StockFetcher Forums · Public Filter List · Kevin from Ga<< 1 2 >>Post Follow-up
stockfetcher01
25 posts
msg #81705
Ignore stockfetcher01
10/24/2009 9:11:17 PM

Kevin,

You were kind enough to give me this example to comapare to mine,but no matter what variables I imput on the back test, it comes up bad. Any ideas on on stop limit, days to hold, # of trades etc? Thanks for your valuable time.

CLOSE 1 DAY AGO IS BELOW LOWER BOLLINGER BANDS(16,2.5) 1DAY AGO
and close is above close 1 day ago
and close is above 1
and volume is above 50000

SF

Kevin_in_GA
4,543 posts
msg #81727
Ignore Kevin_in_GA
10/25/2009 5:22:38 PM

Kevin,

You were kind enough to give me this example to comapare to mine,but no matter what variables I imput on the back test, it comes up bad. Any ideas on on stop limit, days to hold, # of trades etc? Thanks for your valuable time.

CLOSE 1 DAY AGO IS BELOW LOWER BOLLINGER BANDS(16,2.5) 1DAY AGO
and close is above close 1 day ago
and close is above 1
and volume is above 50000
++++++++++++++++++

Fetcher[

CLOSE 1 DAY AGO IS BELOW LOWER BOLLINGER BANDS(16,2.5) 1 DAY AGO
and close is above close 1 day ago
and close is above 1
and volume is above 50000

]



You need a space between 1DAY.

Backtest conditions are simple:

1. No stop loss or trailing stop (leave blank).

2. 20% profit stop.

3. No maximum time to hold (leave blank).

4. Exit trigger is "close is above upper Bollinger bands(16,2.5)".

5. All other setting are kept at default.



stockfetcher01
25 posts
msg #81738
Ignore stockfetcher01
10/25/2009 8:37:50 PM

Thanks for you help Kevin, really nice of you. I will give it a try.

SF

stockfetcher01
25 posts
msg #82217
Ignore stockfetcher01
11/1/2009 11:06:30 AM

Kevin,

You sent me this as part of an answer to another question( BTY works great back testing) question, in real life trading do you let your $ ride without a stop loss or is that just to fool the stockfetcher for better results? I have been taught that stops are very important to protect your investment. What would be the reason behind no profit stop other than a better backtest result? Am I looking at this the wrong way?

Thanks Kevin, really appreciate your advise.


PS: I love the idea of your trading log and will follow it if you stay with it.


You need a space between 1DAY.

Backtest conditions are simple:

1. No stop loss or trailing stop (leave blank).

2. 20% profit stop.

3. No maximum time to hold (leave blank).

4. Exit trigger is "close is above upper Bollinger bands(16,2.5)".

5. All other setting are kept at default.


Kevin_in_GA
4,543 posts
msg #82234
Ignore Kevin_in_GA
modified
11/1/2009 3:41:23 PM

You sent me this as part of an answer to another question ( BTY works great back testing) question, in real life trading do you let your $ ride without a stop loss or is that just to fool the stockfetcher for better results? I have been taught that stops are very important to protect your investment. What would be the reason behind no profit stop other than a better backtest result? Am I looking at this the wrong way?
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

No, you are not looking at this the wrong way, but neither am I. It depends on how you approach it.

If you develop a system that provides good results under a given set of entry and exit conditions, and you have backtested under over a significantly long period of time to feel comfortable with its accuracy, why would you change any of the settings once REAL money is in play?

Why optimize a system's performance, then do not follow its rules? That is not advisable.

Neither is running a trade without some form of risk management. If you read my thread thoroughly, you'd see that I only risked $1000 on any trade, and was willing to lose it all (as it would still keep me in line with the 2% rule). Therefore I did not feel compelled to put in stops (which reduced profitability during backtesting) because I had managed the risk by placing many small bets versus fewer large ones.

Also, you cannot fool the backtesting, you can only fool yourself. Backtesting does not pass judgement, it only provides results. If I ignore what it says to do because I don't like the answer, why run it at all? If having a stop loss is critical for your peace of mind, then always put one in your system. That is what most people do.


Kevin

stockfetcher01
25 posts
msg #82285
Ignore stockfetcher01
11/2/2009 6:44:28 PM

I understand, thanks you make a lot of sense.

SF from New Orleans

Kevin_in_GA
4,543 posts
msg #82324
Ignore Kevin_in_GA
11/3/2009 10:57:18 AM

SF:

I don't want to confuse you - I DO use stop losses on my stock trades. Just this system, which seemed to backtest quite well over the last 5 years, did best without them.

I made a conscious decision to trade this way FOR THIS SYSTEM ONLY. I use stop losses and profit stops on real trades. Please note that I am out of this system (in fact, I am essentially out of all stocks at the moment, sitting on the sidelines except for a few small bets occasionally triggered by volatility signals).

For any new or experienced trader, you should always have a money managment strategy in place - do not risk more than 1-2% of your trading capital on any one trade. I did this with the BB strategy by placing small bets.

I usually divide my trading capital into 10 units, and set a 10% stop loss on any unit traded (thereby limiting any loss to only 1% of my capital).

Kevin

climber-man
3 posts
msg #82371
Ignore climber-man
11/3/2009 8:21:31 PM

Hi, I added on just a bit to the filter, it did imporve for the time frame I tested over. I'd make it clickable if i knew the code:

CLOSE 1 DAY AGO IS BELOW LOWER BOLLINGER BANDS(16,2.5) 1 DAY AGO
and close is above close 1 day ago
and weekly rsi(30) is below 45
and draw ma(10)
and draw ema(30)
add column weekly rsi(30)
and close is above 1
and average volume(30) is above 5000




chetron
2,817 posts
msg #82398
Ignore chetron
modified
11/4/2009 6:34:01 AM

just put it inside of
Fetcher[ ]




Fetcher[
CLOSE 1 DAY AGO IS BELOW LOWER BOLLINGER BANDS(16,2.5) 1 DAY AGO
and close is above close 1 day ago
and weekly rsi(30) is below 45
and draw ma(10)
and draw ema(30)
add column weekly rsi(30)
and close is above 1
and average volume(30) is above 5000
]



Kevin_in_GA
4,543 posts
msg #82410
Ignore Kevin_in_GA
modified
11/4/2009 9:16:42 AM

average volume of only 5000 - that's pretty thinly traded. I had used 50000 in my backtest.

I did make an investment on one stock this thinly traded by accident (ticker is DL). Got in at 8.00, and ultimately pulled the plug at 7.10 after the stock would trade only a 1000 shares or so a day. Caveat emptor.

StockFetcher Forums · Public Filter List · Kevin from Ga<< 1 2 >>Post Follow-up

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