StockFetcher Forums · General Discussion · Watchlist<< 1 ... 4 5 6 7 8 >>Post Follow-up
nikoschopen
2,824 posts
msg #63003
Ignore nikoschopen
5/23/2008 3:11:07 PM

I'm prolly making a big mistake but I couldn't resist any longer. Short USO @ 106.89.

I think the crude will fall back down to $100 once it realizes that the global economy is being trashed for good.

johnpaulca
10,082 posts
msg #63004
Ignore johnpaulca
modified
5/23/2008 3:32:06 PM

Niko...didn't we go through this with GLD or MON , I can't remember....shorting strength is just plain crazy, too much speculation money in here, its definitely not in the financial....good luck and have a great long weekend.

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rtucker
318 posts
msg #63008
Ignore rtucker
5/23/2008 4:40:20 PM

Ive never seen DUG behave as it has the past few days with oil up two of the three days. Gotta be a hedge for the huge speculative money on the long side and speculation of its own. Anyway, nice that its going up regardless of what oil does. For now......

nikoschopen
2,824 posts
msg #63009
Ignore nikoschopen
5/23/2008 4:51:35 PM

Luckily, I only shorted 1000 shares. But, if I remember correctly, ya can't trade with scared money! lol

Cheers!

johnpaulca
10,082 posts
msg #63010
Ignore johnpaulca
5/23/2008 4:59:10 PM

Niko... I was looking on the VIX a minute ago and saw an inverted head and shoulders setup with the right shoulder not completed, I believe this thing will tank soon, but then again, we have been saying this for awhile. LOL

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petrolpeter
439 posts
msg #63020
Ignore petrolpeter
5/24/2008 2:29:34 AM

DUG is no hedge.This week the shorts attacked the oil dinosaur trying to bring him down and DUG is one of the spears they are using.They may not succeed until oil goes higher,beats me.When they decide to dump oil,DUG should print a mega green bar.

SFMc01
272 posts
msg #63027
Ignore SFMc01
5/24/2008 10:09:11 PM

johnpaulca .... I'm a struggeling trader and every day I find that I know a lot less than I thought I did.. It feels like the more I study, the more I find that I have to learn from the experienced pros in this business ... like you.

I am trying to understand the chart you posted in this post 5/20/2008 1:04:58 PM and am having some difficulty. Respectfully, would you please identify the trendlines by color that you are using on this daily chart? Also, would you please share what you believe they are communicating. Thank you for your patience and generosity. If you prefer you may communicate directly to me at SFMc01@aol.com

Again Thanks ... Steve Mc


johnpaulca
10,082 posts
msg #63037
Ignore johnpaulca
5/25/2008 4:39:26 PM

Steve: the charting you're referring to is DGX and the pattern is a cup and handle. The Cup with Handle is a bullish continuation pattern that marks a consolidation period followed by a breakout.

As its name implies, there are two parts to the pattern: the cup and the handle.
Cup Depth: The low of the cup retraced 42% of the previous advancThe cup forms after an advance and looks like a bowl or rounding bottom. As the cup is completed, a trading range develops on the right hand side and the handle is formed. A subsequent breakout from the handle's trading range signals a continuation of the prior advance.

Trend: To qualify as a continuation pattern, a prior trend should exist. Ideally, the trend should be a few months old and not too mature. The more mature the trend, the less chance that the pattern marks a continuation or the less upside potential.
Cup: The cup should be "U" shaped and resemble a bowl or rounding bottom. A "V" shaped bottom would be considered too sharp of a reversal to qualify. The softer "U" shape ensures that the cup is a consolidation pattern with valid support at the bottom of the "U". The perfect pattern would have equal highs on both sides of the cup, but this is not always the case.
Cup Depth: Ideally, the depth of the cup should retrace 1/3 or less of the previous advance. However, with volatile markets and over-reactions, the retracement could range from 1/3 to 1/2. In extreme situations, the maximum retracement could be 2/3, which is conforms with Dow Theory.
Handle: After the high forms on the right side of the cup, there is a pullback that forms the handle. Sometimes this handle resembles a flag or pennant that slopes downward, other times just a short pullback. The handle represents the final consolidation/pullback before the big breakout and can retrace up to 1/3 of the cup's advance, but usually not more. The smaller the retracement is, the more bullish the formation and significant the breakout. Sometimes it is prudent to wait for a break above the resistance line established by the highs of the cup.
Duration: The cup can extend from 1 to 6 months, sometimes longer on weekly charts. The handle can be from 1 week to many weeks and ideally completes within 1-4 weeks.
Volume: There should be a substantial increase in volume on the breakout above the handle's resistance.
Target: The projected advance after breakout can be estimated by measuring the distance from the right peak of the cup to the bottom of the cup.
As with most chart patterns, it is more important to capture the essence of the pattern than the particulars. The cup is a bowl-shaped consolidation and the handle is a short pullback followed by a breakout with expanding volume. A cup retracement of 62% may not fit the pattern requirements, but a particular stock's pattern may still capture the essence of the Cup with Handle.





johnpaulca
10,082 posts
msg #63039
Ignore johnpaulca
modified
5/25/2008 5:12:05 PM

NEU...CRDN...update...getting ready to move...I will load up on NEU





-SF 2.0 not working.

johnpaulca
10,082 posts
msg #63045
Ignore johnpaulca
modified
5/26/2008 1:12:48 AM

Added to watchlist:

VMW($64.96)
BTM($35.93)
CRZO($67.70)


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