StockFetcher Forums · General Discussion · scouring the planet for filters<< 1 2 >>Post Follow-up
jrbikes
624 posts
msg #46176
Ignore jrbikes
8/3/2006 8:25:11 PM

I have come to the conclusion that all indicators are somewhat lagging in their ability to predict future price movements, all MA crossovers,DMA and all the technical indicators will just serve to drive you crazy if you let them, I have also come to the conclusion that it is best to pick a MA crossover and about 2, maybe 3 indicators (OBV, MACD, Momentum) whatever you like, and stick with it.
DEVISE a system that you have faith in and track it so you know if it has merit, simplicity is key, I have searched for the filter that will lead me to riches and it does not exist, Monty python went looking for the Holy Grail and got slaughtered by flying rabbits, they are not searching anymore!


nikoschopen
2,824 posts
msg #46177
Ignore nikoschopen
8/4/2006 3:22:10 AM

As they say, the bulls make money, the bears make money, but the pigs get slaughtered. This also applies to indicators and filters. I too have the badge of honor of being part of the statistics in my quest to find the holy grail only to realize that the only Eldorado is the cold reality of disillusionment. There is no one-size-fits-all indicator. Just because one indicator didn't work for you doesn't guarantee that the next indicator will not fail either. Will you then forever change your strategy to justify your pipe dream that the next indicator just might be the saving grace that will land you on the next flight to your fantasy getaway? Don't be a pig!


jrbikes
624 posts
msg #46178
Ignore jrbikes
8/4/2006 7:21:10 AM

ah, well said nickoshopen, the malady of the human existence, they told me that I would have to pay for my education in the market, they were right, lesson learned!


shelupinin
120 posts
msg #46179
Ignore shelupinin
8/4/2006 7:30:36 AM

it's evidence that no indicator can predict future, since nobody in the worls can predict future. How can a technical indicator(which in it's nature is some mathematics added to price/volume movements in the past) predict future events in the world? How indicator can predict will Federal reserve rise interest rates or not? (which actually has a strong influence to stock prices) How can indicator predict the earnings report which may be higher/lower expectations and thus stock price will rise/drop? ANY technical indicator can give only probability of future price movements in some conditions, and nothing more!!!
Alex


Koronbock
201 posts
msg #46181
Ignore Koronbock
8/4/2006 8:58:12 AM

Well said and absolutely true!






heypa
283 posts
msg #46183
Ignore heypa
8/4/2006 11:52:53 AM

Indicators can only reduce the number of stocks to review when looking for the next winner.Look at the chart and let your brain select those that may improve in price.Be very picky.You don't have to buy today.No mechanical system will pick winners consistantly.You will do better visually picking them.If in doubt stay out and never buy a dropping stock.Remember the hot knife and butter.We don't all have TRO's talent.


as214
184 posts
msg #46188
Ignore as214
8/4/2006 3:08:21 PM

Buy and Hold works. It's a falisy passed down from brokerages houses that buy and hold doesnt work. Ive turned 25k into millions in just 8 years buy buying sh*t that was beaten down unjustly and holding, adding to my position on dips and pullbacks.. If youre in the upper income bracket and hold for at least a year youre only taxed 15%.. as opposed to approx. 35 percent by constantly buying and selling. Thats 20 % gain on your money just for doing nothing. Value is the way to go now and forever. The greatest trader of all tme Jesse Livermore ended up broke and put a bullet in his head. The greatest investor of all time just donated over 30 billion to charity, and is a happy and content man.


nikoschopen
2,824 posts
msg #46189
Ignore nikoschopen
8/4/2006 3:43:16 PM

as214,

Jesse Livermore might have put a hole in his skull, but can you know for certain that it was the result of financial ruin? As far as I know, his financial standing was on a firm footing when he bit the bullet, so I'm told. Moreover, he's filed for bankruptcy more than once and still have managed to repay his debts and some more. Ure conclusion that trading based on short-term growth potential (aka momentum trading) is unsound is premature to say the least. You have millionaires in both growth and value camps. As TRO is so fond of saying, "it just ain't what you trade, but how you trade that will break ure back". I think that's worth repeating, don't ya think?


as214
184 posts
msg #46192
Ignore as214
8/4/2006 9:18:34 PM

Unemotionally attached, he went home that fateful day as one of the richest men in America; while other men were jumping out of windows or shooting themselves. In a strange twist of fate, he would die in the same way. On November 28, 1940, Livermore walked into the restroom of one of his favorite restaurants. He sat down on a stool at the end of the cloakroom. He pulled out a 32-caliber Colt automatic pistol, pointed it at the right side of his head and pulled the trigger. He died instantly. The fortune he had so cleverly made in the boom years of 1920-1930 had been lost. After the crash, distractions and tragedy in his personal life clouded his judgment. He lost his insight and trading skills. His financial fortunes snowballed downhill. He began to lose money as easily as he had made it. On March 5, 1934 he filed for bankruptcy. He had gone long too early and lost the majority of his fortune. For the last six years of his life, Jesse Livermore lived comfortably before his premature death thanks to annuities he had set up when his fortune was still intact.





nikoschopen
2,824 posts
msg #46193
Ignore nikoschopen
8/4/2006 11:11:23 PM

Although it was never my intention to debate you on just what led to Livermore's premature demise, ure point is well taken. However, I ask that you cite ure sources in the future. By sifting through the net, I gather ure source is from another webpage [http://www.financialsense.com/stormwatch/oldupdates/2002/0614.htm]. Be that as it may, even the webmaster omitted any reference to his or her fact-free statement. I have read as much as I could on Livermore, but I've yet to hear such fanciful tale of misfortune as being the source of Livermore's death. It's no secret that so many idiotic ramblings have gained prominence in the pantheon of fabricated evidence that I'm afraid they will be labeled as a de facto truth. Nevertheless, ure insight into buy and hold strategy can never be appreciated enough. I believe even a hardcore trader junkie like myself could learn a thing or two from the likes of Warren Buffett.





StockFetcher Forums · General Discussion · scouring the planet for filters<< 1 2 >>Post Follow-up

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