StockFetcher Forums · General Discussion · determing which stocks are going to make big moves after earnings<< >>Post Follow-up
MARY4MONEY
806 posts
msg #82433
Ignore MARY4MONEY
modified
11/4/2009 4:07:35 PM

this is half the problem solved because you can make alot of money on even overpriced options before earnings-but ther number one thing is if the stock is going to move big time--the only correlation i have found is seeing what the volume is the last 1-3 trading seesions right before the earnings announcement-- you want to see what the trading volume is about 20 minutes before the last session before earnings- you want to check this volume versus the 5day and 30 day moving average of the volume- if you look at the biggest movers the last several weeks--you will see this volume is 150-600% abover these average especially above the previous session volume too--lets look at a few--stec for today--yesterday before th close--Date Open High Low Close Volume Adj Close*
3-Nov-09 21.74 23.41 21.26 23.15 ---11,838,200 23.15
2-Nov-09 21.65 22.31 21.13 21.56 ---2,830,700 21.56
30-Oct-09 22.35 22.40 21.00 21.32 ---2,767,400 21.32
29-Oct-09 21.04 22.50 21.03 22.45 ---3,274,400 22.45
you can see the volume was >3x -the price closed at 23.15- so you played the 17.5 puts and the 29 calls---which would of cost you 0.80-- the 17.50 puts are now 3.30--same thing on amzn----22-Oct-09 93.66 94.10 91.70 93.45 ---------------------16,518,500 93.45
21-Oct-09 95.27 96.63 92.91 93.42 ---7,761,200 93.42
20-Oct-09 95.91 96.10 94.27 94.98 ---7,777,600 94.98
19-Oct-09 95.35 96.28 94.25 94.68 ---6,017,400 94.68
16-Oct-09 95.30 96.12 93.61 95.32 ---7,038,400 95.32
15-Oct-09 95.13 97.06 95.08 96.01 ---6,242,100 96.01
14-Oct-09 96.22 97.82 96.02 97.46 ---5,556,800 97.46
as you can see the volume right before earnings was about 2.4x-- amzn closed at 93$- your strangle play would of been the 120 call and 70 put for a cost of 0.37---the 120 call at its highest price was 9$------same thing on apol--------------------------------27-Oct-09 73.18 74.37 72.16 72.97 ----7,495,500 72.97
26-Oct-09 73.76 75.10 72.83 73.20 ----1,867,000 73.20
23-Oct-09 73.97 75.31 73.84 74.03 ---1,377,700 74.03
22-Oct-09 73.93 76.28 71.93 74.81 ----3,586,700 74.81
21-Oct-09 75.01 76.69 74.99 75.39 ---1,895,600 75.39
20-Oct-09 74.64 75.60 72.50 75.52 ---1,938,300 75.52
the volume was about 3.4x on apol-- it closed near 73$--- so your plAY WAS THE 85 CALL AND THE 60 PUTS--FOR A TOtAL OF about 0.75- the 60 puts are now 4.10$---these moves seem to be proportional to the degree the volume is higher --sgy was at about 1.7 x before last night close---it closed at 17.40---but you would of lost 35% of your money if you had down a straddle or strangle--we need these stocks to move >18% to really have a chance to make any money on a strangle- so the 2nd part of the equation is trying to figure out which direction the stock will go after earnings--with tradetrek it was alot easier to due--but they dont have tradetrek anymore--so im working on other things--

abelincoln
126 posts
msg #88648
Ignore abelincoln
modified
2/24/2010 12:11:05 PM

...

karennma
6,832 posts
msg #88660
Ignore karennma
2/24/2010 1:53:21 PM

"so the 2nd part of the equation is trying to figure out which direction the stock will go after earnings"
================================================================================

Nobody can GUESS that correctly, which is Y I don't trade earnings.
Whether a stock will go up or down after an EC is RANDOM and unpredictable. A company can "beat the street", yet the stock price can still go down if they've lowered guidance for next quarter ....

Had I known STEC's earnings call was yesterday, I certainly would NOT have been in the stock.

stratiG
147 posts
msg #88662
Ignore stratiG
2/24/2010 3:30:48 PM

nice to see you back M4M

karennma
6,832 posts
msg #88664
Ignore karennma
modified
2/24/2010 3:53:16 PM

Please note DATE OF ORIGINAL POST:

MARY4MONEY
- MARY4MONEY
modified 11/4/2009 4:07:35 PM

abelincoln
- abelincoln
modified 2/24/2010 12:11:05 PM

a24ali
- a24ali 2/23/2010 8:14:06 PM
I am in at 12.3 from end of last year.. but good think i sold 14 call today and bought 13 puts.

so who is mary4money optionplayer333 /2/21/2010
optionplayer333
- optionplayer333 2/2/2010 4:49:16 PM
There seems to be a lot of posts by this person. Im new on here.

