StockFetcher Forums · Stock Picks and Trading · Shills Swing N Daily<< 1 ... 226 227 228 229 230 ... 367 >>Post Follow-up
shillllihs
3,545 posts
msg #131769
Ignore shillllihs
10/5/2016 3:33:46 PM

I like this
https://finance.yahoo.com/q/pm?s=FTABX+Performance


I mean if you want to get out of the trading game, no headache.
Just keep pouring cash into it.
Best time to buy after a down year.

johnpaulca
11,315 posts
msg #131770
Ignore johnpaulca
10/5/2016 3:34:49 PM

Hey Souvlaki.....I think you're suffering from some sort of brain trauma, should check out a neurologist, yes!!

Kevin_in_GA
4,555 posts
msg #131771
Ignore Kevin_in_GA
10/5/2016 4:15:10 PM

I like Kevin--nice guy, smart guy. But the definition of a successful trade is not a non-busted trade. I don't want to front 100K and tie up that capital to make $1K.

Thanks - two thoughts on this.

1. While a non-busted trade may not be seen as "successful" by some, I think we all agree that a busted trade is a failure. Consistently profitable trades with a positive expectancy

EXPECTANCY = (win% * average return on winners) - (loss% * average loss on losers)

indicates a winning system, while a consistent string of weak or busted trades is a systematic failure. The occasional large win must be supported by lots of other smaller wins to offset the occasional large loss. Otherwise you are basically treading water.

2. I am fine tying up 100K for no more than 10 days if I can make $1000. That annualizes to more than 35% per year which beats 99% of all investors. If it took a month to make 1% you would still be beating 95% of all investors in annual returns.

I have been trading a small 200K account using predominantly just the ^VIX system since 8/1, and am up 14K (7%) during that time (with the S&P 500 still down about 0.5%). Had I followed it religiously, I would be up another 10K. My bad for not doing what I should have, but the point I am trying to make is you do not need to swing for the fences on every trade. You need to have a reliable systematic approach that you follow, and not keep trying to second guess based on news or a gut feeling. This is something I am trying to work on and get better at.

shillllihs
3,545 posts
msg #131772
Ignore shillllihs
10/5/2016 4:23:58 PM

Pt,

Look at this in your spare time and tell me if it's viable. I didn't give it too much thought
when putting it together. It was about a year ago just trying out a system. You could be honest.



When FAGIX dips under 10, go long SPXL until it goes under 7. Wait till it goes over 7, then go long LBND, UJB, or short SBND.


shillllihs
3,545 posts
msg #131773
Ignore shillllihs
10/5/2016 4:47:16 PM

Joan, you bring very little to the table, no system, no anything, in fact I find Four even more valuable
than you with his endless news stories and mindless filters. But I got to say his filters have gotten
much better. I even value Karrena over you for she is the ultimate contrarian indicator.
You are slightly more valuable than Tro but that's not saying too much.
And if Kevin could finally get it together, and stop trying to hit singles that turn into double plays,
He could be King of SF.



Hope you all have enjoyed the roast.

johnpaulca
11,315 posts
msg #131774
Ignore johnpaulca
10/5/2016 6:48:56 PM

Joan, you bring very little to the table, no system, no anything, in fact I find Four even more valuable
than you with his endless news stories and mindless filters. But I got to say his filters have gotten
much better. I even value Karrena over you for she is the ultimate contrarian indicator.
You are slightly more valuable than Tro but that's not saying too much.
And if Kevin could finally get it together, and stop trying to hit singles that turn into double plays,
He could be King of SF.
*********************************************************************************************************************
monsieur Slovaki....Your are correct my little puff pastry, I didn't show my system on SF. I don't recall you doing the same...no value added either. Who the hell are you to bash others posting here...Shut the F#$k up fat boy and go park some cars....giddy up!!!



pthomas215
1,033 posts
msg #131779
Ignore pthomas215
10/5/2016 8:03:38 PM

shillihs, I will take a look at it. Kevin, everyone has their comfort level with the hold tolerance they see as being reasonable. For example, I am not comfortable being $5,000 down on the VIX because I went long on it multiple times in the middle of a bull.

shillllihs
3,545 posts
msg #131780
Ignore shillllihs
modified
10/5/2016 8:08:32 PM

Well that was the first person I ever put on ignore. He did come to my thread bashing at least
15 times. He was like a bad lingering stale fart. I think he has a bad drinking problem.

Although Kevin is kind of stuffy shirt, he may be the only one that might eventually create
a highly profitable system but as of now it's just a work in progress.

Kevin_in_GA
4,555 posts
msg #131781
Ignore Kevin_in_GA
modified
10/5/2016 8:13:03 PM

Kevin, everyone has their comfort level with the hold tolerance they see as being reasonable. For example, I am not comfortable being $5,000 down on the VIX because I went long on it multiple times in the middle of a bull.

+++++++++++

I understand, but you are letting past errors control your current trading strategy. In those losses, did you stick religiously to a system? Did you even have a system, or were they trades made on a hunch?

If I had to guess, you probably tried to "get ahead of the market" and got schooled. I've been there, and it sucks. However, the issue was not with trading the ^VIX, it was with a lack of a clear and validated strategy for entering and exiting the trade, and the use of position sizing.

Every system, no matter how good, will have losses that sometimes are uncomfortably large. That does not invalidate the system, it simply is part of the game. You need to have an edge, and patience. Not trying to get all preachy here, just trying to point out that having a well-defined system should help make your trading better, not worse.

shillllihs
3,545 posts
msg #131782
Ignore shillllihs
modified
10/5/2016 8:20:56 PM

They say not to look at NAV to buy a sector but from experience mutual funds with very low NAVs
are the ones that seem poised to run. So when I see NAVs between 3 and 7, I scoop them up via ETF.

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