StockFetcher Forums · General Discussion · psychological problems after loose<< 1 2 3 4 >>Post Follow-up
shelupinin
120 posts
msg #36637
Ignore shelupinin
7/2/2005 1:01:49 PM

to corsino:
Why you think that it's bad idea to trust to ROI results? Are they uncorrect? The only way which they seems not correct for me is that they does'nt count comissions cost...


corsino
259 posts
msg #36639
Ignore corsino
7/2/2005 2:01:38 PM

Shelupinin
ROI results are probably mathematically correct within the formula used to compute them, which may or may not be realistic. However, I find it a little strange that in backtesting filters that others post and supposedly make money using, practically all backtest with very low ROIs and in fact usually with negative ROIs.



leaddog
38 posts
msg #36645
Ignore leaddog
7/2/2005 3:07:42 PM

corsino

I do use it with real money. That is why that streak a couple of weeks ago made me think. However it was just part of the system, you dont win them all. I believe your edge prevails over time not everytime.


corsino
259 posts
msg #36652
Ignore corsino
7/2/2005 4:48:12 PM

Leaddog
Well,I'm glad you are having success with it. TX Trapper has the Bottomlinestocks site where daily and weelkly (swing) picks can be posted, so I'll probably post some of your filter picks just to try it out. I use it as a means to paper trade some filters since there's no real money involved.


TheRumpledOne
6,358 posts
msg #36658
Ignore TheRumpledOne
7/2/2005 7:20:48 PM

==========================
FEAR as of August 27, 2003
==========================


I have been telling you guys to FORGET EVERYTHING YOU KNOW.

Today, I realized I left out the most important part....

FORGET EVERYTHING YOU DO NOT KNOW!

What you don't know is what is going to happen next...
ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN!

When you let what you don't know influence your buying/selling,
this causes you to hesitate. FEAR takes over!

FEAR is what is keeping you from SELLING when you need to sell and
BUYING when you need to buy...

Fear has been defined as False Expectations Appearing Real.

Have you ever said:

"Everytime I sell it goes up"

"Everytime I buy it goes down"

"I am always on the wrong side of the trade"

I know I have.

It took me almost a year to find out why the above statements
appeared to be true. One friend said to "find the pattern".

I looked and looked. It wasn't until I was taught the value of
LINEAR REGRESSION by another friend that I found the answer.

One judgement error usually produces another...

1) Enter stock at "wrong time" too close to upper Bollinger band
and/or Upper Lin Reg...

2) Fail to place stop loss immediately after entry.

So, first a judgement error (rule breaking) and a trading
execution error (another rule break)

And the stock goes down just like the chart says it will.

This reinforces what you think you know (everytime I buy....)

You refuse to sell the stock because EVERY TIME I SELL IT GOES
UP. FEAR has you by the you know what!!

So you wait... and it continues to go down.... days go by.

FINALLY YOU CAN'T TAKE IT ANYMORE SO YOU SELL.

3) Fail to do what the chart tells you to do.

Of course the stock goes up because... EVERYTIME I SELL IT GOES UP.

Wrong, the stock went up because it was probably near the lower
Bollinger band and/or lower Lin Reg and you should have been
buying!

YOU HAVE TO TRUST YOUR TRADING TOOLS AND TACTICS

Here they are again:

=====================================================================

from THE TRADING ZONE, Mark Douglas

page 121

1) Anything can happen

2) You don't need to know what is going to happen next in order to
make money.

3) There is a random distribution between the wins and losses for
any
given set of variables that define an edge.

4) An edge is nothing more than an indication of a higher
probability
of one thing happining over another.

5) Every moment in the market is unique.

page 185

I AM A CONSISTENT WINNER BECAUSE:

1) I objectively indentify my edges.

2) I predefine the risk of every trade.

3) I completely accept the risk or I am willing to let go of the
trade.

4) I act on my edges without reservation or hesitation.

5) I pay myself as the market makes money available to me.

6) I continually monitor my susceptibility for making errors.

7) I understand the absolute necessity of these principles of
consistent success and, therefore, I never violate them.