Ahem!!
HE NEVER LEFT.
But I guess if YOU don't know his aliases, you'd never know that.
BTW, M4M ... you don't have to keep "disguising" yourself.
WE KNOW WHO YOU ARE.
(at least most of us do!)

mystiq
650 posts
msg #88701
Ignore mystiq
2/25/2010 2:22:51 AM


MARY4MONEY
- Ignore MARY4MONEY
modified 11/4/2009 4:07:35 PM

this is half the problem solved because you can make alot of money on even overpriced options before earnings-but ther number one thing is if the stock is going to move big time--the only correlation i have found is seeing what the volume is the last 1-3 trading seesions right before the earnings announcement-- you want to see what the trading volume is about 20 minutes before the last session before earnings- you want to check this volume versus the 5day and 30 day moving average of the volume- if you look at the biggest movers the last several weeks--you will see this volume is 150-600% abover these average especially above the previous session volume too--lets look at a few--stec for today--yesterday before th close--Date Open High Low Close Volume Adj Close*
3-Nov-09 21.74 23.41 21.26 23.15 ---11,838,200 23.15
2-Nov-09 21.65 22.31 21.13 21.56 ---2,830,700 21.56
30-Oct-09 22.35 22.40 21.00 21.32 ---2,767,400 21.32
29-Oct-09 21.04 22.50 21.03 22.45 ---3,274,400 22.45
you can see the volume was >3x -the price closed at 23.15- so you played the 17.5 puts and the 29 calls---which would of cost you 0.80-- the 17.50 puts are now 3.30--same thing on amzn----22-Oct-09 93.66 94.10 91.70 93.45 ---------------------16,518,500 93.45
21-Oct-09 95.27 96.63 92.91 93.42 ---7,761,200 93.42
20-Oct-09 95.91 96.10 94.27 94.98 ---7,777,600 94.98
19-Oct-09 95.35 96.28 94.25 94.68 ---6,017,400 94.68
16-Oct-09 95.30 96.12 93.61 95.32 ---7,038,400 95.32
15-Oct-09 95.13 97.06 95.08 96.01 ---6,242,100 96.01
14-Oct-09 96.22 97.82 96.02 97.46 ---5,556,800 97.46
as you can see the volume right before earnings was about 2.4x-- amzn closed at 93$- your strangle play would of been the 120 call and 70 put for a cost of 0.37---the 120 call at its highest price was 9$------same thing on apol--------------------------------27-Oct-09 73.18 74.37 72.16 72.97 ----7,495,500 72.97
26-Oct-09 73.76 75.10 72.83 73.20 ----1,867,000 73.20
23-Oct-09 73.97 75.31 73.84 74.03 ---1,377,700 74.03
22-Oct-09 73.93 76.28 71.93 74.81 ----3,586,700 74.81
21-Oct-09 75.01 76.69 74.99 75.39 ---1,895,600 75.39
20-Oct-09 74.64 75.60 72.50 75.52 ---1,938,300 75.52
the volume was about 3.4x on apol-- it closed near 73$--- so your plAY WAS THE 85 CALL AND THE 60 PUTS--FOR A TOtAL OF about 0.75- the 60 puts are now 4.10$---these moves seem to be proportional to the degree the volume is higher --sgy was at about 1.7 x before last night close---it closed at 17.40---but you would of lost 35% of your money if you had down a straddle or strangle--we need these stocks to move >18% to really have a chance to make any money on a strangle- so the 2nd part of the equation is trying to figure out which direction the stock will go after earnings--with tradetrek it was alot easier to due--but they dont have tradetrek anymore--so im


*MARY4MONEY : your vocabulary/english skills improved vastly ! (-.-) * nice observations

mystiq
650 posts
msg #88765
Ignore mystiq
2/26/2010 7:20:53 AM

?M4M?so the 2nd part of the equation is trying to figure out which direction the stock will go after earnings--with tradetrek it was alot easier to due--but they dont have tradetrek anymore--so im working on other things--*

:::so im working on other things::: >>did other things work out? (-.-)

StockFetcher Forums · General Discussion · determing which stocks are going to make big moves after earnings<< >>Post Follow-up

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