StockFetcher Forums · General Discussion · VIX and SPX Charts<< 1 ... 4 5 6 7 8 ... 14 >>Post Follow-up
BarTune1
406 posts
msg #83539
Ignore BarTune1
11/27/2009 12:12:19 PM

Looks like a good move Kevin, I should have exited early on my positions it would appear ..... but i am not very heavily invested at this time ..... looks pretty uncertain whether to take a stab at going long or short now .....

Kevin_in_GA
4,553 posts
msg #83550
Ignore Kevin_in_GA
11/27/2009 6:31:53 PM

The VIX chart is very interesting today - a black candle closing above the Upper BB(10,2). Since the beginning of 2008, every time a black candle has been formed that either closes above the UBB or even pierces it (8 times in total), the next day the ^SPX has been up, often by as much as 5%.



Kevin_in_GA
4,553 posts
msg #83551
Ignore Kevin_in_GA
11/27/2009 6:39:52 PM

^OVX is also interesting - it closed above its UBB(10,2) as well, but with a white candle. May be a short term play in OIL - possibly try UCO for a quick gain?

BarTune1
406 posts
msg #83555
Ignore BarTune1
modified
11/28/2009 9:29:35 AM

Geez Kevin,

I have been so distracted with other matters I did not notice. Really hard to figure this one out - Mondays have been so strong - but I don't think that is going to keep up forever - and normally there is a slight downward bias the first few days of the month - which, would set up a Santa Claus rally if the first part of the month was soft.

Not sure how this Dubai incident is going to turn out - on one hand I can see it being old news shortly - on the other hand it may be a catalyst that turns the market or, at least, levels it off. I wonder what will be the next shoe to drop.

Can't deny the signal on the OVX either - although I have not had stellar luck playing reversion to the mean with the commodities. Connors is right ... they don't revert to the mean near as well as other securties. In fact, they tend to run once they get going. Therefore, I am considering switching to more of a momentum based strategy when playing them - something like the basic system that Trendsurfer advocates.

I am short 3 positions now, but they are small positions. Probably should have bailed on them Friday morning and should just be sitting on the sideline now or, alternatively, picked up a little oil and sso.

TradingMarkets 3 most oversold ETFs in the universe now are IAI, TUR & KCE. Behind them are IWM and XLF. Should maybe have taken a shot at one of those.

Kevin_in_GA
4,553 posts
msg #83560
Ignore Kevin_in_GA
11/28/2009 11:04:38 AM

I have been so distracted with other matters I did not notice. Really hard to figure this one out - Mondays have been so strong - but I don't think that is going to keep up forever - and normally there is a slight downward bias the first few days of the month - which, would set up a Santa Claus rally if the first part of the month was soft.

The ^VIX signal is very clear, if you look at the charts. In fact, almost any black candle on the VIX results in a rise in the ^SPX within a day or two, but when it also closes above the UBB, it is a very strong sign.

Not sure how this Dubai incident is going to turn out - on one hand I can see it being old news shortly - on the other hand it may be a catalyst that turns the market or, at least, levels it off. I wonder what will be the next shoe to drop.

Not sure either, but I saw it as a way to get into commodities on a dip - I am looking at both the VIX and the $USD to make calls. If you look at the $USD chart, it closed below the lower BB on Wednesday, which should have been a signal for its move back up again. I figure that I will hold these for a few days, and if they keep doing well, I'll continue to hold and use a trailing stop.

Can't deny the signal on the OVX either - although I have not had stellar luck playing reversion to the mean with the commodities. Connors is right ... they don't revert to the mean near as well as other securties. In fact, they tend to run once they get going. Therefore, I am considering switching to more of a momentum based strategy when playing them - something like the basic system that Trendsurfer advocates.

I agree - the OVX signals have been hit or miss, so I would avoid playing oil right now (even though I suggested it in my last post). Personally, I had good success using the weekly MACD(2,3,9) on oil, with the $WTIC as the index. However, I like the VIX and USD signals right now, as these two seem to most accurately reflect the market sentiment and direction.

trendscanner
265 posts
msg #83598
Ignore trendscanner
modified
11/29/2009 7:40:34 PM

The market could go either way this next week, up, down, or both. If you look at the Vix vs the SPX on the link below, you can see that the vix didn't go above its UBB (20,2) on Friday. It's closed above its UBB (20,2) and made several other trips above the UBB when the SPX made its last 3 intermediate lows. It looks a lot like the set up in late Sept, when the vix opened above the midline of the BB (20,2) then dropped back the next day before rallying back above the UBB (20,2) a few days later. That time, the SPX made a corresponding 2 day rally before making a 3 to 4 day pullback. Might see something similar this time.

Since I'm holding SPY puts and SDS, I expect the market will rally to teach me a lesson....

Also notice the widening of the range of the Vix over the past few months - higher highs and lower lows. Looks like its own volatility is increasing.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p16667004541&a=184319092&listNum=1


Kevin_in_GA
4,553 posts
msg #83601
Ignore Kevin_in_GA
11/29/2009 10:52:15 PM

I am only confident about the next day after a black candle close like we had on Friday - you're right when you say the next week could go either way.

Right now the Futures are up and the dollar is down, as predicted. Beyond that, I can't say with any statistical conviction.

johnpaulca
11,315 posts
msg #83602
Ignore johnpaulca
11/29/2009 11:01:07 PM

GS has been weakening for the last two weeks, the SPY will follow.

BarTune1
406 posts
msg #83603
Ignore BarTune1
11/29/2009 11:21:51 PM

well, i have eeked out a small profit overall for November .... and although my (short) positions are small - I am expecting a loss tomorrow based on an up market ... should have bought the indexes on the close Friday .... period

Kevin_in_GA
4,553 posts
msg #83604
Ignore Kevin_in_GA
11/30/2009 8:33:41 AM

Bartune:

Market looks to open flat today, so no damage to your short positions likely (at least at the open). Dollar is trading down about a quarter of a percent (at 74.738 right now) - not the big move I was hoping for, and oddly commodities are also down a bit.

My GNW stock took a hit on Friday, but looks like it is slowly crawling back up in PM.

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