StockFetcher Forums · General Discussion · Do your DD<< 1 2 3 4 >>Post Follow-up
JoeGrossinger
165 posts
msg #29125
Ignore JoeGrossinger
10/7/2003 10:04:21 AM

The stock has been going down since 8/15! What does it take Zuber?
It has not shown the slightest effort to go up. TWO mini crashes in the past month and a half, with a serious down draft in the past 3 or 4 days and you want to tell me it was a great chart.
OK, if you say so. According to the chart insiders have known for a month now that bad news was ahead. RSI(15) has been declining since 15 September, and the MACD was seriously bearish.
It's OK by me if you consider this kind of chart bullish, but I would never have touched it. It was declining and has not shown a bottom formation to signal a turn. End of story.


EWZuber
1,373 posts
msg #29132
Ignore EWZuber
10/7/2003 2:52:53 PM

Is that what a downtrend is? A stock that is going down?
For how long?
Is it a downtrend if it is going down for an hour, a day, a week a month 2 months?
Yes IF in your time period the stock makes both lower cycle highs and lower cycle lows.

Was the MACD 'seriously bearish' on 5/6/03 & 8/18/03 when the trendline was tested. Sure it was. Because MACD is a lagging indicator. The trendline held those days anyhow.
To assert that this latest selling was related to insider knowlege seems to be after the fact wisdom.

What do you suppose insiders knew when the stock hit $4.13 back on 4/19?
Maybe they knew that the next 5 quarters were going to be an improvement and that 4 of those quarters would be profitible so they sold the stock.

Because it was dropping precipitously for about 6 months from 4/2002 to 10/2002 you wouldn't have touched it even though on 10/15/02 LOOK broke a 5 month resistance trendline and Monthly, Weekly and Daily chart Stochastics were oversold and crossing over and Quarterly was rising?
Notice there were other runs the stock made to test resistance but none broke the trendline until 10/15.

The decline is in the past.
The new uptrend is in the present/future.
What is going to be foremnost in your mind, the past or the future.
The markets are forward looking.

The next cycle high formed on 1/28/03 hit $3.52, quite a bit short of the previous high at $4.13. So is LOOK still in a downtrend, No, because the cycle lows are higher.
This is proven out with the following cycle where we have not only a higher low but a higher high as well.
This is basic investing TA.
Following trendlines.
At the bottom of this cycle on 5/6/03 the stock made a huge gap down on earnings.
But notice that the investor that bought at the break of trendline resistance back on 10/15/02 is still in the money. Why? Because the lows are getting higher. There is an uptrend in place even though the cycle highs were not successively higher.
Since we are trying to make money this is significant.
That uptrend is in place until the trendline is broken ( today ).
Basically what you are saying is that you do not recognize trendlines as support or as a trading tool.
But the fact that LOOK had tested this trendline 11 times over the past 12 months and it held as support every time is significant to me and apparently to a lot of other investors and traders that bought stock each time the trendline was tested. Thats why it held as support.
Take a look at these points on the chart you might find it interesting.
After that let me know if you think that these thing are insignificant and if so why?





JoeGrossinger
165 posts
msg #29133
Ignore JoeGrossinger
10/7/2003 3:13:29 PM

3 days in a direction is considered a trend.

John J. Murphy Technical Analysis of the Futures Markets

Robert D. Edwards and John Magee Technical Analysis of Stock TRENDS

You can buy them on Amazon.com

DOWN 37% in about two months and you can't recognize that as a down trend?
If you can't recognize a trend, don't buy stocks.

"Was the MACD 'seriously bearish' on 5/6/03 & 8/18/03"

The MACD turned seriously bearish on 22 August. Plenty of warning. More than plenty. Bet you can't spend the money LOOK sold for on 5/6/03 and nobody cares either.

What do I care about 4/19? What do you care? Can you SPEND the price it was on at 4/19?
Why do you ignore the minicrashes on 17-18 Aug, 25 Sept and 11 August.
Why do you ignore the recent data and keep quoting old data?
What? Do you think folks buy stocks on last year's price data?
Maybe you, but not folks that know what they are doing.

LOOK took a 37% haircut RECENTLY NOT LAST YEAR from it's high of 4.80 at the end of July and yesterday.
If you can't recognize that as a DOWNTREND then get out of the market!!!
Get out and save your money!!!
Sheesh. What does it take with you?

