StockFetcher Forums · General Discussion · Volatility Analysis - VIX spikes and SPX follow through 1-3 days later<< 1 ... 4 5 6 7 8 ... 9 >>Post Follow-up
Kevin_in_GA
4,552 posts
msg #82727
Ignore Kevin_in_GA
11/9/2009 9:57:00 PM

I think you are smarter than me ... or at least you have more patience ...
+++++++++++++++++++++++++

Doubt it on both counts.

Make no mistake ... I am studying your trading style, like a young jedi learns from his master.



tmanbone
124 posts
msg #82733
Ignore tmanbone
modified
11/9/2009 10:59:59 PM

when you can snatch the pebble from the masters hand grasshoppa

BarTune1
404 posts
msg #82737
Ignore BarTune1
11/9/2009 11:22:06 PM

Kevin,

I cant take too much credit for my strategy .... but I will tell you this .... the best couple books I ever read on trading were Short Term Trading Stategies That Work and High Probability ETF Trading both by Larry Connors ... about $40 each ...

I dont know if you can locate copies but I highly recommend them .... I would have saved myself lots and lots of cash over the last 10-15 years if they had been available long ago ....

I'd be tempted to loan you my books if you wanted but the friggin postage to and from the US here is around $20 each way ....

Kevin_in_GA
4,552 posts
msg #82746
Ignore Kevin_in_GA
11/10/2009 6:59:29 AM

when you can snatch the pebble from the masters hand grasshoppa
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

I was going to use the "Kung Fu" analogy, but since BarTune is Canadian I thought he might not have seen that show (now 35 years ago). I still use the pebble analogy with some of the younger scientists I work with, but increasingly they just look at me with a blank stare when I say it.

BarTune: I have already asked for both books as a Christmas gift. May just pick up one in advance and swap out for a book on options.

As it stands this morning, futures are down slightly, and the $USD looks fairly strong. Might jump into some trades this morning if the market turns south.

Kevin_in_GA
4,552 posts
msg #82753
Ignore Kevin_in_GA
modified
11/10/2009 11:35:47 AM

VIX is slightly positive at 23.45 (up +1.3%). Major markets are trading down slightly (-0.2% to -0.4%).

Not a strong signal, but all reversals start as small changes. Tempted to jump in now, but will wait until later because of work schedule.

EDIT: Put in some limit orders for TYP, TZA, BGZ and SPXU at their lows so far today (just in case the market oscillates). If I buy at those prices I'll be happy. If they move up a bit on me, that's OK as well. Looking at the VIX, it is forming a doji at the moment. (1:51 PM, no limit orders triggered, moved them up to their open prices).

Kevin_in_GA
4,552 posts
msg #82781
Ignore Kevin_in_GA
11/10/2009 4:35:30 PM

SPX forms a doji (hollow red candle), and the VIX is down as well. Uncommon for both to be down - will look at the statistics of when that happened and what the next few days might look like.

Well, I am in on TYP, TZA, BGZ and SPXU. Not at the lows for the day, but very near their closing prices. In on 1 of 5 possible "trading units" reserved for each stock - this will let me buy more if it goes down and average in over a few days to a better price point if needed (thanks BarTune1 for the insight on how to play this). If it goes up, I'll stand pat with what I bought today.

BarTune1
404 posts
msg #82784
Ignore BarTune1
11/10/2009 4:46:00 PM

Good luck Kevin. I am currently long SDS, short LMT yesterday near its high, AMZN, VRTX today ....

Kevin_in_GA
4,552 posts
msg #82785
Ignore Kevin_in_GA
11/10/2009 4:46:53 PM

TIMES WHEN BOTH THE ^SPX AND THE ^VIX ARE DOWN:

273 TIMES SINCE 1/1/1999
AVERAGE FOR NEXT DAY ON SPX = 0.06%

25 TIMES SINCE 1/1/2009
AVERAGE FOR NEXT DAY ON SPX = 0.36%

TIMES WHEN BOTH THE ^SPX AND THE ^VIX ARE UP:

243 TIMES SINCE 1/1/1999
AVERAGE FOR NEXT DAY ON SPX = -0.28%

17 TIMES SINCE 1/1/2009
AVERAGE FOR NEXT DAY ON SPX = -0.43%

BarTune1
404 posts
msg #82799
Ignore BarTune1
11/10/2009 8:42:56 PM

Well Kevin, I'm not impressed how everything seems to be trading up in the afterhours ....

Kevin_in_GA
4,552 posts
msg #82801
Ignore Kevin_in_GA
11/10/2009 9:05:27 PM

I'd rather see it up in AH than in pre-market. Let's wait until tomorrow and see.

Besides, it is approaching the psychological resistance level of 1100 - with no economic data released until Wednesday, I would guess that unless there are key earnings results that ignite the market, it will drift a bit tomorrow ahead of the unemployment data.

AMAT is reporting tomorrow, but not until after the close.

StockFetcher Forums · General Discussion · Volatility Analysis - VIX spikes and SPX follow through 1-3 days later<< 1 ... 4 5 6 7 8 ... 9 >>Post Follow-up

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