StockFetcher Forums · General Discussion · okay guys i figured a way to win for sure on earnings plays<< 1 2 >>Post Follow-up
MARY4MONEY
806 posts
msg #81782
Ignore MARY4MONEY
10/26/2009 6:19:36 PM

what you do is play an out of the money strangle--here is how you know its going to be a good move so you can make some serious money-- on the 1-2 trrading periods before the earnings annoucement- you want to do the following--1. have the trading volume>1.5x 2. have the option trading be more than 2x- which it was on amzn and bidu- i bought 8 million$ worth of the 330-390 puts last friday also- but if you were going to play a single strangle-- on bidu you buy the 350 put and 510 call last friday for a total 4.30$-- on amzn you wanted to buy either the 110c and 70 p or the 120 c and 60p(this would of cost you <0.40- and you could of sold it today for 8.80$)-

Kevin_in_GA
4,553 posts
msg #81783
Ignore Kevin_in_GA
modified
10/26/2009 6:38:45 PM

The Nov $510 call is about to take a beating based on the AH stock move for BIDU (down 13%). Better hope that the 350 put moves like a rocket to cover your loss on the call.

BIDU is down 52 dollars to $378 in AH trading.

I blew it today - my strategy was to sell the call BEFORE earnings, and I would have made my target 20% today (I bought the Nov 500 call at 3.90 on Friday, and it went past 4.70 before closing today at 4.20), but I got greedy and figured I'd hold it until the earnings news came out.

Bad call.

karennma
6,831 posts
msg #81803
Ignore karennma
modified
10/26/2009 10:37:20 PM

Man!
I WISH AAPL would drop $50 so I could make money on the AAPL puts I'm still holding.
I did an AAPL strangle (bought calls AND puts) last week and didn't make crap.

Kevin, don't feel bad about your BIDU calls. In fact, the beauty of options is, you've LIMITED your risk up front.
I hope you didn't buy 10+ contracts.
If you only bought one ... just to "get your feet wet", you're in good shape.
I mean really!
WHO the H*LL would EVER expect a $50 drop!!!????
On Friday, when I checked the open interest, there were a lot more calls than puts.

:>)


karennma
6,831 posts
msg #81806
Ignore karennma
10/26/2009 10:48:44 PM

BIDU
Open interest calls Nov 360's to 550's = 20,327
Open interest puts Nov 330's to 460's = 13,873

karennma
6,831 posts
msg #81808
Ignore karennma
10/26/2009 11:04:54 PM

Last week, I DID pose the question as to whether BIDU could DROP.
See my last 2 posts.

Here


karennma
6,831 posts
msg #81812
Ignore karennma
10/26/2009 11:37:28 PM

From Trading Signals ...

"Baidu on Monday forecast revenue in the fourth quarter to range between $174 million and $180 million, below the average analyst estimate of $204.7 million, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.Revenue in the three months ended September 30 totaled $187.3 million, a tad below the average analyst estimate of $189 million but higher than the 135.4 million a year-earlier.Third-quarter net income rose to $72.2 million, or $2.07 a share, from $51.2 million, or $1.47 a share, in the same period last year."

MARY4MONEY
806 posts
msg #81820
Ignore MARY4MONEY
modified
10/27/2009 8:17:50 AM

kevin i will lose most of my money on the calls- but i on the puts-- bidu is at 360 now- so that will make my 360 puts that i paid2 .00 for worth near 25$ now- so its looking like the puts will gain me 800-900%- so i will end up with say 700% or 50-60 million dollars for the puts and my toal cost is about 15.8 million- you just have to make sure the stock will make a nice move either way- say at least 12-25%-here is what i paid for them-- 330-0.50 340 0.80 350-1.20 360-2.00 370-2.80 380 4.30 390-6.22

karennma
6,831 posts
msg #81827
Ignore karennma
10/27/2009 10:09:54 AM

MARY4MONEY
- MARY4MONEY
10/27/2009 8:17:50 AM

- you just have to make sure the stock will make a nice move either way- say at least 12-25%-

======================================================================================

How would we know that AHEAD of time?
I think you'd have to restrict your bets to the "four horsemen" ...
AAPL, BIDU, RIMM, AMZN
What other stocks have made a $20+ move after earnings?


MARY4MONEY
806 posts
msg #81830
Ignore MARY4MONEY
10/27/2009 10:17:35 AM

while bidu at <357 i got 2200 contracts of the 400-460 calls

karennma
6,831 posts
msg #81838
Ignore karennma
10/27/2009 11:56:22 AM

M4M:
I looked at those when BIDU dropped.
That's a good play.


StockFetcher Forums · General Discussion · okay guys i figured a way to win for sure on earnings plays<< 1 2 >>Post Follow-up

*** Disclaimer *** StockFetcher.com does not endorse or suggest any of the securities which are returned in any of the searches or filters. They are provided purely for informational and research purposes. StockFetcher.com does not recommend particular securities. StockFetcher.com, Vestyl Software, L.L.C. and involved content providers shall not be liable for any errors or delays in the content, or for any actions taken based on the content.


Copyright 2016 - Vestyl Software L.L.C.Terms of Service | License | Questions or comments? Contact Us
EOD Data sources: DDFPlus & CSI Data Quotes delayed during active market hours. Delay times are at least 15 mins for NASDAQ, 20 mins for NYSE and Amex. Delayed intraday data provided by DDFPlus