=====================================================================

FOLLOW THESE STOCK TIPS FOR SUCCESSFUL DAYTRADING

BUY LOW SELL HIGH

TAKING SMALL PROFITS = HUGE GAINS

USE STOP LOSSES (7-10%)

BE AWARE THAT MARKETS ARE MOVED BY GREED & FEAR

ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN DUE DILIGENCE

USE THE STOCK PICKS AS A WATCH LIST DON'T JUST BUY BLINDLY

DON'T FALL IN LOVE WITH YOUR STOCKS (have "short affairs" with
them)



=====================================================================

Trading Rules

=====================================================================


1. Plan your trades. Trade your plan

2. Keep records of your trading results.

3. Keep a positive attitude, no matter how much you lose.

4. Don't take the market home.

5. Successful traders buy into bad news and sell into good news.

6. Successful traders are not afraid to buy high and sell low.

7. Successful traders have a well-scheduled planned time for
studying the markets.

8. Successful traders isolate themselves from the opinions of
others.

9. Continually strive for patience, perseverance, determination,
and rational action.

10. Limit your losses - use stops ! ( mental imo )

11. Never Cancel a stop loss order after you have placed it!

12. Place the stop at the time you make your trade.

13. Never get into the market because you are anxious because of
waiting.

14. Avoid getting in or out of the market too often.

15. Losses make the trader studious - not profits. Take advantage
of every loss to improve your knowledge of market action.

16. The most difficult task in speculation is not prediction but
self - control. Successful trading is difficult and frustrating.
You are the most important element in the equation for success.

17. Always discipline yourself by following a pre - determined set
of rules.

18. Remember that a bear market will give back in one month what a
bull market has taken a three months to build.

19. Don't ever allow a big winning trade to turn into a loser.
Stop yourself out if the market moves against you 20% from your peak
profit point.

20. You must have a program, you must know your program, and you
must follow your program.

21. Expect and accept losses gracefully. Those who brood over
losses always miss the next opportunity, which more than likely will be
profitable.

22. Split your profits right down the middle and never risk more
then 50% of them again in the market.

23. The key to successful trading is knowing yourself and your
stress point.

24. The difference between winners and losers isn't so much native
ability as it is discipline excercised in avoiding mistakes.

25. In trading as in fencing there are the quick and the dead.

26. Speech may be silver but silence is golden. Traders with the
golden touch do not talk about their success.

27. Dream big dreams and think tall. Very few people set goals too
high. A man becomes what he thinks about all day long.

28. Accept failure as a step towards victory.

29. Have you taken a loss? Forget it quickly. Have you taken a
profit? Forget it even quicker! Don't let ego and greed inhibit
clear thinking and hard work.

30. One cannot do anything about yesterday. When one door closes,
another door opens. The greater opportunity always lies through
the open door.

31. The deepest secret for the trader is to subordinate his will
to the will of the market. The market is truth as it reflects all
forces that bear upon it. As long as he recognizes this he is safe. When
he ignores this, he is lost and doomed.

32. It's much easier to put on a trade than to take it off.

33. If a market doesn't do what you think it should do, get out.

34. Beware of large positions that can control your emotions.
Don't be overly aggressive with the market. Treat it gently by allowing
your equity to grow steadily rather than in bursts.

35. Never add to a losing position.

36. Beware of trying to pick tops or bottoms.

37. You must believe in yourself and your judgment if you expect
to make a living at this game.

38. In a narrow market there is no sense in trying to anticipate
what the next big movement is going to be - up or down.

39. A loss never bothers me after i take it. I forget it
overnight. But being wrong and not taking the loss - that is what does the
damage to the pocket book and to the soul.

40. Never volunteer advice and never brag of winnings.

41. Of all speculative blunders, there are few greater than
selling what shows a profit and keeping what shows a loss.

42. Standing aside is a position.

43. It is better to be more interested in the market's reaction to
new information that in the piece of news itself.

44. If you don't know who you are , the markets are an expensive
place to find out.

45. In the world of money, which is a world shaped by human
behavior, nobody has the foggiest notion of what will happen in the future.
Mark that word - Nobody! Thus the successful trader does not base
moves on what supposedly will happen but reacts instead to what
does happen.

