StockFetcher Forums · General Discussion · Just a Heads Up lV<< 1 ... 10 11 12 13 14 ... 41 >>Post Follow-up
dbyrt
70 posts
msg #58543
Ignore dbyrt
modified
12/26/2007 7:44:20 PM

EWZuber, thanks for posting the graphs and your suggestions.

I can see from your previous posts, that you really are a firm believer in the technical analysis 'squgglies'. I really have my doubts to be honest.

you say: " It is telling me there were a lot of sellers today"
how do you know there were a lot of sellers today? Weird. Don't know how you can possibly know that?
and, how do you know it's an accumulation phase?

If by accumulation, you mean the price is going up as people want to get into the stock, I agree. If the stock is going down, people want to get out of it. e.g., the price is moving down, I agree. There's no more to it than that. e.g., its still moving averages of the price.

Stochastic are only moving averages too.......just taking a different price point.

As for doji's, all the looking back I've ever done, I've noticed that there are as many examples of a stock going either way following a doji.

EWZuber
1,373 posts
msg #58549
Ignore EWZuber
12/27/2007 12:21:16 AM

dbyrt, absolutely. Just looked at my account and it's up 10% in December using those squiggly lines. There's no doubt in my mind.

Its very easy to tell how much selling there is.
The reason I say that there were a lot of sellers today is because todays gains were not due to natural price growth that is driven by buying at the ask but rather by a gap formed by a big money player(s) (which includes market makers).
The volume was high. So if the volume was high but the stock closed basically where it opened then that tells me that there were a lot of sellers. If there were not a lot of sellers the stock would have continued higher and formed a bullish candlestick body above the gap. Basically, if there wasn't the gap the stock would have gone nowhere.

Also if you break it down on a 5 minute chart you can see the first two volume bars were heavy buying which was totally negated by heavy selling that followed.

"...how do you know it's an accumulation phase?.."
An accumulation phase technically begins when the stochastic fast line crosses above the slow line and there is a violation of pattern resistance.
These two things also comprise a basic buy signal for me.
Accumulation occurs when the trades primarily occur on the 'ask' side. When the lowest ask is bought out by traders accumulating the stock then the next lowest ask price is higher than the last and when it gets taken out as well the price rises as traders accumulate the stock at the ask.
When the trade takes place primarily on the bid side, then it is done by sellers wanting to get rid of their stock so they sell it to the highest bidder. When the highest bid is taken out then the next highest bid is lower then the last and when it gets taken out then the price falls as traders distribute their shares.

"...As for doji's, all the looking back I've ever done, I've noticed that there are as many examples of a stock going either way following a doji...."

All Doji's are not the same. A Doji on high volume when the cycle is heavily overbought is a good set up for an Evening Star pattern.
We'll likely see tomorrow when the 10 HR.MA is tested as support if this is going to be an Evening Star pattern.









EWZuber
1,373 posts
msg #58560
Ignore EWZuber
12/27/2007 12:00:03 PM

dbyrt, SOLF broke support at its 10 HR.MA as expected and looks like it is forming an Evening Star pattern on the Daily Chart.

EWZuber
1,373 posts
msg #58561
Ignore EWZuber
12/27/2007 12:07:19 PM

miketranz, I agree with you there. Trade where the big moves are. Alternative energy has definately been the hot spot and has a lot of lower priced stocks to play with.
Financials were good this year too, like MA and GS but too expensive for me.

EWZuber
1,373 posts
msg #58567
Ignore EWZuber
12/27/2007 4:12:22 PM

Evening Star pattern confirmed for SOLF at the close but not as bearish as it could be. Held on to its 25 HR.MA as support but just barely and it looks like the HC distribution phase is not complete.
10 & 15 HR.MA's confirmed as resistance.
Tried to short this one today but there were no shares available.
May be a good short tomorrow. Expecting to see it drop to it's 50 HR.MA at $29.38 (& rising)
IMO

dbyrt
70 posts
msg #58568
Ignore dbyrt
modified
12/27/2007 4:18:21 PM

Great trading long on this one today. Big movement up from mid 32 to near 35, went above its open at one point. (9% rise) from the low.

EWZuber
1,373 posts
msg #58572
Ignore EWZuber
12/28/2007 4:48:43 AM

Ran across a great example of what a high volume Doji in an overbought condition will do.
Look at a 5 year chart for UCBI. Then zero in on 3/09/07.

EWZuber
1,373 posts
msg #58615
Ignore EWZuber
12/30/2007 10:16:10 AM

Something occurred to me during this latest Daily Chart distribution phase.
Watching the COMP on the Hourly and 5 Minute Chart I could see it bounce at the major moving averages. First the 10 DMA then the 15 DMA so far.
It occurred to me that this is like pumping the brakes on a big rig.
It is intended to slow down the momentum so that support can hold at a lower level rather than letting it drop and try to stop it cold at the desired point.
If the 15 DMA doesn't hold then I am quite certain at this point that the 25 DMA will.
Friday closed with the Hourly Chart pattern support intact.
IMO


EWZuber
1,373 posts
msg #58616
Ignore EWZuber
12/30/2007 10:32:09 AM

XSNX testing it's 50 MO.MA as resistance and LT charts indicate this will be broken and result in LT upside to at least ~$2.
IMO

fokane
74 posts
msg #58629
Ignore fokane
12/31/2007 10:07:25 AM

SRCL looks like a good one to buy at the 50 MA, if it gets there.



StockFetcher Forums · General Discussion · Just a Heads Up lV<< 1 ... 10 11 12 13 14 ... 41 >>Post Follow-up

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