StockFetcher Forums · General Discussion · WAIT FOR GREEN<< 1 2 3 >>Post Follow-up
corsino
259 posts
msg #36708
Ignore corsino
7/4/2005 1:44:48 PM

I'm interested in reading other people's opinions/experiences with the "wait for green" before buying downtrodden stocks.
Although much has been written about it, my opinion is that it's a great over-simplification. Surely, I wouldn't "back up the truck " nor "load the boat" just on it. Not just on the fact that the stock price is in the green after half hour or so of trading. I think equally important is what the general market is doing. If the market is dropping at the time, there is a very good chance that the green on the stock will soon turn to red. A swing trader needs all the edges possible. There is a time to trade and a time to wait.


da-net
55 posts
msg #36710
Ignore da-net
7/4/2005 2:21:50 PM

In agreement completely.


TheRumpledOne
6,358 posts
msg #36711
Ignore TheRumpledOne
7/4/2005 2:45:02 PM

Wait for Green...

After SF updates the database at night, this filter will show stocks that had rsi(1) below 1 at the open and how they did today.

CLICK ON THE MAGNIFYING GLASS ICON:

Fetcher[
/* your filter code goes below this line */

rsi(2) 1 day ago below 1
volume above 1000000

sort column 3 ascending

/* STOCK DASHBOARD DISPLAY for newbies and old pros */

set{E36b,days(ema(3) is above ema(6),100)}
set{E36a,days(ema(3) is below ema(6),100)}
set{E3xE6, E36a - E36b}

set{E50200b,days(ma(50) is above ma(200),100)}
set{E50200a,days(ma(50) is below ma(200),100)}
set{M50xM200, E50200a - E50200b}

set{E1326b,days(ema(13) is above ema(26),100)}
set{E1326a,days(ema(13) is below ema(26),100)}
set{E13xE26, E1326a - E1326b}

set{CCb,days(close is above close 1 day ago,100)}
set{CCa,days(close is below close 1 day ago,100)}
set{CxC, CCa - CCb}

set{E5b,days(close is above ema(5),100)}
set{E5a,days(close is below ema(5),100)}
set{CxE5, E5a - E5b}


set{E50b,days(close is above ma(50),100)}
set{E50a,days(close is below ma(50),100)}
set{CxM50, E50a - E50b}

set{E200b,days(close is above ma(200),100)}
set{E200a,days(close is below ma(200),100)}
set{CxM200, E200a - E200b}


set{T10, count(10 day slope of the close above 0,1)}
set{T60, count(60 day slope of the close above 0,1)}
set{T200, count(200 day slope of the close above 0,1)}

Set{a1, T200 * 1}
Set{a2, T60 * 10}
Set{a3, T10 * 100}

Set{aa, a1 + a2}
Set{TREND, aa + a3}

set{v, volume 1 day ago}
set{volinc, volume - v}
set{volpc, volinc / v}
set{volpct, volpc * 100}

set{VolZ, days(volume < 1,100)}
set{VolUp, days(volume is below volume 1 day ago,100)}
set{VolDn, days(volume is above volume 1 day ago,100)}
set{VolCnt, VolUp - VolDn}

set{vck1, volume 1 day ago }
set{vck, volume / vck1 }
set{vdbl, days(vck < 2, 100)}


set{PARBuy, count(close crossed above Parabolic SAR, 5) }
set{DMIBuy, count( di(14) Difference crossed above 0 , 5) }
set{DMIBuyX, count( di(14) Difference above 0 , 1) }

set{PARSell, count(close crossed below Parabolic SAR, 5) }
set{DMISell, count( di(14) Difference crossed below 0, 5) }
set{DMISellX, count( di(14) Difference below 0, 1) }

set{PARSBuy1, PARBuy * DMIBuy}
set{PARSBuy, PARSBuy1 * DMIBuyX}

set{PARSSell1, PARSell * DMISell}
set{PARSSell, PARSSell1 * DMISellX}

set{PARSTrade, PARSBuy + PARSSell}

set{HiOp, high - open}

and add column VolCnt
and add column Vdbl
and add column volpct

and add column HiOp
and add column Trend

and add column CxC {CxC_}
and add column CxE5 {CxE5}

and add column E3xE6 {E3xE6}
and add column E13xE26 {E13xE26}


and add column CxM50
and add column CxM200
and add column M50xM200

add column rsi(2)
add column weekly rsi(2)

add column PARSBuy
add column PARSSell


and draw Parabolic SAR
and draw +di(14)
and draw -di(14)
and draw adx(14)
and draw di(14) difference

]



The results should show the reader the benifit in waiting for green. Column CxC shows that the stocks that didn't go up had been going down for days... that's why you wait for green.

Change the 1 day ago line to 2 days ago and that should prove it beyond a shadow of a doubt.

MAY ALL YOUR FILLS BE COMPLETE.



corsino
259 posts
msg #36714
Ignore corsino
7/4/2005 3:17:47 PM

Well, it's a given that most stocks with an RSI <1 have been going down, and waiting for green is advisable.But neither one of the two criteria is foolproof. Filters tell you what happened in the past, but no filter will tell you what will happen tomorrow. Rsi <1 and "waiting for green" are tools, like a hammer to a carpenter. But while you can use a hammer to nail a board, you can also painfully hit your thumb with it.


