StockFetcher Forums · General Discussion · BUY ON RED !!!<< 1 2 3 4 >>Post Follow-up
corsino
259 posts
msg #49082
Ignore corsino
1/9/2007 9:29:30 AM

Now that statement should raise a few "conventional wisdom" eyebrows.It probably is one of the untold numbers of "wisdom" nono's.But if most investors (actually we should be called gamblers) are following conventional wisdom advice, that may be the reason that "THEY" say that most people lose money in the stock market.
On the surface, "WAIT FOR GREEN" sounds nice and safe,but it's not as safe as it sounds, nor as profitable.There are SOME conditions under which "BUY ON RED" may be safer and more profitable.
On another thread I've submitted a filter based on continuous "down"days of a stock.It appears that after a stock's price declines a certain number of days, a reversal is imminent.For example,very few stocks decline 13 days in a row.So buying it say after an 11-day decline,is probably buying it close to the bottom. Now,if you buy it the following morning if it shows GREEN, that may be good. But if you buy the ones that show RED at the open of the 12th day, that may be more profitable.
Now that I've totally confused everybody, I'll return to scanning the horizon for appetizing stocks.


wallman
299 posts
msg #49100
Ignore wallman
1/9/2007 11:38:49 PM

"On the surface, "WAIT FOR GREEN" sounds nice and safe,but it's not as safe as it sounds, nor as profitable."

HUH?
Find me 2 up from red stocks like these ,FMDAD(119% since green Monday) GOAM(41% in couple hours) "go green" stocks in the last 2 days.
Not to mention 3 huge gains on MEMY in a few hours 3 straight days after going green
And all 3 of them were already on my watchlist so it's not like I just picked them out of the air.
In fact all 3 were alerted VERY early green in live chat.
Don't get me wrong,you can make $$ buying on red work,like you said ,under the right conditions.
But I say NEVER EVER close to as much as waiting for green.

I saw a fellow asking on a thread does anybody really make 100% a year?
HUH? to that also.

Tuesday, January 9, 2007
THE POWER OF HODS,VOLUME .....

The 10/60 cross,going green,knowing some favorite stocks,even dollar mark crosses,SIMPLE stuff like that.
This from yesterdays chat:

(12:57) Muddy: Elle,FMDAD finally green 1.69

(13:22) Muddy: FMDAD just crossed 10/60 1.8

If you look at a chart you'll see the volume spikes coming in there.

Then today:

(Jan 09-12:03) Muddy: we mentioned FMDAD yest,steady up near 2 now

(Jan 09-12:03) Muddy: old symbol FMDAY

(Jan 09-12:06) Muddy: just popped over 2

From there it went an unreal hod 3.70 !

And from yesterdays:

(11:26) Muddy: GOAM 7.5 ( i know this stock very well over the years as a potential bigtime runner with vol spikes,it had just gone green at 7.35,off lod EVEN 7)

(11:27) Muddy: to 8 (in a minute!)

(12:09) Muddy: GOAM 8 cross (there's the even mark cross)

(12:49) Muddy: do you see GOAM 10/60 cross today (the cross came at 7.70 and with a volume spike to boot!)

(13:00) Elle: yeah, GOAM is great runner (few times a year!)

(13:00) Muddy: yes sure is (and we KNOW this stock)

(13:23) Muddy: Elle,GOAM looks coiled

(13:24) Muddy: bid/ask flipping (watching price action)

It closed at 10.30

These kind are not rare at all,in fact if you go to Mondays log you'll see FMDAD and GOAM we are talking about them running at the SAME time of day!

Check out Thursdays, ,Fridays and Mondays log for MEMY.

This stock gave big profits on 3 straight days from SIMPLE STUFF

Posted by Muddy at 9:37 PM


wallman
299 posts
msg #49101
Ignore wallman
1/10/2007 12:03:12 AM

Oh and :

"But if most investors (actually we should be called gamblers) are following conventional wisdom advice, that may be the reason that "THEY" say that most people lose money in the stock market."

