StockFetcher Forums · Stock Picks and Trading · Shills Swing N Daily<< 1 ... 78 79 80 81 82 ... 367 >>Post Follow-up
shillllihs
3,540 posts
msg #121568
Ignore shillllihs
modified
9/23/2014 2:25:19 PM

Take that back, I think UVXY may be good for another 20-25%.. 31-32 bucks...

shillllihs
3,540 posts
msg #121574
Ignore shillllihs
9/25/2014 12:08:24 PM

ATL @ .27.90 4000sh.

guspenskiy13
976 posts
msg #121575
Ignore guspenskiy13
9/25/2014 12:58:26 PM

XIV @ 39.44 half-position; that was a good prediction 2 days ago

SPY can drop to 194 something but that should be it; will average down if so

shillllihs
3,540 posts
msg #121576
Ignore shillllihs
9/25/2014 1:04:56 PM

I bailed the rest at 40.32. Was going to trade around a core but said skrew it. Was moving too wide as compared to SPY.


I have SPY 191.80 but who knows in this nutty market.

guspenskiy13
976 posts
msg #121577
Ignore guspenskiy13
modified
9/25/2014 1:19:55 PM

Active trading around the core is really the key w/ volatility I guess. I have been researching the topic forever, will post something big soon.

SPY @ 194 is just simple one SD wide LR; it might exceed a bit...but should be done there...

P.S. Nothing beats shorting TVIX's spikes with its decay...just gotta be patient and average down on that monster...

Yet still can't come up with any decent rules for shorting spikes...pathetic

shillllihs
3,540 posts
msg #121578
Ignore shillllihs
modified
9/25/2014 1:41:06 PM

I think i misjudged SPY AT 191.80. Hope you're right.

If you look at every gap up on an inverse leveraged ETF, you will see that it has returned back to that point at some time.
How you do this in a safe manner, i don't know. Works great with faz,tvix etc. But not so well with oil, gold, etc.

four
3,999 posts
msg #121580
Ignore four
9/25/2014 11:13:09 PM

gus

"Active trading around the core"

please provide some links...

looking forward to your thoughts...

shillllihs
3,540 posts
msg #121582
Ignore shillllihs
modified
9/26/2014 2:33:40 AM

Well from what i know, you buy a moderate position & you sell in increments on the way up & buy when it dips
below original purchase price? So if market shoots up, you at least have some skin in the game.

PATIENTS IS THE TOUGHEST PART OF THIS GAME.


The way to win at this game is to think of taking a small position, & then go even smaller than that in any & many different
strategies & stock opportunities that arise!!

For instance You like ABC at 5 bucks & you want to drop $5,000. Don't do it!! Start with $500 & either wait for a substantial drop or look for your next opportunity. So basically, you have these tiny little ships that either set sail or come back for refill. May take months... Patients...

guspenskiy13
976 posts
msg #121583
Ignore guspenskiy13
modified
9/26/2014 1:24:51 PM

I will provide some info as soon as I get some time...have been wanting to do it forever..

Meanwhile, XIV @ 39.44 half-position - quick 2% already, should be a decent entry for a little ride. Might even get lucky and add

lower - who knows. It's rare when you buy an instrument and you actually want it to go a bit lower lol.


"Well from what i know, you buy a moderate position & you sell in increments on the way up & buy when it dips
below original purchase price? So if market shoots up, you at least have some skin in the game."
__________________________________________________________________________________________

If we talk about a chunk of portfolio that you want to devote to XIV, you make a long-term portion that you will carry for some time.
You buy it on a nice dip and then you leave it. Because of the mean-reverting properties of XIV it's likely that it will show profit fast - but just leave it alone. Did you know that XIV de-leveraged by the factor of 5 provides same returns as SPY, but with ~30% SD less? You can just think of it as an investment in SPY, only better.

The next portion of your XIV portfolio should be cut into an X amount of chunks that you buy on the dips. By dips I mean not intra-day, but rather 61.8% move retracements and SPY at 1 SD LRC or near it. X chunks, because you are not likely to call bottoms perfectly. Look at XIV behaviour since start of July to mid August - I doubt anyone nailed the bottom. But if you have 3-4 chunks that you invested at the different price, they would all show you nice profit .

That's the best part about this particular investment - you can say f*ck you to all the financial experts, traders and all their rules and actually AVERAGE DOWN. Why? Because XIV is not a "normal" stock or instrument - it is RANGE-BOUND and MEAN-REVERTING.

Then I would leave a small portion of the portfolio for day-to-day quick 1-5 days or even intra-day swinging. That's because mean-reversion "works" on different time-frames and with give volatility, 1 to 3% intra-day are very possible. And if you miss it - it's OK, because maybe the reversion will take a week instead of 1-2 days that you expected.



"PATIENTS IS THE TOUGHEST PART OF THIS GAME."
______________________________________________

Not only the case of XIV but the case with speculation in general. Especially with XIV I guess. To be honest, one thing that I have found about myself recently - best trading decisions are taken when I go and don't plan on doing anything. I might be not even interested and concentrated too much on trading - just checking every 10-15 minutes the chart. This way I get interested only when there is an actually decent opportunity present.


"The way to win at this game is to think of taking a small position, & then go even smaller than that in any & many different
strategies & stock opportunities that arise!! "
_______________________________________________

Buying dips is even easier here, because the instrument we trade is based on VIX - which is range-bound. Imagine if you can physically trade VIX and you just accumulate at 12-13 - you can wait forever to sell it over 20.

We have a big position that gets its profits from long-term contango daily roll yield with VRP (volatility risk premium).

We have mid-term positions (3-6) that we add on decent dips on the daily chart and we get rid of some of them, when they show a substantial profit.

We have a short term position or positions, that we swing for intra-day or couple days. Hell, if XIV is in range - just buy it on a decent "red" day and you will MOST likely get 1-2% in 1-2 days on that.

As said two times before, I will make a post that will be more specific and structurized....later.

P.S.
Never use technicals on XIV - it's a derivative in the fifth power (SPX, SPX options, IV of SPX options, VIX calculations, VIX futures with VRP (volatility risk premium), 1-2 month daily roll yield ETN inversed based on VIX futures (that includes premium of SPX options and that include premium themselves).

P.P.S.
Since 2004 XIV buy-and-hold had ~34% CAGR and Sharpe in 0.7s....with GFC that won't ever happen again.... just something to consider....especially to those, who say it's a terrible long-term investment.

I'll be back.






shillllihs
3,540 posts
msg #121584
Ignore shillllihs
9/26/2014 4:03:09 PM

KWK 1700sh. .63

StockFetcher Forums · Stock Picks and Trading · Shills Swing N Daily<< 1 ... 78 79 80 81 82 ... 367 >>Post Follow-up

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