46. Except in unusual circumstances, get in the habit of taking
your profit too soon. Don't torment yourself if a trade continues
winning without you. Chances are it won't continue long. If it does,
console yourself by thinking of all the times when liquidating early
reserved the gains that you would have otherwise lost.

47. When the ship starts to sink, don't pray - jump.

48. Lose your opinion - not your money.

49. Assimilate into your very bones a set of trading rules that
works for you.

=====================================================================

KEY TIMES DURING THE MARKET DAY FOR TRADERS
As you will see, there are key times that we look for during the
trading day as being pivotal. Most days, the action centers around
those times. Other times of the day are more suitable for a trip
to the gas station or lawn bowling; Here are the pivot times we look
at for signs of life: (All times are EST)

9:30-9:50...Approx first 20 minutes of trading day. Time when
beginning traders lose money on whipsaws and experienced ones
capture quick profits. Avoid if you are the former.

9:50-10:10..Oftimes a period of reversal for early morning trades.
Market begins to settle into reality as early morning traders take
their profits and swing traders look for opportunities.

10:10 to 10:25...usually a continuation of whatever trend was set
up in last period.

10:25-10:35 ...A decision point for traders. Many times a turning
point reversal or accelerated continuation of previous setup.

11:15-2:00...go bowling...this is the "dangerous time of day" .
Traders lunch out and scalpers try to push the indices around to
make a quarter here or there.

2:00-2:30...market usually begins to pick up steam:

2:30-3:00...called the 3:00 bubble, even on weak days can show
strength into the next pivot point

3:05..if last period was just a bubble, will begin to break here,
Otherwise can be a good pivot point.

3:25-3:35...for trending days, this is the time when trends tend
to play out

3:40-3:45...can see reversals or acceleration into the close.
Reason is that all floor traders have their MOC orders in and everyone
has a pretty good idea where the closing range will be.

:: Henry Ford ::

=====================================================================


TRADING RULES AND DISCIPLINES
By Brad (Iceman039)


1) Always write down your trading rules and disciplines; never
assume
you know them all. A written set of rules and disciplines show you
are committed to this business. You can add to these rules as you
trade and develop strategies.

2) Always refer to and follow your "pre-determined" rules and
disciplines. Don't just write these down, refer to them regularly
and "live" by them. Be disciplined - the market pays you to be
disciplined.

3) Treat trading as if it is your own business. You are the
President
and C.E.O. of your own company. This is real money; it's your
money -
protect your interests at all times.

4) Always use "stop-loses" and stick to them. Know your stop-lose
before you enter a trade and put it into play.

5) Never let a winning trade turn into a losing trade. Profits are
profits no matter how small and they all add up in the end.
Remember, "no one ever lost money taking a profit".

6) Never let a day-trade turn into a bad investment. It may be big
enough to take you right out of the trading business and see you
sitting on the sidelines. DON'T BECOME A "BAG-HOLDER" !

7) A true day-trader is "flat" at the end of each day. Be "clean
and
green".

8) If you make 3 or more bad trades in a row - STOP TRADING. Go
back
to "paper trading". Once you have made 3 or more successful trades
then re-enter the "real money" trades with a lower than usual
share
amount. Earn the right to trade larger share quantities.

9) Leave your emotions out of the trading business. Your emotions
will never effect the direction of a stock and its value. If you
lose
at a trade except your loses "gracefully" and move on. Don't waste
time "stewing" over the trade or you may miss out on the next
opportunity.

10) Do not take a trade just to trade because you're anxious to
get
back in. Always know why you're going into a trade before you buy
into it. Plan your trades and trade your plans.

11) Never trade a stock with average volume less than 500,000
shares
per day.

12) Do not chase a stock, forget it and move on. The opportunities
are endless and the market will always be there.

13) Don't expect to make it all happen on one trade. Take a series
of
small profits and at the end of the day they'll all add up. You
are
more than likely to "lose it all" on one trade then "make it all"
on
one trade.

14)If you're not in the right state of mind to trade today because
of "outside influences" then take the day off and come back with a
clean head. Remember, it's your business and you're the boss.

15) Trade within a "trader friendly environment" which is
comfortable
for you and offers minimum distractions.

