd do fine. I told him that was his method. I think stock XYZ is going to go up, I told him to short it then and make money.
It is funny how all the stock screens and backtesting that is done, if you would just short your long filter or go long your short filter, that 75% stopped out percentage would be $$$. I was just pondering this the other day. Why don't I find a good candidate to short and go long it. I'd most likely make some good cash that way.
Too funny, but oh so true. We strive for the perfection and the pursuit to make money. Short the stock that is going up. It might just make you money.
|
miketranz
956 posts
msg #85277
- Ignore miketranz |
12/30/2009 11:22:48 PM
A friend of mine has a sayings,"nobody knows what their doing".But then I turned around to him and said,"somebody has to know what their doing".He said "the people with all the money know what their doing".So the bottom line is 95% of short term traders lose money & don't know what their doing.Let me put it this way,almost everything you read on trading,won't make you money.Most of the famous market gurus couldn't trade their way out of a paper bag,but will try to sell you a bag of goods.I've found out through my own experience,that the best trade set ups are what I call "counter logic".I'll give you a perfect example of a set up right on SF that you can make money with.Fade the gap.Now here's a set up that's counter logic.A stock opens higher on good news,buyers jump in,you know what happens next.You get your arms,legs,and head handed to you.The perfect short set up for traders in the know.That's just one example.The main theme behind the 5% club is,to join it,you have to trade against your deepest beliefs in the market.To do the opposite of what you've been doing,to obtain positive results.How about chasing a stock up because you don't want to miss out on the profits.Everyone at some point falls for that one.You know what happens next? The trader in the 5% club is shorting the stock.I've always said the market is a game of opposites,set up to take the money out of your pockets,in a way that will boggle your mind.Don't let it happen to you,join the 5% club..........
|
klynn55
747 posts
msg #85284
- Ignore klynn55 |
12/31/2009 6:51:40 AM
mike: i often thought that using a cheap shareware stock picking software could be a contrarian indicator, i tried it once with football software, would'nt you know it though, it picked winners! there was a football hack, i think mike warren was his name, you could make bank on him , his picks were terrible. People would accost him terribly, i thought he was a valuable asset. there's a big name chat owner, almost every time he gives an alert, you can count on the stock to be at its top!
|
klynn55
747 posts
msg #85285
- Ignore klynn55 |
12/31/2009 6:56:40 AM
all: anyone care to nominate the best/worst stock filter?
|
klynn55
747 posts
msg #85286
- Ignore klynn55 |
12/31/2009 7:31:48 AM
i did a search for best on forums,figuring maybe the best could be the worst, first filter i called up was one of marys: i did a 217 offset , the results were unbelievable, i guess they are that way since the entire market is up but....
stock is optionable
and average volume(30) above 200000
and set{w%m, weekly atr(8)/ weekly ma(8)}
and add column w%m
and w%M above 0.3
and weekly rsi(2) below 20
|
gmg733
788 posts
msg #85356
- Ignore gmg733 |
12/31/2009 5:22:56 PM
I had a great one the other day. I was messing around with filters and took the default parameters of the back testing. While the market was up 4.8% I was down around 274% with my filter. So I messed and jockeyed with it forever and finally got a filter that worked very well for that time period. On recent trends, it simply did not work. So I deleted it. Then in retrospect a few days later, I thought, OH CRAP. What did I just do. In the process of make a 'long' filter, I created a super-charged, modified air intake, fire breathing, NOS boosted 'short' filter. I should have kept that filter.
Think about it. I created a filter, long if you want to call it that, that under performed the SPX by around 280%, meaning bluntly I lost my a$$ if I were long. But if I were short, that could have been a massive gain.
This is quickly becoming my Paradox Trading System. I could even sell this and make millions I get. Results are what matters. Maybe this is the way into the 5% club after all.
Happy New Year to all and best of luck in the new year trading!
|
chetron
2,817 posts
msg #85357
- Ignore chetron
modified |
12/31/2009 5:57:52 PM
SO, DOES THAT MEAN YOU SHOULD TRY TO CREATE A SHORT FILTER AND MAYBE IT WILL BE A FIRE BREATHING LONG FILTER????????
FWIW.....
|
miketranz
956 posts
msg #85362
- Ignore miketranz |
12/31/2009 7:06:38 PM
Happy New Years,all the best.Mike.........
|