shillllihs
5,992 posts
msg #138946
- Ignore shillllihs |
10/28/2017 6:25:25 PM
As I said before, I believe there are 3 distinct markets,
1.Bull
2.Wavy
3.Bear
Seems that we are a month away from a very nice Xiv drop then a rebound followed by possibly another plunge. Last one lasted 18 months. Just a heads up that filters may start going haywire.
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #138949
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
10/28/2017 8:25:31 PM
I think that thesis may be reasonable - volatility will rise ahead of the budget showdown on 8 Dec, which will be resolved by the usual "kick the can down the road" solution, but the promised tax reform will get stalled in Q4 and the markets will punish this perceived failure.
Or worse, tax reform passes ...
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shillllihs
5,992 posts
msg #138953
- Ignore shillllihs
modified |
10/28/2017 11:19:54 PM
Phase 2 (the choppy stage) occurred from 07/14 to about 03/16.
Shorting Tmv or Xiv would have been good plays but Tmv would have been smoother
and less volatile.
I don't know how you can safely go long in this environment fr long without decay and whipsaws. This stage can also slip into a bear market.
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shillllihs
5,992 posts
msg #138969
- Ignore shillllihs |
10/30/2017 11:52:33 AM
Tmv short in play today. Should slowly drop another 6% or so.
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shillllihs
5,992 posts
msg #138972
- Ignore shillllihs |
10/30/2017 1:19:14 PM
Long XIV and short TMV at the same time? Could be done.
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shillllihs
5,992 posts
msg #138973
- Ignore shillllihs |
10/30/2017 2:06:32 PM
They're trying to create indecision in the market to take bonds up a bit, shan't be much.
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shillllihs
5,992 posts
msg #138979
- Ignore shillllihs |
10/31/2017 9:36:49 AM
Got taken out of Xiv yesterday at 107.44, I scurried for a solution and got back in at 108.01.
Also went short Tmv 15.33 I think. Can't remember.
It's funny how tough it can be to make decisions on the fly when all the different parts are moving during trading hours, and how ez it is when the market closes. It's like you get amnesia. I did pretty well but always looking to improve.
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shillllihs
5,992 posts
msg #138996
- Ignore shillllihs
modified |
11/1/2017 11:18:39 AM
Closed TMV short 18.78, will drop more.
Took that and added to my XIV 112.45
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shillllihs
5,992 posts
msg #138997
- Ignore shillllihs |
11/1/2017 11:48:51 AM
My ratio of Xiv to tmv was 75% to 25%.
So I added 25%
If this runs it will be a huge run for possibly 2-3 weeks.
If not, it will have caught me by surprise.
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shillllihs
5,992 posts
msg #138998
- Ignore shillllihs |
11/1/2017 11:57:26 AM
Bad case scenario, this could dip to 100-102, worse case, it goes to 0.
On a big dip I'm bringing 800,000 in.
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