StockFetcher Forums · General Discussion · Where is Mr. Luck?<< 1 2 >>Post Follow-up
stefonk
33 posts
msg #97905
Ignore stefonk
modified
12/9/2010 3:07:59 PM

I have never had a wining trade. Is luck not on my side? Anytime I ran my filters and my technicals show a very good sign of an uptrend, as soon as I take position on the stock, the price goes down. What is going on? Is it because my filters are not good. Please can anybody give me a win win filter, so that at least I can regain some of my money from commisions and other losses. thank you so much and maybe I will enjoy this christmas with my family. I need a very good filter please?

campbellb75
101 posts
msg #97906
Ignore campbellb75
12/9/2010 3:32:30 PM

If you're as bad as you claim to be, short every stock that you plan to go long with. You'll have 100% winners.

stefonk
33 posts
msg #97907
Ignore stefonk
12/9/2010 4:02:43 PM

Thats no helpful. For example take symbol ALTID, close yesterdaywas a complete bullish engulfing which covered more than the previous 2 days. Thats all indication that buyers have taken over but then today what happened, the price kept going down. My position is whenever bullish engulfing occurs, then its good to go long not short. So how do you short if techs indicates to go long.

johnpaulca
11,297 posts
msg #97909
Ignore johnpaulca
modified
12/9/2010 4:23:08 PM

This filter looks for beaten up stocks. Select the stocks with a good base like DF and THOR then wait for volume to increase and an open+close above wma(13)....hth.
Fetcher[

volume > 500000
close > 1
draw RSI(33) line at 52
draw RSI(33) line at 46
draw RSI(33) line at 32
RSI(33) crossed above 31 within the last 20 days
add column sector
add column rsi(33)
Draw wma(13)
]



Kevin_in_GA
4,548 posts
msg #97910
Ignore Kevin_in_GA
12/9/2010 7:32:59 PM

Of course - there are dozens of winning filters peppered throughout the forums.

Here's one of mine:

Fetcher[

market is s&p 500
close above 1
average volume(20) above 200000
MA(10) below MA(45)
rmi(8,14) crossed below 65
]



exit conditions are either ma(10) above MA(45) or rmi(8,14) crossed above 45

Results over the last 4 months:

Approach Name: RMI(8,14) cross below 65
Test started on 08/09/2010 ended on 12/09/2010, covering 86 days
Filter used:

market is s&p 500
close above 1
average volume(20) above 200000
MA(10) below MA(45)
rmi(8,14) crossed below 65

Trade Statistics
There were 78 total stocks entered. Of those, 68 or 87.18% were complete and 10 or 12.82% were open.
Of the 68 completed trades, 64 trades or 94.12% resulted in a net gain.
Your average net change for completed trades was: 4.80%.
The average draw down of your approach was: -4.21%.
The average max profit of your approach was: 6.22%
The Reward/Risk ratio for this approach is: 45.07
Annualized Return on Investment (ROI): 87.10%, the ROI of ^SPX was: 28.19%.


Max number of trades was 25, no stops used.

Equity gain starting with $100,000 on 8/3 until 12/3 was $15,197.00.

This filter has not returned any trades so far in December - while it is uncannily accurate, it does not trade all that often.

duke56468
683 posts
msg #97913
Ignore duke56468
12/9/2010 10:10:34 PM

Here is what I have been using lately, only buy if goes below pp next day, stop below candle. You still have to use your own judgement. Not sure who created this basic part, I think it was four, but if not I apologize. I thank all those that are so willing to share their filters.

Fetcher[
/* Buy below hi , stop below low yesterday*/
close above 1
average volume(30) above 300000
market not OTC BB
market is not ETF

MACD Histogram(10,30,10) crossed above 0
volume 300% above average volume(90)
CMF(21) more than 5% above CMF(21) 2 days ago

and add column separator
and add column pp
and add column separator
and add column s1
and add column s2
and add column r1
and add column r2
and add column HIGH
and add column LOW
and add column average volume(30)
]




mikes2010
16 posts
msg #97918
Ignore mikes2010
12/10/2010 12:35:12 AM

Kevin,

Can you please put a link to some of the winning filters, I have been searching but have not been able to find.

