StockFetcher Forums · Stock Picks and Trading · IT IS CRITICAL!!<< 1 2 >>Post Follow-up
shillllihs
2,506 posts
msg #124561
Ignore shillllihs
modified
7/30/2015 7:40:49 PM

I believe it is critical that all you folks concentrate on creating & sharing new filters
concentrating on entry & exit of SPY. Get away from the individual stocks & really
focus on this etf for safety & consistency.
A daily, or even monthly system producing 50% or better would be divine!!

GO CATS GO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Kevin_in_GA
3,976 posts
msg #124562
Ignore Kevin_in_GA
7/30/2015 8:13:50 PM

Others may think this is achievable, but I am convinced that it is not.

I have personally run over 2 million different brute force combinations of indicators on SPY and no result ever even got close to that annual return level. I do not believe that any combination, including combinations of long and short trades, can meet that goal over any reasonable time frame (say the last 10 years).

shillllihs
2,506 posts
msg #124563
Ignore shillllihs
7/30/2015 10:26:17 PM

That's a shame. Well i still can dream.

I really think this can be accomplished by shorting tvix, but figuring out margin requirements
would be your biggest challenge.

It goes to show that possibly some entity is making sure to
keep the market as random as possible where no indicator
ever excels for long.

I believe i have come close with my strats over at C2, but got in the game at a very volatile time.

If this can be achieved, it will be done with a combination of leveraged etfs or xiv,
cci, rsi & parabolic, but that 1 elusive indicator that puts it over the top will never be found.

Kevin_in_GA
3,976 posts
msg #124565
Ignore Kevin_in_GA
7/31/2015 9:04:40 AM

Well, shorting TVIX is not a trading system built on SPY - what you are describing is using SPY signals to trade other (and highly leveraged) ETFs. That I have not looked at.

shillllihs
2,506 posts
msg #124566
Ignore shillllihs
7/31/2015 2:48:33 PM

No, i agree with that. From my findings it is not possible. But i think i have come close
using spy/sh as a lead to trade xiv. Just not good at automating my system though.
I think it's good.

shillllihs
2,506 posts
msg #124578
Ignore shillllihs
8/3/2015 10:16:53 AM

In TAN for the long haul.

shillllihs
2,506 posts
msg #124595
Ignore shillllihs
8/4/2015 5:43:44 PM

Guggenheim Solar ETF (TAN) -NYSEArca
33.93 Down 0.29(0.85%) 4:00PM EDT
After Hours : 37.11 Up 3.18 (9.37%) 4:56PM EDT

what happened here

karennma
6,420 posts
msg #125030
Ignore karennma
9/17/2015 7:33:03 AM

IT IS CRITICAL!!

shillllihs
1,318 posts
msg #124561
- Ignore shillllihs
modified 7/30/2015 7:40:49 PM
I believe it is critical that all you folks concentrate on creating & sharing new filters
concentrating on entry & exit of SPY. Get away from the individual stocks & really
focus on this etf for safety & consistency.
A daily, or even monthly system producing 50% or better would be divine!!
====================

I agree re: "sharing" in general.
Most of my picks are posted on Intraday Alerts.
I think maybe a lot of peeps don't post because they're afraid they might be wrong, or they'll be criticized.
But everyone should understand, filters can be tweaked and picks are "at your own risk".
I am so appreciative to those who have the guts to share ...
Four, Mactheriverrat, JP, Kevin, mahkoh to name a few ... Thanks, guys!
After my recent AMBA loss, I need all the help I can get.
:>/






Eman93
4,583 posts
msg #130802
Ignore Eman93
9/1/2016 11:43:13 PM

Kevin_in_GA
3,683 posts
msg #124562
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA 7/30/2015 8:13:50 PM

Others may think this is achievable, but I am convinced that it is not.

I have personally run over 2 million different brute force combinations of indicators on SPY and no result ever even got close to that annual return level. I do not believe that any combination, including combinations of long and short trades, can meet that goal over any reasonable time frame (say the last 10 years).
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I think you need to have 3 systems .. one for bullish trend, one for range bound and one for bear trend.
You see one system cant do it all, you don't want to be shorting in the bullish trend and vice versa. Use various market periods to back test and optimise the 3 systems.. then trade them.

I've seen long term weekly charts trading the 13/34 cross but you are going to have some serious draw downs at times and only 8 crosses since 09.

StefanM
25 posts
msg #130829
Ignore StefanM
9/3/2016 7:57:48 AM

Kevin, as you wrote about StrataSearch: I am also running this, I simply run a brute force over the stocks within the S&P500. I found a combination which returns about 30% since 2005. Not that I would not be satisfied with 30% per average, but I would like to know how you think that the brute force results still could be improved.
Optimization strategy, walk forward analysys etc.. you know what I mean, as you know StrataSearch. Are you running something like this after your brute force search?


StockFetcher Forums · Stock Picks and Trading · IT IS CRITICAL!!<< 1 2 >>Post Follow-up

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