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1,373 posts
msg #29368
Ignore EWZuber
10/20/2003 4:45:05 AM

Thanks for the heads up on those picks.
Looks like AKLM could be good for a very short term move. It closed DMI+ bullish on Friday. So it looks to open higher on Monmday morning. If it breaks resistance at $0.79 then it could be a good play.

VNWK looks like it has a real struggle on its hands. It had heavy volume Friday yet only managed a +2.7% gain and bounced down off resistance at the 25 DMA. I suspect it is not ready yet.

WOLV, need to see a bit more action on this one because of the poor earnings they just reported. A very sharp wedge has formed on hourly chart and the resolution of this should decide the longer term move. Looking to see if it drives it above resistance at the 25 DMA.

GOCM, I like this one. It moved up nicely with little resistance Friday gaining 4%. If it can break $2.57 confirm it as support I suspect it will move much higher. Weekly chart stochastics fast line is converging with the slow line and looks like a longer term accumulation phase may be beginning. Just had good earnings too.

HOFF, Don't like this one. Earnings have been declining for the past 8 quarters and selling volume has greatly surpassed buying volume lately. A lot of short term resistance at $4.01 and the stock closed with bearish +DMI(2) indication while in distribution. Also substantial resistance @ $4.10 ~ $4.15 at the 25 & 50 DMAs.

AMUT, Trading is so light it doesn't trade for hours at a time, makes TA too difficult to be worthwhile.


54 posts
msg #29369
Ignore knowsenough
10/20/2003 9:12:33 AM

EWZuber...thanks for the drill down......
....of those picks. I've just been posting whatever the mod. D.T. scan delivers in case anybody wants to give em a look. Past posted lists have displayed some high % winners.....most recently ICAD. I see a movement in OTC stocks lately and am concentrating efforts on researching those hits from my other scans. Could be a spill over from the huge movements in many micro-caps this year so far.

131 posts
msg #29370
Ignore mika
10/20/2003 11:23:16 AM

I'd be the first to admit I still don't have a elegant "exit strategy" as such. But those numbers are not as arbitrary as they might first appear. I looked at many a chart and indicators, and then did a risk/reward analysis.. I come to the conclusion, given my limited technical knowledge and inexperience, this was really the best tactic to take. I don't like holding a stock for more than a week, because I find psychologically it often changes the mindset. One tends to get complacent or impatient or greedy, or just fall asleep at the wheel. Also, if the stock doesn't perform as you initially expect given a particular setup, chances are it wont in the near future, and it is really a warning sign the market has given you that the position taken was wrong in that particular case/time. Also, I'm not a particularly religious person, and do not have a penchant for prayer or belief in miracles: a 3 day time period is sufficient time to be proven right or wrong.

Z, I really love reading your analysis. But we need to find a way for you to convey these visually!!

131 posts
msg #29374
Ignore mika
10/20/2003 1:41:20 PM

Keep an eye on DSLN.
The stock tanked on heavy inside selling and NASDAQ delisting requirement. It's in the mid 50's now, but it's due for a serious pop. I think this one could yield a 40~50% return. I'd like to see volume to pass the 5-6 mil mark as a positive confirmation. Hopefully, it wont go belly-up beforehand. LOL

1,373 posts
msg #29375
Ignore EWZuber
10/20/2003 2:07:42 PM

I would like to suggest that you seriously look into trendlines for exit points. They are simple yet reliable. Its a good place to start. There is a book called something like, 'How to profit in Bull and Bear markets' by Stan Weinstein.
There are some excellent strategies in this and his use of trendlines is very effective. It takes a little time to get the hang of them as drawing trendlines is more of an art than a science.

I'll check out DSLN after the close. TNX

54 posts
msg #29376
Ignore knowsenough
10/20/2003 3:30:28 PM

Speaking of trendlines.....
I don't subscribe to any trade publications to find stocks, due to the simple belief that anything in print is already old news....but trading wisdom is welcomed in any format. Here is an IBD article note that I saved that may be of relative interest to this discussion....
"A leading stock makes bigger gains than the general market. In some
cases, the gains are a lot bigger.
All rallies eventually take breathers. Corrections of 10% or more by
the major indexes are common. The best stocks also get ahead of
themselves, inviting sharp declines that flush out those who bought
at the wrong time and conceive the forming of new bases. One way to
spot this early is by watching how far a stock rides above its 50-day
or 200-day moving averages.

A market leader hits new highs on robust volume. The stock's moving
average lines slope smoothly higher. But sometimes it suddenly kicks
up 5%, 10% or more over a short time. At this point, the stock gets
higher above its trend line than ever before. The action doesn't
quite fit the profile of a climax run, a reliable sell signal. But
the sudden jump prods institutional investors into selling into the
unusual strength. Combined with a decline in the market, this can
spark the stock's correction phase.
Among 95 of the best small- and
mid-cap stocks, IBD found each stock's maximum close above its 50-day
moving average during the course of its rally from the breakout to
its peak. The average maximum close was 51%. So if a stock's 50-day
line stood at 60 and the stock traded at 91, it was likely near its
If a stock you own rises 51% above its 50-day moving average or more,
be prepared for a correction. If it's 79% higher or more, a decline
is virtually assured. You'll have to decide whether to take your
profit or hold on for even larger gains.
As for the 25 large-cap stocks in the study, or those with a market
value of at least $7 billion, the average maximum above the 50-day
line was much lower. So looking for an unusually high price above the
50-day line won't necessarily help you spot the right time to bag
your gains. As always, keep a list of good sell rules, such as
failure to stay above the 50-day or a decline on the heaviest volume
since its breakout."

1,373 posts
msg #29382
Ignore EWZuber
10/20/2003 4:58:58 PM

A lot of the news in IBD is too old to act on but the real useful information is in the top sectors and top stocks that they highlight every day.
This will keep one informed on which sector the big money is pouring into.
Then using their rating system you can easily find the top 5 stocks in that sector and then wait for a pull back.
When you get the paper you also get access to their website where this information is updated continuously and you can also punch in your stock of interest and see how it stacks up against the best in the sector.
I wouldn't use this system in a bear market but in a bull market where stocks have good upward momentum this paper can pay for itself in short order. JMHO

54 posts
msg #29383
Ignore knowsenough
10/20/2003 5:16:42 PM

Agree on that, as one of the members in my stock club posts those lists and that's where I got the cut/pasted article also. With the list you can drilldown and find some winners occasionally that have not gotten too far ahead of themselves, unlike a Barron's pick...LOL. I just run my scans, work on the new arrivals first, then the stuff I see as repeats and favorites. It's been working out so far. Entry is usually good, my sell side needs work though, but that will improve over time. Don't believe in paper trading. Read Livermore, Weinstein, and Psycholgy of trading over the past couple years and have come to the conclusion that the worst obstacle is me 95% of the time. When I master my own emotions I will do better than the 40% this yr. so far. Also, I feel that going into a trade with the mindset of "what do I stand to lose...vs. what am I going to make"...can save you from poor trade ideas.

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