"Because it was dropping precipitously for about 6 months from 4/2002 to 10/2002 you wouldn't have touched it even though on 10/15/02 LOOK broke a 5 month resistance trendline and Monthly, Weekly and Daily chart Stochastics were oversold and crossing over and Quarterly was rising?

LOL! This is pathetic! I am talking NOW and you are talking a year ago.
NOW. NOW. NOW.
What is wrong with you? NOW! Not a year ago.
What? Don't you look at RECENT DATA?
NOW!!!!! Not a year ago.
DOWN 37% in about two months and you can't recognize that as a down trend?

Do yourself a favor and get out of the market. You can't recognize a RECENT downtrend lasting over 40 trading days and that tells it all.





mika
131 posts
msg #29134
Ignore mika
10/7/2003 5:38:04 PM

Sorry to interject with all the joviality flying round, but MSNBC had LOOK on its ticker. If ever there was a SELL indicator one would follow that would be it. :(


jthehut
124 posts
msg #29135
Ignore jthehut
10/7/2003 5:40:18 PM

JOE:
STOP RUBBING IT IN!!!!!!!!!

Let's concentrate on the present/future for our colleague. Yes, let's learn from past "mistakes", but for f- sakes, let's constructively help this guy, not put him down!

Come on Joe, you're better than this!!!
M aka jthehut


JoeGrossinger
165 posts
msg #29136
Ignore JoeGrossinger
10/7/2003 6:03:08 PM

Dear Zub, I'm sorry I tried to point out the fact that you had no reason to buy that stock according to any kind of TA.

It's my fault.
You did great! Good job riding it down. Wonderful.

There, everybody feel better now?

Letting a guy sit there in total De Nile is not my idea of helping out and letting him make one excuse afer another is not my idea of being educational.
The market is brutal, if you can't take that, GET OUT and buy some CDs.
The stock market is a cold, cruel environment that does not suffer fools.


mika
131 posts
msg #29137
Ignore mika
10/7/2003 6:29:05 PM

CooKooReeKoo :P




JoeGrossinger
165 posts
msg #29138
Ignore JoeGrossinger
10/7/2003 6:50:16 PM

It is my belief that 95% of all disasters such as LOOK are fortold in the charts. Certainly that was the case with LOOK.

We all know and believe that 95% of all huge gainers are fortold in the charts, so the reverse is just as true.

I'm going to start a Disaster Disection thread on Koliga.com, probably tomorrow to show that folks need not get caught up in one of these wealth destroyers.

The title of this thread is "Do your DD" and that is certainly appropos.

You gain no knowledge bragging about your winners.
Every fool has a few of those.
You gain maximum knowledge from your losers if you are a person of character and can stare into the fiasco you created and are responsible for.
Disecting those and seeing where the error lies, and what should have been done is not only educational but also profitable.
You folks that want to coo sweet nothings towards Zub need to keep in mind that the market is absolutely cold. It has no remorse, it has no guilt, it has no pity. It only takes money and grants no do-overs.
If you can't live in that environment then get out before you lose your stash.
It's as simple as that.
If you are not going to be on your guard, on total alert, always paranoid then get out of the market.
It's about money.
If you can't remain totally paranoid and be a champ of a cynic, if you think Mommy and Daddy will take care of you, give you a blanky and make things right then get out of the market before you lose your stash.
The job of the market is to take as much money as possible from as many as possible and hand it over to the few who can make money in it.
If that is too cruel for you - get out before you lose it all.
There are no do-overs in the market. You make money and you lose money.
You had better know why in each case.
Koliga.Com


EWZuber
1,373 posts
msg #29139
Ignore EWZuber
10/7/2003 6:55:46 PM

Joe, don't have a hemorrhage.
You just don't want to address the points I have made because you can't so you attempt to dismiss them as irrelevant and resort to personal attacks to divert attention from the facts of the discussion. I have found that to be a predominate strategy on stock boards.

