StockFetcher Forums · General Discussion · What I have been trying...Explanation...Pointers?<< >>Post Follow-up
ProZachJ
8 posts
msg #61010
Ignore ProZachJ
4/2/2008 7:37:48 PM

I have been using some of TRO's stat. scans and some of the Muddy scans along with volume spikes to pick 3-5 candidates per day that I feel have a good probability of making a significant move. I have about 10 filters that I then use (Along with Fetcher's standard bearish bullish screen) to get some statistical info about what a stock has done in the past (i.e. what has a given stock done when its average day range(10) has been above 8%...or any other of my filters) I then try to use all those probabilities weighted by the strength of the average move the stock has made to get an idea of weather or not I am looking for a long or short position in each stock. If the overall market is moving down that day I focus on the shorts...up the longs. I am then using slow stochastics to time the entry and exits...(i.e. buy oversold sell overbought) get out of a position that is both moving against me and the stochastic is against me (oversold when i am loosing in a short and visa versa). Anyway I have been doing this for several days now will some sucess...anyone have any pointers or refinements? Anyone doing something similar?

EWZuber
1,373 posts
msg #61034
Ignore EWZuber
4/3/2008 10:53:43 AM

I would suggest adding support & resistance. That is critical for timing.

ProZachJ
8 posts
msg #61065
Ignore ProZachJ
4/3/2008 10:41:55 PM

I have been trying to trade the breakouts...isn't that using support and resistance in a way?

Thanky for the reply :-)

EWZuber
1,373 posts
msg #61071
Ignore EWZuber
4/4/2008 3:43:05 AM

Yes, but there's a lot more to support and resistance than that.

ProZachJ
8 posts
msg #61109
Ignore ProZachJ
4/4/2008 7:29:04 PM

Looks like I'll be doing some research...I am obviously having more problem (I am not loosing money but I am not making any either) with trading the stocks I pick each day than picking them...all 5 stocks on my watchlist today popped at least 5%...one of them went out to 15% and came back to 5% talk about an opportunity to cash in...but I made like 1/2% total today...kinda made me sick seeing all that potential profit just bumbled away...

TheRumpledOne
6,358 posts
msg #61110
Ignore TheRumpledOne
4/4/2008 8:13:52 PM

ProZachJ:

When I learned to juggle, I started with one ball. When I was able to consistanly toss the ball the same height in the same place, I graduated to two balls. When I was able to consistanly toss the balls the same height in the same place, I graduated to three balls. When I was able to consistanly toss the balls the same height in the same place, I was juggling!

May I suggest you learn to juggle stocks.

TRADE ONE STOCK OVER AND OVER AND OVER AGAIN BEFORE YOU TRY TO TRADE MORE THAN ONE STOCK.

Funny thing is, and you can ask Chip, after you are successful at trading one stock, you may not want to trade any more stocks.



chip
67 posts
msg #61120
Ignore chip
4/5/2008 8:53:10 AM

ProZachJ,

I too am fantastic at picking stocks. I'm a software developer and love writing the SF filters and picking stocks. I'm actually working on y.a.c.f. (yet another cool filter) right now.

Easiest money I ever lost.

TRO & I made acquaintances on 12/20/07 and he gave me the same advice he just gave you. Last month I had made about 10% on my money trading one stock, then TRO kinda 'gave me permission' to try a few other stocks. I was getting frustrated with not being able to see what he was telling me. So I did trade some RIMM and I made a little more, but I couldn't really 'see' it there (with RIMM) either. So I went back to the same ol' stock. Now after weeks of focusing on this one stock, I sorta know how it moves at various times of the day. And more importantly, to me, I'm getting a better at realizing when I was wrong (though TRO will tell you there is no right/wrong -- only profitable/unprofitable).

I made 15% just this past week and now have no interest, at all, in trading something else. Now that I've made enough that I could actually trade 2 stocks, I'm just going to trade more of the same stock.

I'm not interested in proving I can write great code, or pick great stocks, I'm interested in making money. And for me, the best thing I've found is to trade just one stock.

EWZuber
1,373 posts
msg #61127
Ignore EWZuber
modified
4/5/2008 5:27:50 PM

There's no doubt about it that by trading one stock you can improve your returns.
However, the same trading discipline can be applied to any stock.
Its all about timing. Here is one system of discipline that can be used to identify a good entry to minimize downside risk and three different strategies to identify a good exit to prevent erosion of unrealized profits.
For a daytrade to the long side:
-The Daily Chart will need to be in an Accumulation Phase.
-Hourly Chart will need to be in or just beginning a new accumulation Phase.

