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31 posts
msg #26821
Ignore todddunning
6/11/2003 2:39:45 PM

Hey Muddy let me add my thanks - I'm still struggling with ENI buy from June 5 but assumed I'd have to scrape a few stops before it all gels.

You made a signifigant point June 8 that may have gotten lost in the shuffle; adding optionable stocks to the filter, your theory being the mutuals stayed with them much longer, possibly adding blocks over time. So you tested 41, and 36 went over 40% over time - truly amazing. So I made:


I got MIR, DYN CGO to papertrade June 11. Only CGO opened green but was at least holding midday. So now to jump into your shoes Muddy, the next day, would you filter a new set, or would you see how MIR and DYN open and then move? Or both?

299 posts
msg #26822
Ignore wallman
6/11/2003 4:29:10 PM

HI TODD,you are welcome, first for me CGO would not have been a watch for green open stock as i would have discarded it because it had hardly any tail at all on 6 - 10,plus the fact that in comparison the top shadow was larger than the small tail that it did show,MIR and DYN both did fit and also ironically they both were on my "good list" that i talk about in earlier posts,the way i see it right now the optionable stocks show such large gains (coincidence maybe?)over a few weeks it looks like they would be worth waiting all day for to first show green,then we buy,use whatever criteria you wish to rank them as first to look at,i still like my method of ranking them with price and volume as described in earlier posts,which for me today would have put MIR at a 4 and DYN at a 8 (i only match 10 of the 14)so i would have watched MIR for green first,as for tomorrow if MIR or DYN were still around or under 3% from todays opening price they should still be good picks,as long as they show some green.. if you are going to follow these optionable stocks,since there are not that many,it might be wise to keep a list of maybe 5 - 6 days back and watch for ones that are still failures,just refresh it everyday and drop your 5th or 6th day off,you shouldn't have that many to watch as i can see so far,when you see one finally go green and hold for 5 minutes or so,you could have a very nice run ahead of you,if you come up with anything please post it,this could be a real good addition to the method, thanks ,MUDDY

31 posts
msg #26823
Ignore todddunning
6/11/2003 6:45:01 PM

"...AND STOCK IS OPTIONABLE" checked out today. MIR and DYN closed up 5.1% and 2.7% the first day. Of course there was a big runup today so I will regularly report results on the "optionable" filter 50K vol/back 5 days, as Muddy suggests.

And I have to join others in thanking Muddy for his selflessness and generosity that are almost as impressive as the filter itself...(almost, I said)...!

299 posts
msg #26824
Ignore wallman
6/11/2003 8:22:10 PM

TODD,THANKS,that's pretty funny, the thing that i've noticed just in the past few days with these option matches is they make their big moves in 1 or 2 ticks on very heavy volume,but before and after those moves they trade very quiet,MIR and DYN around 2:30 today and WGRD near the close yesterday and today and failures from yesterday CCK and RSTO again on very heavy volume on a few ticks right around 10 to 10:30 am,you're right about it being a good market day,but i've noticed it with others(sorry,don't remember who)in the last few days also,point being that this buying volume may very well be coming from institutions and mutuals as i doubt it's coming from guys like us,it's too huge,IF this is the case, it's a great thing as i said because of the block buying every few days and the "me too" effect where one mutual fund manager sees another manager getting in a "live" stock and doesn't want to underpreform him,just wants to keep up with him so he buys the stock also regardless whether he really likes it or not,figureing he'll always have a job as long as he doesn't underperform,just stay this could be real good for us,anyway i'm watching very closely,any edge we can get we should take,every edge we get can add up significantly over time .....see ya, MUDDY

31 posts
msg #26825
Ignore todddunning
6/11/2003 9:24:28 PM

This thread has been something for me; probably for the rest of you too. Been thinking of a way to return the favor to Muddy and help ourselves do better; "we" means the readers here:

1. Each night, we are all probably coming up with the exact same BB filter matches, duplicating our work. And then we go off and trade on our own, without oversight or input from others here.
2. Muddy should not do this out of charity. We each have personal logs, research and findings on the method that should be available in one central place for everybody's benefit - including Muddy's.
3. There are many years of collective experience in related skills (TA, money mgt.) on this thread. How can it be centralized to help everyone here?
4. This thread is a great way to discuss Muddy's method in general, but hour-by-hour (or live) group analysis of daily picks and strategy are unavailable.
5. I want to go somewhere nightly (Members only) to post my picks and my reasoning, and see what everybody else is doing and why. And visit again in the morning to make sure we are all pulling the right trigger at the right time.
6. Passwords only to those who contribute actively. New variations of every kind proposed and tested.
7. Muddy in charge.

Anyone feel similiarly?

45 posts
msg #26826
Ignore no4j
6/11/2003 9:50:23 PM

If you guys can figure out the way to get it done, I'll be there and help however I can.
Some sort of chat room?

31 posts
msg #26827
Ignore todddunning
6/11/2003 10:02:58 PM

Thanks no4j. I will email Muddy. todd_dunning("at" sign here)

117 posts
msg #26829
Ignore rrochon
6/12/2003 12:36:44 AM

Some stocks that touch or cross the lower BB keep following it for long periods, and if you play shorts, some keep traveling the upper BB. They might even go green occasionally, but then whipsaw you out and continue on their way.

Seems like it would be a good idea to find channeling stocks that touch or cross the BB a number of times in 6 months, but when I try to add channeling to the filter I get zero stocks.

I have used the stock channeling screens on the home page, but the filters don't show, so I don't know how to add the BB indicators to them.

Any suggestions?


5 posts
msg #26833
Ignore cjbraun
6/12/2003 11:49:56 AM

Hi, Muddy, I'm new to trading stocks but your system has worked well for me. I'm just fine tuning my entry and exit points now. I just wanted to thank you for providing such a simple and effective system that almost anyone can use.

I've been playing around with your filter and came up with a variation that everyone here might be interested in. It provides far fewer matches on a day to day basis, sometimes 4 or 5 days go by without a match, but the results are pretty amazing. I back tested it every day for 50 days and here's what I got:

64 matches total, of those only 3 are in the red as of yesterday.
Average return: 37.97%

Those are just the raw stats, I'm sure you'd get even better results by applying basic criteria like opening green, long tail etc... I haven't traded yet using this filter, but I think I may start, since the numbers look so good.

Anyway, if you or anyone else is interested, here's the filter. It's pretty similar to yours:

SHOW STOCKS where lower bollinger band(20) crossed above lower bollinger band(10) and average volume(90) is above 50,000 and close price has been decreasing over the last 2 days and close price is between 1 and 10 AND stock is optionable and price touched lower bollinger band(20)

Thanks again, Muddy.

- Chris

51 posts
msg #26835
Ignore ig0r
6/12/2003 1:37:14 PM

won't having the 20 day bb cross above the 10 day bb indicate a short term downward trend in bb and in price? maybe try lower bollinger band(10) crossed above lower bollinger band(20) and see if that improves results some more

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