You completely avoided my question about the long term trendline on the LOOK chart.
I brought these charts to your attention because they prove your assertions are not true. Did you even look at them? Its what is called a precedent. That is how TA is validated, by precedent.
The references I made to the MACD on 5/6/03 & 8/18/03 were for the sake of precedent not as a real time indicator meant to support taking a position in the present. In other words the MACD values were nearly identical to those that you assert are bearish. Yet the stock tested the trendline under those conditions in the past and support was confirmed again and again. I submit that this is proof that the MACD conditions that you speak of were not decidedly bearish as you assert.
The reference I made to the downtrend starting on 4/19/02 was for the sake of precedent.
I was simply validating my assertions about uptrends and downtrends and offering examples. Maybe it would not have confused you had I used a different stock.

To prevent further confusion take a look at a 1 year chart of IBM.
Here we have a trendline that starts on the low of 1/19/02, 2/13/02, 3/12/03 & 8/6/03.
During the cycle of 3/12/03 to 4/14/03 the stock did not exceed the past cycle highs, but notice the lows were not below the past cycle lows.
Did the stock go on to continue its long term uptrend, yes.
Was the trendline violated? No.
Were any of the times that the trendline tested as support a valid entry point? yes.
These are the aspects that I brought to the LOOK trade and I assert that these findings validated the position I took at that time.

Had ANYTHING happened to that stock EXCEPT a bad news announcement after the bell, then the position could have been closed with a very small loss on any break of trendline support.
That is all one can do. No one could have predicted a gap down the next morning.
The way I see it the ONLY strategy that could have saved the trade is to buy protective Puts against the long position.

So if 3 days in a direction is a trend should an investor get out of his stock because it has been dropping for 3 days?
No, that definition is intended to alert the short term trader that trends can be established with as little as 3 points of connection.

Let me reiterate from my last post my definition of an uptrend/downtrend, "Is it a downtrend if it is going down for an hour, a day, a week a month 2 months?
Yes IF in your time period the stock makes both lower cycle highs and lower cycle lows."
What that says is that it doesn't take even one day to have a downtrend if you are trading 5 minute charts.
Your definition shows the authors bias towards short term daily charts and because of that I submit is not completely accurate.
But what is more important to this discussion I think is that the 'downtrend' that you refer to is irrelevant to taking a position at trendline support.
I can support that with data if you like.

If you wait for a trend reversal on a bounce up off of a trendline before taking a position then you may just have to sit and watch your stock drop back down to that trendline support and test it again. Since your position was taken after the trend had seemingly reversed you now have several percent of unrealized losses to hold before you know if the trendline will hold as support this time.
If it doesn't then you may have 10% of losses compared to maybe 2 or 3% if the position was taken right near support.

Also I would note that LOOK showed gains yesterday bouncing up off of trendline support. It did not start a new trend on daily charts though as that would have meant a break above about $3.10.
Lets say it did, would the management have then not announced the loss of the contract?
Would the 4 cents in stock price made that much difference.

So does your definition of a trend mean that you wait for your stocks to go up for 3 days before you buy them so they'll be in an uptrend?
How do you deal with that?

Here is some reference to help you see what I am talking about.
http://www.equis.com/Education/TAAZ/?page=113

If you take this information to the LOOK chart you will see that it fits perfectly with what I have said and further validates my position.

The personal attacks are usually a last resort to saving face.
Telling me 'this is pathetic' insulting my intelligence.
Telling me, "If you can't recognize that as a DOWNTREND then get out of the market!!!"
Sounds pretty authoritative.
So now you're trying to tell me what to do. This is so typical.
Kinda makes you feel like you're in the drivers seat eh?
All thats missing now is 'moron' and 'idiot'. A couple stock board favorites right up there with 'pathetic'.

There's no need for that kind of emotional outbursts.
This can be dealt with as a topic for discussion and no ego is needed to interfere.
You said, "Sheesh. What does it take with you?"
Not much, just an adult discussion with detailed responses to my position.
I will be glad to reply with detailed responses to your position.
No generalities or vauge assertions.
As far as I'm concerned it's not about winning or losing the discussion, I can take that in stride, it's about learning and challenging my belief system regarding trading. I don't care how it makes me look.
If I'm wrong and can not defend my position then I need to re-evaluate.



EWZuber
1,373 posts
msg #29140
Ignore EWZuber
10/7/2003 7:01:12 PM

mika
Interesting.
Exactly what do you see that makes you think that the 1 year trendline support was going to break this time?
TIA


StockFetcher Forums · General Discussion · Do your DD<< 1 2 3 4 >>Post Follow-up

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