StockFetcher Forums · General Discussion · Yet another reason why stop losses are a fools game!<< 1 2 >>Post Follow-up
as214
184 posts
msg #50076
Ignore as214
2/16/2007 8:54:57 PM

12/5/2006 1:54:21 PM

Just bought 300K worth of ZEUS today at 24.65-24.70! Look at the one year chart and look at what DMA 28,-14 was doing..SLOPING UPWARDS with plenty of seperation between equity price and DMA. RSI2 was close to bottomed.. And most important VALUE VALUE VALUE, with ZEUS being part of Metals Distributors industry (LOW combination PE and PS multiples as a collective whole)..






Here is my real time post of ZEUS purchase as a beaten down value oriented contrarian selection. After I bought it ZEUS went down over 10 percent on me but because the risk /reward ratio was favorable I held it . Now just a little over two months later ZEUS is up over 20 percent from my origional buy point.


lockwhiz
206 posts
msg #50077
Ignore lockwhiz
2/16/2007 9:12:00 PM

.... you put 300K into ZEUS ..??!!??!!

60K profit ... I'd say "you da man !"


wantonellis
102 posts
msg #50092
Ignore wantonellis
modified
2/17/2007 12:29:38 PM



as214
184 posts
msg #50095
Ignore as214
2/17/2007 1:54:33 PM

That's why I'm not a trader, I'm an investor.


as214
184 posts
msg #50096
Ignore as214
2/17/2007 1:59:43 PM

10/25/2006 11:40:28 PM

Hi Avery,


CAT, TEX, AET, VLO, GS, and TM. Normally I only hold five at one rime, if I sell one I replace it with another, or add to my core positions when an opportunity presents itself. The reason I have six is because CAT provided me with a wonderful opportunity right after earnings. There was extreme panic selling ..typical post earnings overreaction, the same happened when I bought AET in 32's at the end of July. Its now back up to above 39 now. I bought CAT on margin, something that Id vowed I never would do. I never really believed much in technical analyisis until I met you and have helped me save thousands by pinpointing entries. I thank you for that.. Hopefully I can return the favor to you by showing you that stocks not only have technical areas of support and resistance, but financial regions of support and resistance as well..and that these regions often act in conjunction with technical data to provide consistent, steady increases in equity prices over the course of a given period.

One of your many disciples,

As214






Here is my portfolio from 10-25 when RTO asked me what was in it. Backtest these holdings!


TheRumpledOne
6,358 posts
msg #50097
Ignore TheRumpledOne
2/17/2007 2:16:57 PM

"Here is my real time post of ZEUS purchase as a beaten down value oriented contrarian selection. After I bought it ZEUS went down over 10 percent on me but because the risk /reward ratio was favorable I held it . Now just a little over two months later ZEUS is up over 20 percent from my origional buy point. "

Nice trading!

I think the questions people want answered are:

"HOW MUCH OF A DRAW DOWN WERE YOU WILLING TO WITHSTAND?"

"HOW LONG BEFORE YOU BAILED"?

"WHAT WAS YOUR EXACT TRADING PLAN FOR THIS TRADE?"

...

ZEUS 12/5/06 OPEN $25.52 CLOSE $24.77 RSI(2) SHOWING 2 DAY POSITIVE DIVERGENCE

ZEUS 12/7/06 HIGH $26.25 CLOSE $26.11 Peaking at EMA(13), EMA(26) AND CLOSING BELOW MA(50) You could have taken profit off the table in 2 days.

One alternative would have been to sell 1/2 your position and lock in some profit and put a stop at breakeven for the remaining position. If you get stopped out you can always reenter the trade when approritate. This is NOT a criticism of your trade!





binhp
69 posts
msg #50123
Ignore binhp
2/19/2007 7:06:15 PM

I have been back testing with no stop loss only with stocks that have been deeply discounted ( ie tanked) and so far their ROIs have been spectacular.
One should be very happy to see a superstar with great value on sale. A great company will not go backrupt easily, and if it has great value, another company will jump in and buys it right away.






limestar
79 posts
msg #50127
Ignore limestar
2/20/2007 1:47:58 AM

Tom Strazzini on Fast Money as said repeatedly he doesn't use stops. Not saying he is the be all end all, but for those that don't typically use stops (like me), Tom is someone "joe bag of doughnuts" trader can identify as a credible trader who doesn't use stops. Just throwing it out there.


traderblues
195 posts
msg #50137
Ignore traderblues
2/20/2007 12:00:23 PM

"I read a post on this website where a trader has a trading system with no stop loss component and feels comfortable with that by keeping the position sizes very small for each trade. The system will wait for losers to turn into winners. My contention is mathematical certainty guarantees this persons trading system will eventually have to be holding all losing positions."

That's me. I still don't use stops with that system, and it is still working. Your explanation that I hold all losing positions until they become winners is not entirely true. Even stocks in a downtrend have up days. When you get stopped out, you are often getting out at a short-term bottom. My system gets out at a short-term peak. Many times they are still losers, but more often than not, I get out at a better price than if I would have been stopped out.



as214
184 posts
msg #50139
Ignore as214
2/20/2007 12:19:59 PM

TheRumpledOne
- Ignore TheRumpledOne 2/17/2007 2:16:57 PM

"Here is my real time post of ZEUS purchase as a beaten down value oriented contrarian selection. After I bought it ZEUS went down over 10 percent on me but because the risk /reward ratio was favorable I held it . Now just a little over two months later ZEUS is up over 20 percent from my origional buy point. "

Nice trading!

I think the questions people want answered are:

"HOW MUCH OF A DRAW DOWN WERE YOU WILLING TO WITHSTAND?"

"HOW LONG BEFORE YOU BAILED"?

"WHAT WAS YOUR EXACT TRADING PLAN FOR THIS TRADE?"

...

ZEUS 12/5/06 OPEN $25.52 CLOSE $24.77 RSI(2) SHOWING 2 DAY POSITIVE DIVERGENCE

ZEUS 12/7/06 HIGH $26.25 CLOSE $26.11 Peaking at EMA(13), EMA(26) AND CLOSING BELOW MA(50) You could have taken profit off the table in 2 days.

One alternative would have been to sell 1/2 your position and lock in some profit and put a stop at breakeven for the remaining position. If you get stopped out you can always reenter the trade when approritate. This is NOT a criticism of your trade!



StockFetcher Forums · General Discussion · Yet another reason why stop losses are a fools game!<< 1 2 >>Post Follow-up

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