StockFetcher Forums · Stock Picks and Trading · Shills Swing N Daily<< 1 ... 88 89 90 91 92 ... 236 >>Post Follow-up
2,319 posts
msg #121904
Ignore shillllihs
11/4/2014 3:33:24 PM

I am unofficially the greatest swing trader on Stock fetcher. Until anyone comes remotely close,
i will not post anymore plays.

976 posts
msg #121905
Ignore guspenskiy13
11/4/2014 3:57:58 PM

Got caught on miners / taken out....still holding OIL.

Good question/'idea about UGAZ - I have been thinking about the same concept w/ oil.
If you look at oil for the past five years or really has been range-bound...just as VIX.
Gas in past +-3 years...relatively range-bound as well...
In comparison for the past five years, FAS, strongly trending security...

IMO the dynamics are absolutely different...since the pricing model for commodity futures vs. stocks is different.... different reasons for supply/demand as well...

The range-bound properties - that's what got me really interested in both oil and gas....if it's range-bound you can be wrong and it won't hurt too much...a 15% DD in range-bound security is nothing in comparison to a 15% DD in trending...

Just imagine that you could buy VIX each time it's under 13...and hold for mean-reversion to occur....amazing

UVXY@ 25.77. Next time SPY hits 200 it won't bounce...

2,319 posts
msg #121906
Ignore shillllihs
11/4/2014 4:05:54 PM

Explain what you mean about UVXY.

976 posts
msg #121907
Ignore guspenskiy13
11/4/2014 4:47:49 PM

Oh, I just think that SPY will break 200 to confirm demand at 197-199 levels in next couple days...unless something extra-ordinary happens.

One idea that I've recently got is that commodity ETF's might experience some tailwind from its futures being in contango... I get somewhat different number in Prophet/Google Finance...

But if we trust google finance...the results are interesting...:

SPGSNG (-2.39%)

UNG (-0.18%)

UGAZ (-40.64%)

DGAZ (-53.43%)

1) Strong correlation between spot gas and UNG is questionable

2) 3x ETFs get killed by volatility drag.

2,319 posts
msg #121908
Ignore shillllihs
11/4/2014 4:58:13 PM

So what is your forecast for ugaz/dgaz?

976 posts
msg #121909
Ignore guspenskiy13
11/4/2014 5:07:45 PM

Overall, most importantly:

So buy N Hold 3x ETFs is a bad idea. If you bought & held
FAS for 5 years, you would have made 1,000%.

My question is, Natural gas, (UGAZ) is very low & ready to climb , either now or soon.
Can a commodity sustain a long uphill march like FAS? Are the dynamics different inherently?

Well, someone incompetent has spread the word about "3x leveraged ETFs being absolute terrible" and blah blah blah.
I've recently read a paper that optimized different leverage on S&P and Nasdaq - 3x was too much, but 1.5 to 2-something did enhance the results and didn't hurt.

This brings us to the point that Buy'n'Hold 3x ETFs could be not a bad idea - but it depends on which ETF is leveraged.

Leverage greatly increases volatility drag - so if the underlying security is volatile - long-term it will lose money by a lot. We can see that with UGAZ being down YTD while spot gas is at break-even.

Leverage greatly increases consistent return in trending securities. That's why FAS is up so much in the past 5 years - it's underlying index has been trending nicely.

If you compare 5year underlying index of UGAZ to FAS:

R1RGSFS - (+59.74%)

SPGSNG - (+8.40%)

You don't need to be a prophet to tell who is trending and who is volatile...

Although, 5 year return is not quite an indicator of volatility...since:

GDX - (-59.38%)

DUST - (+121.95%)

GDX has been on a decline for the past 5 years, but because it has been bouncing from June '13 to September 14', DUST has
lost both its accumulated premium during previous trending fall and even more... At its highest time, GDX was down by 45% while DUST was up 227%... that's 5x leverage...

I hope what I've wrote above was somewhat meaningful... In terms of DGAZ/UGAZ... as you probably got already... if UNG (and underlying gas futures) will be in a strong up-trend - UGAZ will outperform 3X UNG due to the premium from low volatility/leverage. If UNG will make meaningless swings - UGAZ will decay from volatility well as DGAZ. So a short is a huge advantage....since the drag is on your side...

As it was said before, I see UNG as more of a mean-reverting asset rather than trending... so if you catch the mean-reversion wave without too much volatility... you can outperform the underlying index with its leveraged version by a bigger number, than its declared leverage... as it happened when GDX fell and NUGT went 5x.

976 posts
msg #121911
Ignore guspenskiy13
11/4/2014 9:53:19 PM

SPY 201.3 decision point measured by multiple indicators

QQQ 101.37 closed at major point w/ 101.48 decision; given the gap above all time high - should fill w/ demand @100 or slightly above

also short potential:

long potential:
GDX, GDXJ and derivatives - closed at the same level as 2 days ago. Either bot or down more? Might be a good idea to look at GLD which is somewhat triangular.

OIL/OIH - also longs; open could be interesting - should start filling the gap regardless of possible gap up - crude is up as of now.

976 posts
msg #121913
Ignore guspenskiy13
11/5/2014 8:56:14 AM

"I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed." - my friend was correct about the open, I didn't expect gap of this size.Might be a really nice fader IMO.

I would strongly watch gold and its miners; GDX will open just ~ 5% above its low of $15.83 set in 2007; which gives it ~ 420% range to all time high.

According to , VIX futures are setting into a nice contango curve which looks much prettier than a week ago. Good news for XIV.

2,319 posts
msg #121917
Ignore shillllihs
11/5/2014 4:38:26 PM

Sold JNUG @ open on 04

Direxion Daily Jr Gld Mnrs Bull 3X ETF (JNUG)
3.10 Down 0.80(20.51%

I will continue to hold Ugaz/DGAZ til 3.12

976 posts
msg #121921
Ignore guspenskiy13
11/5/2014 10:02:45 PM

I was selling GPRO scaling in/out through the day; quite volatile although shouldn't be talking about volatility - JNUG ~31% day range today. Certainly something I would look at as miners at least should mean-revert and at most get island reversal tomorrow.

Down on UVXY - pretty big gap in SPY. Two huge gaps in past 4 days - ~1.2% and 0.7%. Quite amazed that the volume today was even lower than yesterday - and consecutive volume decrease (Mon/Tue almost identical) in past three days.

The gas trend is quite impressive - although its dojis after a run-up quite often signal a reversal.

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