Here is a Daily Chart for SPIR.
Image and video hosting by TinyPic
Here are Hourly Charts depicting three different exit strategies. Two are optimized for different market conditions, Consolidating and Trending.
Image and video hosting by TinyPic
Image and video hosting by TinyPic
Image and video hosting by TinyPic





TheRumpledOne
6,358 posts
msg #61129
Ignore TheRumpledOne
modified
4/5/2008 5:35:30 PM

Fetcher[
/* Open to High Stat Filter for Past 100 Trading Days */

set{xPP, high - open}

set{B00A, count(xPP below 0.00, 100)}
set{B01A, count(xPP between 0.00 and 0.11,100)}
set{B02A, count(xPP between 0.10 and 0.21,100)}
set{B03A, count(xPP between 0.20 and 0.31,100)}
set{B04A, count(xPP between 0.30 and 0.41,100)}
set{B05A, count(xPP between 0.40 and 0.51,100)}
set{B06A, count(xPP between 0.50 and 0.61,100)}
set{B07A, count(xPP between 0.60 and 0.71,100)}
set{B08A, count(xPP between 0.70 and 0.81,100)}
set{B09A, count(xPP between 0.80 and 0.91,100)}
set{B10A, count(xPP between 0.90 and 1.01,100)}
set{B11A, count(xPP above 1.00,100)}

add column B00A {x<0}
add column B01A {x>0}
add column B02A {x>.10}
add column B03A {x>.20}
add column B04A {x>.30}
add column B05A {x>.40}
add column B06A {x>.50}
add column B07A {x>.60}
add column B08A {x>.70}
add column B09A {x>.80}
add column B10A {x>.90}
add column B11A {x>1.00}
add column separator

symlist(SPIR)
]



Fetcher[
/* TRO STAT SCAN - POPS PER WEEK */

/* Long Profit Percent Statistics Display */

set{xRange, high - low}
set{AvgRng, cma(xRange,5) }
set{HiOp, high - open}
set{Long_Profit, HiOp/open }

set{B10A, count(Long_Profit > .10 , 100)}

set{A10A, count(Long_Profit > .10 , 1)}
set{chg, sum( A10A - A10A 1 day ago ,5)}

and add column B10A {GT10%}
and add column AvgRng

add column chg{(wk)}
add column chg 1 week ago{(-1wk)}
add column chg 2 weeks ago{(-2wk)}
add column chg 3 weeks ago{(-3wk)}
add column chg 4 weeks ago{(-4wk)}
add column chg 5 weeks ago{(-5wk)}
add column chg 6 weeks ago{(-6wk)}
add column chg 7 weeks ago{(-7wk)}
add column chg 8 weeks ago{(-8wk)}
and add column separator
add column industry
add column sector
and add column separator

/* SELECTION CRITERIA */

SYMLIST(SPIR)

sort column 5 descending
]



Looks like trading 1,000 shares of SPIR could print $100 bills from Open to High.



ProZachJ
8 posts
msg #61133
Ignore ProZachJ
4/5/2008 7:16:11 PM

Thank you all so much for the help. I am taking all of your comments and doing my best to turn them into knowledge that I can use. I wonder if anyone has any ideas about another strategy that I have been thinking of (only conceptually).

What if you picked a stock with a high average day range % and then traded using a 60 period price channel (donchian channel is the same thing it looks to me) as entry on a chart using 1 min candles. (i.e. long the first time the price touches the top of the channel) Then use 60 period volatility stops as the exits...also would have to go short if the price touches the bottom of the channel. The logic was that if a stock is making large intraday moves it would have to be pushing either the top of the bottom of the channel whilst making its new highs or lows during the move. It seems to me the danger of this strategy would be getting into a stock that ranging (is consolidating the same thing?) and getting wipsawed for a bunch of small losses. Thats why I was thinking high average day range % could help the effectiveness. Also if I based the position size on the width of the stop i could keep wipsaw losses down to a small percent of my total equity....anyway just brainstorming this idea and looking it over on some intraday charts and it seems that it might be pretty profitable..?

StockFetcher Forums · General Discussion · What I have been trying...Explanation...Pointers?<< >>Post Follow-up

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