StockFetcher Forums · General Discussion · chart peoples !<< 1 2 >>Post Follow-up
cdrudek
14 posts
msg #37022
Ignore cdrudek
7/22/2005 9:32:21 PM

what do you think of goog and the chart... check out a 6 month chart and the negative divergence in the macd ? i dont own it but i am waiting for it to implode .... do you think this assesment bears any merit ?


hrosas
21 posts
msg #37037
Ignore hrosas
7/24/2005 3:10:00 AM

cdrudek:
You brought a good subject: Google. You will be right, one of these days it will "implode", whatever it means. But not too soon.
This is my subjective point of view and very bias on the long side. I own 100 shares and very seldom I hold stocks. On 30 years of trading most of my winnings came from the short side. With Google I started PUT CREDIT SPREADS every month since the middle of January when it was about 175. Puts spreads way out of the money generally give about $200 to $300 credit, ten of those is about two to three thousand dollars every month.
Here are some of the reasons, cdrudek:
-Google will not follow any study, be MACD, Bollinger, etc. the other way around: the studies will follow Google and one way to make money will be buying or selling when the stock hits those boundaries. I day trade another 100 shares on Google on the 5 minutes charts using CCI(14) only from the long side: buying when the CCI(14) go from -100 to above -100. Exit a) reversal to below -100 b) reversal to below 0 c) or reversal from over +100 to below +100 whichever happens first. Usually 2 to 4 trades per day. I get tired easily.
Why so stubornly bullish on Googgle:
-Bullish weekly charts, just keep going up
-the believe that the two genius founders will not split shares (they are trying to immitate Buffets's Berkshire) we may see $ 4000 and above share prices in our lifetime.
-now funded rumors that Google will be include on the S&P 500 and it could happen any time, that day and afterwards Google will leap.
-Experts are saying that Google will dominate the whole internet like Microsoft cornered the PC market. Growth earnings, higher stock prices.

P.S. I touched on the Credit Spreads not for arrogance but to give back something to all these members that keep posting wonderful filters, and to all those that hold a job for a living and are unable to sit at the computer during market hours and to those that daytrade like me but are getting tired of looking at the screen for so many hours. Put credit Spreads on stocks with solid up momentum bring steady flow of income. specially with Google where options premiums are very high. This is a position that you take once a month and watch once a day after market closes.
I use Trade Station that charges $2 per spread. So far all expired worthless and saved the closing commission.
My apologies for exceeding the time on this forum.
HR


cdrudek
14 posts
msg #37044
Ignore cdrudek
7/24/2005 2:05:24 PM

hrosas ~ very interesting ... so let me see if i understand what you are saying ~ basically that google traded on pure emotion right now and not any any chart technicals ? if that is what you are saying i can see that point being google is a very highly regarded and sought after security. Although you are trading it using the daily CCI (14) ?


cdrudek
14 posts
msg #37045
Ignore cdrudek
7/24/2005 2:06:16 PM

basically it is this line that sparks my interest : "Google will not follow any study,"


hrosas
21 posts
msg #37051
Ignore hrosas
7/24/2005 11:35:56 PM

cdrudek:
When I refer to studies I mean DAILY time frame. I get buy and sell signals very often but the stock keeps moving up. I built a library of 72 filters that I copied and adapted from fellow members and Google is laughing at most of them. I gave up and became very bias toward the up side. It is paying off very well. But like you said Google will implode and at that time will take some losses. In my case it will be double hit: I keep overnight 100 shares since the middle 170's. I keep 10 vertical credit put spreads (way out of the money)So on any severe drop it will take away a good chunk of realized and paper profits.
Additionally, I trade every day couple of times another 100 shares from the long side only, using the CCI(14). Flat overnigh on this 100. On the 100 long shares the brokerage house uses the FIFO rule (First In - First Out) so my cost is the next to the las buy.
Every body has divided opinions on any stock since for every buyer has to be a seller, but personally I will not be a seller or short on Google. Besides the funded rumor that Google will be included on the S&P has to be viewed as a powerful incentive on the long side. These to boy geniuses founders are hiring the most brilliant minds on earth. They are going places. I missed Dell, Starbucks, Microsoft, Ebay... etc. I will hold on to this one. I know I'm doing the wrong thing rationalizing in order to hold long positions. That's why I'm still trading instead of visiting the beaches of the world.
Again my apologies for taking so much time from this forum.
So long...cdruker


Noahedwinbeach2
135 posts
msg #37052
Ignore Noahedwinbeach2
7/25/2005 1:59:36 AM

my opinion to you is follow the parabolic SAR. That is what I am using right now with success. I am in CKCM right now and made good money so far in the last month. The parabolic SAR will tell you when it is time to sell GOOG. When the parabolic SAR crosses over to the top and the DMI + goes below the DMI- around the same time then you know its time. You may also want to use the parabolic SAR on the 1 week charts too and not just the daily.


joseph
15 posts
msg #37060
Ignore joseph
7/25/2005 3:44:01 PM

I am a trader, and do not program like the RumpelOne, anyway do not short Goog anytime soon. Accumulation,Distribution line does show negative divergence,but support can be found about 270, for testing and at that point it will be make or break time, if Goog does not rally back it is over and the next support level is the round number 200. The daily charts say one thing ,but weekly data says to be patient for the day of Goog's demise is not that far away. What your seeing on the daily chart is stage1, stage2 is testing of support,stage3 would be testing of previous high and neither event has taken place, its the sitting which is hard,be patient Good Luck


maxreturn
745 posts
msg #37078
Ignore maxreturn
7/26/2005 6:08:18 PM

Hrosas, I am intrigued by your strategy of selling put spreads. Would you mind sharing a little more detail? Specifically I'm wondering: 1) How far out of the money do you go? 2) How far out in time do you go? 3) When do you take a position (timing signal, test of support...etc). Thanks in advance.


maxreturn
745 posts
msg #37079
Ignore maxreturn
7/26/2005 6:15:48 PM

Hrosas, sorry...forgot one more thing. How far apart are the strikes? Best regards


hrosas
21 posts
msg #37083
Ignore hrosas
7/26/2005 7:48:59 PM

maxreturn:
More than glad. Easy to do, hard to explain. I will take some time tonight PST (California time). HR


StockFetcher Forums · General Discussion · chart peoples !<< 1 2 >>Post Follow-up

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