TheRumpledOne
6,358 posts
msg #36716
Ignore TheRumpledOne
7/4/2005 10:03:18 PM

corsino:

Trading is more "art" than "science".

You have to realize that sometimes you win, sometimes you lose.

But if you have good money management skills, you can make money trading:

http://www.optionetics.com/articles/article_full.asp?idNo=8558

MARKET INSIGHT: Money Management


By Jody Osborne, Optionetics.com
6/19/2003 7:30 AM EST


We can find a lot of information about trading in books and on the Web, but most of it details how to pick stocks and what strategies that are available using options. However, one very important aspect of trading is often overlooked and this is money management. I often get the question, “Why did such and such stock move against us when everything was pointing at a good trade?” Trading is not an exact science; if it were, there would not be a market because everyone would know how to win. In sports, a team can often play a great game and still lose. The same thing can occur in trading. We can have all the odds in our favor, yet the stock will move against us.

Despite the fact that many trades will lose money, if we manage our trades appropriately, we can still make nice profits. In fact, we can make money trading even if our winning percentage is below 50 percent. In just a moment, I am going to discuss how this is possible. However, before we go into some money management techniques, we need to realize that we are going to have losing trades. Even the best baseball team doesn’t win every game. In fact, a 60 percent winning percentage is considered great in the sport. This is similar to the options game, where a person who wins 60 percent of their trades should come out well ahead of the game.

Too many traders enter a trade without any idea of when they will get out. Not only should we have a profit exit set, but we should also have a loss target set. With some strategies, we might be willing to risk the entire capital used, while others we might have a mental stop loss in place. Regardless of where your targets reside, it is important to have them ahead of entering the trade. This is because emotion will dominate our trading decisions if we don’t have an idea of what to do ahead of time.

Now, just to show that we don’t have to be right every trade, let’s take a look at a table showing the profits made using various winning percentages. There is an old saying that states “Let your profits run and cut your losses short.” It is this basis that gives us the following table.

Winning %
Ave Win
Tot Win
Ave Loss
Tot Loss
# of Trades
Profit

40%
$500
$4,000
$250
$3,000
20
$1,000

50%
$500
$5,000
$250
$2,500
20
$2,500

60%
$500
$6,000
$250
$2,000
20
$4,000


Table 1: Profits Using Various Winning Percentages

Notice that by having a 2-to-1 win to loss ratio, we would have profits even if we only win 40 percent of the time. It is also important that we allocate an equal amount of capital to each trade. Many traders will put large amounts of money into trades they think are the best. However, if this trade doesn’t pan out, it can erase the gains made from other trades.

There are various strategies to manage your trading account, but the key is to have a plan. The idea is to “plan your trade and trade your plan.” This means knowing ahead of time where our exits lay and keeping a good record of the trades we have made in the past. Though we can’t win every time, we can learn to manage our money better so that the losses aren’t a problem for the long-term performance of our trading account.


Jody Osborne
Senior Writer & Options Strategist
Optionetics.com ~ Your Options Education Site
Visit Jody's Forum









roca1018
37 posts
msg #36858
Ignore roca1018
7/12/2005 6:44:42 AM

Corsino, da_net,

I am also in agreement as waiting for green is often more of a gamble than
looking for reversals after further downside. Of particular interest to me is the 4ema crossing above the 10ema on a 5 minute chart. Unfortunately, my work schedule
does not permit me to monitor regularly. In addition, I am not aware of any free
live charting sites. I use the chart tools on Ameritrade but the screen is small
(bigcharts) and there isn't any option to enlarge it.

Rich


corsino
259 posts
msg #36881
Ignore corsino
7/12/2005 7:47:52 PM

I'm not saying that "waiting for green" is all bad , but neither is it all good. A lot depends on what type of trading you do. For instance, a day trader, even when the market is going down, can watch a stock carefully and the instant it goes green buy it with the expectation that momentum will push it up a few more pennies where he can sell it at a profit the instant it shows signs of stalling or reversing again.
A swing trader has an entirely different situation and goal. If he buys at exactly the same time as the day trader, and the market as a whole keeps going down (Greenspan is talking ),there's a very good chance that by the end of the day the stock ( which at some point was a penny or two in the green) will be in the red.
The point is that if you think a particular stock has possibilities,it may be better to wait until the next day , when the market may be in a better mood, to buy it.




TheRumpledOne
6,358 posts
msg #36921
Ignore TheRumpledOne
7/14/2005 8:59:46 AM

When you find a system that allows you to buy a stock, walk away, come back days later and sell for profit everytime, there will be no stock market.




corsino
259 posts
msg #36925
Ignore corsino
7/14/2005 10:55:58 AM

Rumpledone
All I'm saying is that it doesn't hurt to use a little good judgement once in a while, instead of trading, trading, trading, just for the sake of trading.You are fond of saying that you have to trade to make money, but you also can easily lose money.


joseph
15 posts
msg #37065
Ignore joseph
7/25/2005 8:04:10 PM

Listen folks, if a trade is going your way average up one-half of the initial position ex; bought 1,000 shares ,first pull back you buy half 500 shares, next pullback you buy 250 shares it is done in 3 stages using trendlines. Let your profits run, very simple and use trailing stops along the way. Something Ozzie Osborns cousin Jody never talked about from optionetics


StockFetcher Forums · General Discussion · WAIT FOR GREEN<< 1 2 3 >>Post Follow-up

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