My opinion is because they OUT THINK their selves.
I see new folks trading stuff they have no idea what the indicators or filters are even about,the running before you learn to walk syndrome.
Plus the folks that have so many filters and indicators they don't know where to turn next.
Trading is about psychology,use it to your advantage.
You ask the best traders here on the forums,I bet they keep it as simple as they can.



corsino
259 posts
msg #49102
Ignore corsino
1/10/2007 12:28:38 AM

Hi Wallman
Never say never.
Take for instance today. CBRX had declined for 7 continuous days, opened on green and was green for a good part of the day. If one had bought it when it went green, he would have ended the day losing over 2%, because he would have gotten whipsawed.Sure, a nimble daytrader could have probably have gotten out before it went red again, but how about someone that's not glued to the screen?
But someone can find plenty of examples of whatever they want to "prove".

But actually, I was playing contrarian to see what kind of comments it'd get.All I was saying was that on a deeply oversold stock, the longer you can wait and buy at a lower price,the less a chance of getting whipsawed and the better chance of eventually obtaining a gain. For instance,buying stocks that have dropped 11 days,results in a better W/L ratio than buying stocks buying stocks that have dropped only 7 days in a row, at least generally.
But never say always either.


corsino
259 posts
msg #49103
Ignore corsino
1/10/2007 12:48:30 AM

Wallman
As for your statement that the best traders keep it simple, that's hard to tell from this forum. I have no idea who are the best traders, but I do see a lot more long, complicated filters than simple ones. But maybe they don't actually trade their filters.


TheRumpledOne
6,358 posts
msg #49105
Ignore TheRumpledOne
modified
1/10/2007 2:07:54 AM

corsino:

Do NOT confuse complicated with long.

My display filters may be long and look complicated but they are actually simple filters. My selection criteria is usually very simple... price range, volume and something like rsi(2) below 1. All the rest are just display columns that "read" the chart for me.

I program the filters to count certain occurences. Working within the confines of SF filter language is cumbersome at times and that can make it look complicated.

And sometimes I just write filters to see if I can. Keeps my programming skills sharp. And sometimes I write filters just to help others.

I have probably written a dozen filters based on rsi(2) below 1.

But, as you know, IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!







bielyplafon
42 posts
msg #49106
Ignore bielyplafon
1/10/2007 4:04:34 AM

Muddy,
I try to follow a lot of your lessons and follow your favorite list posted in yahoo forum but I didn't see GOAM and FMDAD(FMDAY) on it. I found only MEMY.

How did you come to them. Hmm.... past experience with them. Don't even reply if this is the case. I simply don't have your experience unfortunatelly :o(( so I can't find them following what so ever (except of chat log).

Thank you for all.
Regards
ra


maxxam80
108 posts
msg #49107
Ignore maxxam80
1/10/2007 5:55:49 AM

this is the bases for the TD sequential indicator


wallman
299 posts
msg #49108
Ignore wallman
1/10/2007 6:54:43 AM

Hi bielyplafon,

In the case of FMDAD,it was a symbol change a few days ago,from low vol FMDAY.
I always try to follow symbol changes for at least a week because often news occurs during this time.
Look at CPSL which went from 5.45 to 13.73 in the first day it traded after changing from symbol OLAB.

I have followed GOAM a very long time as I know it tends to run hard and fast on big volume spikes.
The reason it's not included on my "favs" list is because it is only a 150k 3 month average vol stock.
Since i already have 100 stocks on my favs list in the file I felt I had to limit the list to higher average volume stocks.
Actually I would have had to add about 200 or more stocks to the file list that I have in my head that I know run big with volume % increases.


bielyplafon
42 posts
msg #49109
Ignore bielyplafon
1/10/2007 7:13:03 AM

Muddy,
when are you sleeping? Comparing time of your last two posts...

thank you
ra



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