StockFetcher Forums · General Discussion · Theoretical underlying philosophy to trading/investing<< 1 2 3 4 >>Post Follow-up
TrendSurfer
109 posts
msg #83071
Ignore TrendSurfer
modified
11/14/2009 4:27:50 PM



crunkle
54 posts
msg #83072
Ignore crunkle
modified
11/14/2009 5:35:27 PM

Cub,

A short rambling from an infrequent poster but long-time (32 years) stock trader (with 8 years experience as a retail stock broker and another two and a half years as a market maker on the CBOE in the early 1980's). In real estate investing, there is a saying that you make your money when you buy and collect it when you sell. I apply this to stock trading by looking for trend changes where I can get in early and ride the escalator up.

In scouting out trend changes, over the years I've found RSI to be the most useful indicator for me, not as short as RSI(2)<2 or as long as RSI(14)>40 but several thresholds and frequencies in between. I feel it's the most immediately sensitive to price changes, sometimes leading other indicators like stochastics, Williams%R and MACD by several days. Otherwise, I'm not much of a technician. I've found that most chart patterns (head and shoulders, cup and handle, double tops/bottoms, etc). will work...until they don't, leaving most chartists looking for PlanB (an old joke in the industry was that a chartist is like a weatherman. They're both 100% accurate...in predicting the past).

I try to keep stock selection as simple as possible. My filters usually don't have more than 4 or 5 lines. I use scans that give me the best ROI and Reward/Risk ratios that I can find. One that I'm using now has a Reward/Risk ratio of 5.30 and an ROI of 245.22 (vs. 33.78 for the SPX 6/30/09-10/30/09). Interestingly, the inverse of these scans do not work well at all in locating good entry points for going short. I'm still experimenting in that area.

Longevity in this business is directly correlated to risk management. In my trading account I'm seldom more than 2/3's invested. Typically any one position is no more than 25% of the account (as of right now, I'm about 40% invested with two long stock positions and one call spread). I'll risk up to 6% so if any one position goes against me it's not going to nick me by more than 1 1/2% overall. My trades usually last 1-5 days although I will day-trade when there's a good opportunity. A typical month will generate 15%-25% trading profits although this can vary between being flat to slightly down (July 09) to up 100%+ (May 09).


Good luck with your trading.




TrendSurfer
109 posts
msg #83076
Ignore TrendSurfer
modified
11/14/2009 7:30:01 PM



TrendSurfer
109 posts
msg #83078
Ignore TrendSurfer
modified
11/14/2009 8:26:13 PM

Just wanted to say thanks to cubtrader for excellent subject matter for a thread.

Also thanks to everyone that responded to me personally. I will be getting back to you over the weekend and we'll pursue things into next week as the group now has my complete focus.

Some that responded, stated they have not signed up with StockFetcher yet, only viewing the forum thus far. Further stating you haven't found a reason yet to sign up. That will change quickly when I share my email workshops. StockFetcher is one of the best values on the web if used correctly and to your benefit. I will be sharing scans and a method that allows you to access immediate results. Proof is in the date offset button allowing to look back and take real time trade setups to test the method, not trying make a scan work/fit in a backtest feature (waste of time). Complete, respectful and open sharing, asking only feedback in return.

I gotta get back to work and focus thus will be pulling links out of my posts tomorrow. I'm easy enough to find for those with an open mind and know how to cut to the chase.

So from Rocky Face Mountain here in NW Georgia I wish to all a busy, fun and productive rest of year. It'll pass before you know it. May profits in your trades be with you all, no matter how you make it happen.

TS

EDIT: Needed to say I found some of you in my junk mail file. If I haven't responded back within a day, please hit me again in case you were misplaced... Thanks



crunkle
54 posts
msg #83081
Ignore crunkle
modified
11/14/2009 8:39:29 PM

Trend,

Wow, someone's got a case of the reda$$. Didn't mean to push your buttons. Just suggesting that charts be treated carefully and that trade management is much more important . For example the chart for STEC was looking pretty good until it gapped down 40% a few days ago. In early January you could make a bullish case for the market (series of higher highs and higher lows) before the bottom fell out. On the other hand, I think charts have more value in trading commodities (and maybe commodity-type stocks) where prices are moved more by built-in supply and demand instead of the latest press release.

However, admitting that I'm not much of a technician doesn't mean that I ignore technicals completely. When I scan for stocks, I like to trade those that look to be bouncing off a support level, not that it seems to make a lot of difference, it's just a personal preference. I trade shorter term because it suits me better. I haven't enjoyed the experience of "buy and hold" very much.

I didn't say chartists ONLY use certain patterns, I just gave those as examples of some of the commonly used ones. Although I have heard of people looking for and trading these patterns even off a 5 or 10 minute chart - hell, sometimes even off a tick chart.

You think differently than me. That's why it's a market. Another joke we used to pass around: EVERYONE KNOWS the CONSENSUS is ALWAYS WRONG.

And, after I've been reading the threads on humor, politics and music, I'd like to suggest you lose the attitude.

Stay profitable!



TrendSurfer
109 posts
msg #83082
Ignore TrendSurfer
modified
11/14/2009 8:58:28 PM



miketranz
715 posts
msg #83087
Ignore miketranz
11/15/2009 12:08:53 AM

Wall Street is a good place to lose money for those who try to predict market direction.95% of short term traders are in the red, in a game that's set up to pick the money out of your pockets.Trade & react in real time,to what's going on right in front of you at that moment,is the only way to trade profitably.Stop guessing & start reacting.Trade only what you know,and if you don't know, find out fast before you're taken out of the game.Find out what works for you in the markets through your own experience.Get an education.It's something you'll never learn from a book.........

BarTune1
403 posts
msg #83088
Ignore BarTune1
modified
11/15/2009 12:22:52 AM

The girls of CNBC link was useful, if nothing else. Hell, Erin and Melissa are the only two reasons I tune in daily.

There should be blog about the most irritating people on CNBC, like:

Najarian
Ratigan
Macke
Santelli
Cramer
and perma bull Kudlow

trendscanner
265 posts
msg #83091
Ignore trendscanner
11/15/2009 9:42:38 AM

Crunkle, your system sounds like it's very effective - averaging 15 to 25% a month is an awesome ROI.

Without asking you to reveal anything that you consider proprietary about your approach, I'm wondering what general price and volume range you look for on your trades - e.g., are you trading large caps, mid caps, etfs? Do you look for volume or average volume above a certain minimum or within a range? Do you use indicators of overall market direction (e.g., RSI(x) swings on SPX, OEX, etc) or other methods to confirm entry/exit points?

thanks for anything else you're willing to share about your trading approach.

Kevin_in_GA
4,537 posts
msg #83092
Ignore Kevin_in_GA
11/15/2009 9:55:44 AM

Crunkle, your system sounds like it's very effective - averaging 15 to 25% a month is an awesome ROI.

Without asking you to reveal anything that you consider proprietary about your approach, I'm wondering what general price and volume range you look for on your trades - e.g., are you trading large caps, mid caps, etfs? Do you look for volume or average volume above a certain minimum or within a range? Do you use indicators of overall market direction (e.g., RSI(x) swings on SPX, OEX, etc) or other methods to confirm entry/exit points?

thanks for anything else you're willing to share about your trading approach.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

I second that request. All philosophy aside, most of us would kill for the type of average monthly return.

If you are willing to discuss your trading style and strategies in more detail, it would be greatly appreciated.

Kevin

StockFetcher Forums · General Discussion · Theoretical underlying philosophy to trading/investing<< 1 2 3 4 >>Post Follow-up

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