16) HAVE FUN ! If you don't enjoy trading then stop and find
another
line of work.


=====================================================================


Optionetics Articles

MARKET INSIGHT: Money Management

http://www.optionetics.com/articles/article_full.asp?idNo=8558

By Jody Osborne, Optionetics.com
6/19/2003 7:30:00 AM


We can find a lot of information about trading in books and on the
Web, but most of it details how to pick stocks and what strategies
that are available using options. However, one very important
aspect
of trading is often overlooked and this is money management. I
often
get the question, "Why did such and such stock move against us
when
everything was pointing at a good trade?" Trading is not an exact
science; if it were, there would not be a market because everyone
would know how to win. In sports, a team can often play a great
game
and still lose. The same thing can occur in trading. We can have
all
the odds in our favor, yet the stock will move against us.

Despite the fact that many trades will lose money, if we manage
our
trades appropriately, we can still make nice profits. In fact, we
can
make money trading even if our winning percentage is below 50
percent. In just a moment, I am going to discuss how this is
possible. However, before we go into some money management
techniques, we need to realize that we are going to have losing
trades. Even the best baseball team doesn't win every game. In
fact,
a 60 percent winning percentage is considered great in the sport.
This is similar to the options game, where a person who wins 60
percent of their trades should come out well ahead of the game.

Too many traders enter a trade without any idea of when they will
get
out. Not only should we have a profit exit set, but we should also
have a loss target set. With some strategies, we might be willing
to
risk the entire capital used, while others we might have a mental
stop loss in place. Regardless of where your targets reside, it is
important to have them ahead of entering the trade. This is
because
emotion will dominate our trading decisions if we don't have an
idea
of what to do ahead of time.

Now, just to show that we don't have to be right every trade,
let's
take a look at a table showing the profits made using various
winning
percentages. There is an old saying that states "Let your profits
run
and cut your losses short." It is this basis that gives us the
following table.

Winning % Ave Win Tot Win Ave Loss Tot Loss # of Trades
Profit

40% $500 $4,000 $250 $3,000 20
$1,000
50% $500 $5,000 $250 $2,500 20
$2,500
60% $500 $6,000 $250 $2,000 20
$4,000


Table 1: Profits Using Various Winning Percentages

Notice that by having a 2-to-1 win to loss ratio, we would have
profits even if we only win 40 percent of the time. It is also
important that we allocate an equal amount of capital to each
trade.
Many traders will put large amounts of money into trades they
think
are the best. However, if this trade doesn't pan out, it can erase
the gains made from other trades.

There are various strategies to manage your trading account, but
the
key is to have a plan. The idea is to "plan your trade and trade
your
plan." This means knowing ahead of time where our exits lay and
keeping a good record of the trades we have made in the past.
Though
we can't win every time, we can learn to manage our money better
so
that the losses aren't a problem for the long-term performance of
our
trading account.


Jody Osborne
Senior Writer & Options Strategist
Optionetics.com ~ Your Options Education Site
Visit Jody's Forum


=====================================================================


MAY ALL YOUR FILLS BE COMPLETE


da-net
55 posts
msg #36666
Ignore da-net
7/2/2005 8:38:23 PM

Alex,

I took a look at the results from your three filters, and it was unclear as to what your directional thinking was based upon your filters or the results. Could you please share what if any directional bias you have with each filter? What if any further analysis did you perform to choose your trades? What position sizing were you taking? How about posting any four of your trades last week winners or loosers, the day you took the position, and any other pertinent info you wish to share?



shelupinin
120 posts
msg #36704
Ignore shelupinin
7/4/2005 7:49:16 AM

To da-net:
the idea of first filter is to find stock which are bouncing high, the oroginal filter is
Fetcher[set{ClOp,close - open}
set{x1,clop / open}
set{pct, x1 * 100}
set{y,count(pct is above 10, 40)}
y > 10
add column pct
add column y
]