Thanks

Walid
130 posts
msg #97921
Ignore Walid
12/10/2010 12:52:09 AM

I am sorry to hear about your recent trading experience. I see some of our friends here have already offered you what looks like a robust and reliable filters. However, I am concerned more with your strategy and tactics. From what you said, it looks like you are using the Japanese Candlestick patterns as trading triggers. If you have read Steve Nison work on the subject – he is the highest authority on Candlesticks and the one you should be learning from – you would know that Candlesticks are best combined with western traditional technical analysis to define a complete trading strategy. In fact, the pullback you mentioned with ALTID is very common with Engulfing pattern as well as the Hammer. Here is a quote from page 44
“A prime use of the engulfing pattern is utilizing them as support and resistance”
Another quote from the same page
“… by the time a bullish engulfing pattern is completed ….. the market may be well ff its lows. As such, I would feel that it has gotten away from an attractive buying area”
From these quotes you can conclude that the pattern itself is by no means a trigger and whatever your entry point would be, you have to be very comfortable with the risk associated with it. For instance, some traders enter long once the market is trading above the close of the engulfing candle. At this scenario, your stop is below the low of the same candle; remember, the low of the candle is a support. The low of the engulfing candle in ALTID example was 1.72 and the close was 2.24. This is a (0.52 * lot size) to risk. Are you ok with that? Some less aggressive traders put the stock on watch list and wait for a pullback near 50% of the engulfing candle before they enter so they can be a little closer to the logical stop. The pullback may never come but nonetheless, this is the trading plan they are comfortable with.
The most important point I want to make and the mistake we all keep doing until we learn the hard way is, patterns and filters help us compile a list of potential trade candidates, timing the trade for low risk entry is a whole different story. You can have a winning trade that goes sore because you entered prematurely and no longer can stand the heat. Once you get out, the market – of course – go into your planed direction but without you.
Spend some time studying and never trade a strategy without back testing it. After that, try paper trading the strategy for a while before you risk you hard earned money on live trades. Finally, even though John and Kevin are advanced traders and I am sure they will not post a filter they don’t trust their own money with; trading these filters – or any filter for that matter - blindly can still lead to the same results you are suffering from right now. Spend some time developing a trading plan for these filters. Your stop must be the first and most important decision you make before you enter. Make sure you are absolutely ok – both financially and emotionally - in case this stop gets triggered. If not, reduce your lot or pass. Now, what is your entry trigger and on what time frame (for example 5, 15, 60 minutes chart). What if the stock gaps up? Are you going to wait for a pullback? Chase? Or pass? Answer all of these questions before you entered a trade, I think this will increase your odds of winning.
Best of luck to you and sorry if my reply is too long.


mystiq
650 posts
msg #97923
Ignore mystiq
modified
12/10/2010 2:04:34 AM

stefonk
msg #97907
- Ignore stefonk 12/9/2010 4:02:43 PM

Thats no helpful. For example take symbol ALTID, close yesterdaywas a complete bullish engulfing which covered more than the previous 2 days. Thats all indication that buyers have taken over but then today what happened, the price kept going down. My position is whenever bullish engulfing occurs, then its good to go long not short. So how do you short if techs indicates to go long.

----just be patient...wait for confirmation ..that is an outside day followed by an inside day on ALTID. watch for an early breakout whether to the long or short side. *the bullish engulfing only tells part of the story*




BULLISH ENGULFING Recognition: The body of the second day completely engulfs the body of the first day. Shadows are not a consideration.

Pattern Psychology: This pattern suggests the Bulls are stepping in with force, suggesting prices will move up.

Related Articles: How to Trade the Bullish Engulfing Signal

http://candlestickforum.com/PPF/Parameters/16_441_/candlestick.asp




mahkoh
891 posts
msg #97925
Ignore mahkoh
modified
12/10/2010 4:31:21 AM

ALTID is a penny stock with an average volume of about 100000. You don't have to be that big a fund to create a bullish pattern and lure retail investors in if you want to.

Fetcher[
date offset = 0

pattern is bullish engulfing

and Average Volume(30) is above 300000
and close is above 3

set {newhigh, count( high reached new 3 week high , 1)}
set {buzz , volume / volume 1 day ago}
set {5dbuzz , volume/average volume(5)}

and add column buzz
and add column 5dbuzz
and add column newhigh
and add column industry

sort column buzz descending
sort column 5 descending
]



Offsetting the date will let you look back on how often this pattern has had bullish implications. It does help if there are other
indicators in play (fibonacci or pivot support, double bottom) If you find more then one candidate you can play them all and spread your risk.

If your account will let you, take the other side as well.
Fetcher[
date offset = 0

pattern is bearish engulfing

and Average Volume(30) is above 300000
and close is above 3

set {newlow, count( low reached new 3 week low , 1)}
set {buzz , volume / volume 1 day ago}
set {5dbuzz , volume/average volume(5)}

and add column buzz
and add column 5dbuzz
and add column newlow
and add column industry


sort column buzz descending
sort column 5 descending
]





StockFetcher Forums · General Discussion · Where is Mr. Luck?<< 1 2 >>Post Follow-up

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