StockFetcher Forums · General Discussion · Have we truly bottomed?<< 1 ... 6 7 8 9 10 >>Post Follow-up
nikoschopen
2,824 posts
msg #60865
Ignore nikoschopen
3/29/2008 12:53:50 AM

As a daytrader who flips trades faster than you would normally flip a burger, I'm not sure how this article is relevant to my trading. Most of the things touted as no-brainer fallacies in the article are mainly an academic exercise that rarely ever translates well in reality. Call me an idiot, but when I see my favorite angus beef soar in price by threefold, I call that inflationary. Moreover, when I see a bunch of morons at the Federal Reserve cutting rates even when people favor dinero over dollar and the U.S. Treasury is running a massive deficit while the national GDP is backpedaling, I call that flat out stupid. What more is there to know?

petrolpeter
439 posts
msg #60866
Ignore petrolpeter
3/29/2008 1:27:12 AM

And the real stupidity is dragging millions of people into what was isolated bank's credit problems a couple of months ago into stagflation where your tripled price burger and fuel to get there may have kept you from making that trip to JC Penney.Which is happening to a quite a few folk according to them.This type of thing leads to a lot of shorts NIKO

rtucker
318 posts
msg #60867
Ignore rtucker
modified
3/29/2008 1:44:16 AM

Well said. I'm a firm advocate of KIS.

Have we truly bottommed?

Holding tenuous positions (not a WHOLE lot of wiggle room) over
the weekend in SRS and QID we will see if the market will cheer or fear
the Paulson plan on Monday.

It is end of quarter window dressing day Monday.

I am biased but I cant find a scrap of what should be considered "good news" on Monday. But its early. I'm sure some will be fabricated.

Low volume SPY and QQQQ. Might be "dont sell a quiet market" but
sentiment indicators are still very bullish (short term) and I think this is/was a bull trap.

My guess is maybe one day up then COMP down hard when we get to Googles stink-out on Tuesday. However, dont short a Tuesday seems to be the rule lately. Whatcha think?



nikoschopen
2,824 posts
msg #60869
Ignore nikoschopen
3/29/2008 2:32:16 AM

This type of thing leads to a lot of shorts NIKO

Or was that really a Freudian slip where it should be read as "This type of thing leads to a lot of shorts like NIKO

;^)

nikoschopen
2,824 posts
msg #60870
Ignore nikoschopen
3/29/2008 2:36:51 AM

Hey tuck,

You might want to incorporate this ageless, albeit useless, maxim into ure KISS principle: The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent..

Don't try to second-guess where the market will be. Just go with the flow. Some Sobering thought for sure. lol

Cheers!

rtucker
318 posts
msg #60871
Ignore rtucker
3/29/2008 3:19:09 AM

Thats exactly what I'm doing ...... just going with the flow.... that is of course if the flow is down.... If it changes then I'll step aside... I have neither crystal or brass balls.... and for that matter I've had two wives who remained irrational far, far longer than I remained solvent..


Cheers. Better get some sleep here...

zeezeetop
30 posts
msg #60873
Ignore zeezeetop
3/29/2008 8:14:54 AM

Soothing thoughts for the morning.

Headlines on MSN:

Bush proposes financial regulation overhaul
Plan would expand powers of Federal Reserve

Mana from heaven, now GS, MER BSC et al will become fed subsidized permanetly...I mean regulated. Talk about Wall Street on Welfare.

The market will never bottom if these goobers keep pulling stunts like this. Somebody needs to take Berwanker and Paulbearer's crystal and brass balls away. Where's Kudlow when you need him (ie free market capitalism)?

I did some research on the early days of stock markets. The reason the US flourished and England lagged was regulation. The US had little or no rules and London had more than it could stand. One grew siginficantly and the other didn't. The US became a super power because of free market capitalism.

By the way, the largest portion of foreign capital in the US market is British, so you know where the Brits put their money years ago. Where is money moving now?

Quit making new rules and enforce the ones you have. The SEC should consider going after the guys at the brokerage houses who commited fraud and other heinous acts against investors. FINRA also should step in and straighten out their rats nest and spend more money on enforcement instead of advertising.



petrolpeter
439 posts
msg #60877
Ignore petrolpeter
3/29/2008 1:29:01 PM

Yea Niko,Earnings Season short.I think this is going to be a roller coaster ride in the Rockies without rails under the carLOL.

Heres another look at a simple 'short sell the rate cut rally' filter,if stocks actually get that high for 3 days ago:
Fetcher[slow stochastic(5,5) %K is above 80 and close is above 10 and volume is above 800000 and offset 3/25/2008]

some beauties.

Have we truly bottomed?I always thought interests rates are raised slightly in an up economy.This wild slashing is severe attempts at damage control and nothing more.I'm afraid Paulson's plans to fix everything runs in the same vein as his "STRONG DOLLAR POLICY" and that man should really step away from the gambling tables.

Is JC Penney and other retails going to lay off?All those airlines consolidating flights and grounding planes to save money on fuel,whats with those employees?Are they laid off?Is unemployment(which we have seen a little of and/or possibly the beginning of) going to be the next theme of paulson and bernanke?Those two cowboys chasing the bad guys down the trail riding backward in saddles yelling" we can see em but we just can't get em"LOL

nikoschopen
2,824 posts
msg #60878
Ignore nikoschopen
3/29/2008 1:52:59 PM

There's no question that the current crisis is rooted in the overcooked stimulus package of Alan Greenspan. The real question is how the hell are you gonna fix it? Through more regulations? Here's what one angry poster child stated over at Elitetrader:
These idiotic regulations always appear only after the bubble bursts. Remember all the useless regulations that were created after the tech bubble? These government hacks are always one step too late. Why the hell didn't they do anything when the Dow was screaming out of control at 14,000? Spineless Jackasses!

And mark my words: This fiscal quarter will mark the last profitable quarter for any company to squeak by without triggering an alert from not only the government regulators but also from the fearful investors. That's only understandable since most of these companies got away with cooking up the numbers anyway. But no more. We're in a panic mode!

zeezeetop
30 posts
msg #60879
Ignore zeezeetop
3/29/2008 3:28:25 PM

Nothing like the smell of Napalm in the morning, or something like that.

All good points. I heard a commentary the other day and it's premise was: What if the average US resident altered their habits and became savers instead of consumers? Would world consumption absorb the manufacturing capacity available? Probably not.

If Dave Ramsey et al gain any more viewers and listeners then things could really turn down in the global market since they advocate paying off debt. Since we won't have many manufacturing jobs to loose, the US could actually prosper in such an environment.

As an example, the housing down turn had minimal effect on the US economy this time around since many of the workers were illegal aliens sending money back to Mexico propping up their econmony. That's why Western Union did so well before the downturn. Most of the effect here is the US was excess new housing inventory and the subprime mess.

How are we in a recession if 95% of the workforce is employed? The little guys are getting squeezed becasue the dollar is so low with Paulson's STRONG DOLLAR POLICY that oil and food are through the roof. Strengthen the dollar and those prices should come down and Joe Average will again have cash to shop at JC Pennys, Nordstrum, Target and Walmart.

A recovery may be possible in such an environment creating a bottom and turn around. Here, here for a strong dollar. Would someone explain that to the Fed?

StockFetcher Forums · General Discussion · Have we truly bottomed?<< 1 ... 6 7 8 9 10 >>Post Follow-up

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