StockFetcher Forums · Filter Exchange · PORTFOLIO SELECTION AND MANAGEMENT USING RISK/REWARD RATIOS<< 1 ... 43 44 45 46 47 ... 65 >>Post Follow-up
Kevin_in_GA
4,548 posts
msg #113137
Ignore Kevin_in_GA
5/5/2013 2:03:20 PM

Systems are never 100% accurate - nothing is. My decision to step outside of this month's signal is a personal one that may simply remind me that my gut instinct is no good.

My analogy might be that you are a coach and have a great pitcher, but one that always seems to let A-Rod hit a homer off of him. Doesn't matter how good he is against other batters, A-Rod always seems to make him regret throwing the ball.

As a coach, what do you do? Tell him to throw hard, or walk him? Sometimes you just have to look at patterns within patterns and take the safer option.

dtatu
69 posts
msg #113169
Ignore dtatu
5/7/2013 9:38:13 AM

You're right, Kevin: systems are,indeed, never 100% accurate...Humans are much less,though. And, what usually happens is that when you finally decide to go back to the system you'll maybe hit the worst month of the year?

Kevin_in_GA
4,548 posts
msg #113173
Ignore Kevin_in_GA
5/7/2013 10:16:00 AM

Possibly. Time will tell.

Kevin_in_GA
4,548 posts
msg #113388
Ignore Kevin_in_GA
5/14/2013 12:52:42 PM

Well - I have missed out on about 3.5% of returns so far. Arrgh. However, the month is only half over. I would rather see it stay up than go down, since I do not make money either way as I am sitting in a Stable Value fund this month. Good luck to everyone here.

gmg733
620 posts
msg #113400
Ignore gmg733
5/14/2013 7:58:28 PM

Don't feel bad, I got out a week before you did. My only saving grace is I've been long some xlu for a little profit.

Misery loves company. :)

dtatu
69 posts
msg #114104
Ignore dtatu
6/15/2013 12:06:57 AM

Yes, you should feel bad !!
Solidarity in stupid decisions and stupid losses, this is what conforts you?
You put together a simple and , what seems to be, a profitable system and you are not even able to follow it step by step? Yes, you should feel bad !
A profitable system is a SUM of wins and losses with a positive (profitable) outcome. The losse are part of the system ! You take them ALL or you are OUT of your system and you lost your time since 2010 in this Forum...
Actually , this Forum seems to be lead by an Academic of systems- unable to pull the trigger himself in real time, and a bunch of losers , who are unable to...anything !
I'm out, but I should thank Kevin for his idea, which I took as a basis to some very profitable, sytematic, disciplined trading on etfreplay.But I do trade them ALL and take the losses and wins, as they are BOTH essential !
Maybe one day you'll get it...

jimmyjazz
99 posts
msg #114105
Ignore jimmyjazz
6/15/2013 9:32:23 AM

Somebody needs to look into decaf. Yeesh.

gmg733
620 posts
msg #114106
Ignore gmg733
6/15/2013 10:01:16 AM

Hehe. Blah blah blah. Hey look at me, I took someone's work and I'm making money, but your an idiot. Too funny. All from a guy who shared absolutely nothing on the forum. Best of luck to Dan.

Kevin_in_GA
4,548 posts
msg #114107
Ignore Kevin_in_GA
modified
6/15/2013 10:11:29 AM

I think this guy simply doesn't understand how to provide constructive feedback (hint: it doesn't start off with calling folks stupid).

As to my decision to exit in May (I'm still in a Stable Value fund this month as well), my unrealized gain is only about 1.5% versus taking the system trades mechanically. The current call is IWM and the month is only half over, so by the end of the month either I am better off or worse. Either way it's my call and my money.

If you are making money using a variant of this, good for you and good luck in the future. This approach will help people succeed even if they don't follow it religiously.

jimmyjazz
99 posts
msg #114124
Ignore jimmyjazz
6/17/2013 3:09:31 PM

Kevin, are you familiar with the Cambria TAA ETF (GTAA)? It hasn't exactly set the world on fire (save ~ 2.5% annual dividend yield) since inception. Any idea why?

StockFetcher Forums · Filter Exchange · PORTFOLIO SELECTION AND MANAGEMENT USING RISK/REWARD RATIOS<< 1 ... 43 44 45 46 47 ... 65 >>Post Follow-up

*** Disclaimer *** StockFetcher.com does not endorse or suggest any of the securities which are returned in any of the searches or filters. They are provided purely for informational and research purposes. StockFetcher.com does not recommend particular securities. StockFetcher.com, Vestyl Software, L.L.C. and involved content providers shall not be liable for any errors or delays in the content, or for any actions taken based on the content.


Copyright 2016 - Vestyl Software L.L.C.Terms of Service | License | Questions or comments? Contact Us
EOD Data sources: DDFPlus & CSI Data Quotes delayed during active market hours. Delay times are at least 15 mins for NASDAQ, 20 mins for NYSE and Amex. Delayed intraday data provided by DDFPlus