It is not my filter, I've posted idee of the filter at SF forum and "TheRumpledOne" answered me with such filter. The idea of last two filters is simple, just to find stocks which are droppes down to high...
I had 20000 USD on account, so 80000usd marginable, I bought 10 stocks every day, so 8000 usd per stock... most trades was closed due to 1% stop loss... I guess I found at least one reason why most trades was closed ... For entering market I used "wait for green" signal from prophet.net, I bought stocks after first 30 minutes after market opens, so many stock was already up 0.5%-1.5%, I set 1% stop loss, but 1% stop from current price, not from open price, so even if stock droppes to market open price it was sold...
still fear to trade.... I guess I will wait for next salary and will start trade with more money, more diversified portfolio with 2%-3% stop loss....
one good filter to share:
Fetcher[set{ClOp,close - open}
set{x1,clop / open}
set{pct, x1 * 100}
set{y,count(pct is above 10, 40)}
y > 2
and rsi(2) is below 1
and 30 day slope of the close is above 0
and price is below 2
and volume is above 100000
]


try to backtest it for last year, from 06/29/2004 to 06/29/2004 with conditions:
5% profit stop, no stop loss, 7 days holding period.
ROI=526%, win/lose ratio = 88% / 9% !!!


corsino
259 posts
msg #36705
Ignore corsino
7/4/2005 11:21:11 AM

Shelupinin
Please try to learn a little more about technical analysis before you start trading again. Do not follow filters blindly, with little idea of what you are doing. If you don't, the results will be similar to your first experience. Although your stockbroker will love you.


da-net
55 posts
msg #36707
Ignore da-net
7/4/2005 1:13:26 PM

Hi Alex.

I have a mirror image of what I believe to be your problem. My Chinese friends are trying to teach me to speak Mandarian and I am finding it difficult. You appear to be having problems with the English language and its concepts (which is an extremely hard language to understand).

I will quote you so that you might gain a better understanding.

"the idea of first filter is to find stock which are bouncing high" .... What this statement says is that You are looking for stocks that have come off a support point or a bottom and are finding new highs. EG: 26 week or 52 week high

What the filter supplied to you does is look for stocks that have made a high and have or are retracing from that high (resistance area) to a support point EG: Fibonacci 38.2% retracement level

"The idea of last two filters is simple, just to find stocks which are droppes down to high..." What I think you mean here is find stocks which have reached a resistance point (high) and are falling from that high. The first filter supplied to you may be a good place to start with your thinking. Remember DO NOT TRY TO CATCH A FALLING KNIFE!

As to deverisifying your portfolio, why not take advantage of your current situation, build a custom filter (one statement at a time, try starting with volume statements), paper trade for awhile and only trade 1 position as a swing trader not a daytrader. After you have your filter built properly, become more of a technical trader, and profitably paper traded, THEN start back live trading with only one position at a time (limit your risk).

The person that posted that you need some technical training is correct. You might want to try the Chart School on John Murphy's site www.stockcharts.com and another great site is www.incrediblecharts.com Both of these are free and you can gain lots of help from them.

If you want my help with building a custom filter, email me at dagroup@hotmail.com


corsino
259 posts
msg #36717
Ignore corsino
7/5/2005 2:30:50 AM

Well, I don't think that the filters themselves are the main problem. It is the use of the filters. I clicked on one of the filters, and it listed about 35 stocks. Most were penny stocks. I looked at the charts, etc..,of the first dozen or so, and I would have considered buying maybe two at the most, for various reasons. For one thing, a relatively inexperienced person daytrading penny stocks has as much chance to make money as a snowball in hell. He is juicy meat for the sharks out there.
Another item I'll comment on are the magical words "money management". People are fond of "proving" mathematically that you can lose 4 out of 5 times and make money. Sure, theoretically, you can. But the fact is that if you lose 50%, it takes a 100 % gain just to break even. It would take impeccable money management, which most people can't do, to overcome such a deficit. Now, there's no question that some are capable enough to do it, but I doubt that the average beginner can.
The above opinions are not meant to discourage any beginner, but the truth is that it is VERY difficult to make significant money, over a significant period of time.In fact, I have read statements by traders that depend on fundamental analysis that they didn't know anybody that made money using technical analysis. While I don't fully agree with them,I do agree that it's not easy.


StockFetcher Forums · General Discussion · psychological problems after loose<< 1 2 3 4 >>Post Follow-up

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