Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #83956
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA
modified |
12/7/2009 2:36:17 PM
VIX was making a black candle (a good sign for the market) until just a few minutes ago - now it is a white candle, probably indicating continued choppiness or decline in store for tomorrow.
Dollar is up, then down, then up again. No clear rhythm here today.
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #83968
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
12/7/2009 4:13:29 PM
VIX closes as a black candle. Take note of this - it has been a strong indicator of an UP day for the SPX.
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BarTune1
441 posts
msg #83977
- Ignore BarTune1
modified |
12/7/2009 8:56:49 PM
Hey Kevin,
Pretty hard to play anything here based on my broad market indicators. I have the VIX pretty much sitting on its 10 dma with no divergence. No edge whatsoever. I did short some FSLR at $135.85. Had an order into buy UGL a little lower than its low so it didn't fill.
Going to be travelling the next couple days with limited internet so it is not a bad time for me to back off until something more promising comes along.
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BarTune1
441 posts
msg #84058
- Ignore BarTune1 |
12/8/2009 4:56:42 PM
Kevin, I hoping you didn't get too beat up with your gold plays .... I put in an order the other day but it didn't fill ... probably a good thing.
Anyways, remember to beware of commodities plays ... they tend to run when they move. I think I am going to permanently remove them from candidates for reversion to the mean trades.
I have been looking at some momentum based systems that utilize trailing stops. I'm thinking I should use those systems exclusively on commodity based trades.
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #84415
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
12/14/2009 5:57:32 PM
I have been looking at some momentum based systems that utilize trailing stops. I'm thinking I should use those systems exclusively on commodity based trades.
++++++++++++++++++
Is this something you can share at the moment?
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BarTune1
441 posts
msg #84416
- Ignore BarTune1 |
12/14/2009 6:16:02 PM
hey kev,
i was playing around with some things but dropped it .... picked up around $7K with my reversion to the mean trades last week ... so why screw with a good thing ?
all I know is that I am definately not going to make any straight commodity plays when using reversion to the mean ... too many times I've seen the positions run ...
I fooled around with some plays using stops the two weeks prior trying to catch a move but got stopped out on 3 of four trades at a loss ...
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BarTune1
441 posts
msg #84505
- Ignore BarTune1 |
12/16/2009 12:32:48 PM
Kevin,
We are not too far off on getting a VIX signal.
I also follow the VXX closely and if you notice, the RSI(2) is <1 at .88. I picked up 700 shares today.
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #84507
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
12/16/2009 1:14:50 PM
VXX is currently below the lower BB(10,2), so that's definitely a good signal for a reversion to the mean.
^VIX still needs to go below 20.27 to trigger a signal, or the ^SPX must close above 1117. I'd feel comfortable playing it if either or these happens. I still feel that we are looking at a supported market through the end of the year.
I guess we'll see what happens after the FOMC announcement. Market usually runs up ahead of it, then drops back down for the remainder of the day.
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BarTune1
441 posts
msg #84510
- Ignore BarTune1
modified |
12/16/2009 2:48:49 PM
No doubt there is an upward seasonal bias but my screens have us close to the top of the channel on a short term basis.
I was able to close one reversion trade today, and at a profit - IOC which I had shorted a couple days ago at 70.70 and closed out at 68.75 today.
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #84513
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA
modified |
12/16/2009 2:57:55 PM
I also follow the VXX closely and if you notice, the RSI(2) is <1 at .88. I picked up 700 shares today.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Isn't 700 shares more than one of your standard trading units?
Your VXX play might work out nicely - DJ is now trading negative, as I had suspected it would after the FOMC announcement.
This level of predictability - I should have played it. Buy DXD or BGZ at the 10 AM turn, anticipating the gap to be faded.
Kevin
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