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EWZuber
1,373 posts
msg #30913
Ignore EWZuber
1/30/2004 4:22:59 PM

NASDAQ is forming a base now looks like maybe a wedge pattern is forming on intraday charts.
Its managed to break the 15 HR.MA this last hour.
Trendline resistance is at 2074 & falling. This is the one that is most important to me, short term.
Semis (SOX ) and Gold Stocks ( XAU & HUI ) pulled the index up today.
Gold stocks are very oversold on Weekly chart so this was expected soon.
Semis though are still overbought on weekly chart but are trying to hold support at the 15 WK. MA @ 512. This is usually very bearish for an index to be testing support while just starting a distribution phase.
Defence stocks ( DFI) are in accumulation on Weekly chart but is in distribution on Daily chart. When this daily chart cycle has bottomed I would be looking for some gains in that sector ( within a few days ).

Most of the indexes are overbought on Weekly charts and have just started distribution. A flurry of excellent earnings could mitigate the distribution phase. Other than that it looks like they are headed lower over the next several weeks.
So far I've charted GIN, GSO, IXCO, IXF, RLX, SOX, TRAN, XAL all -xover on Weekly.
What we need to see, IMO, before the NASDAQ is ready to take on 3000, is the weekly chart stochastics to be oversold and +xover while testing support on most all the indexes at ( at least ) their 15 Week MAs.

If you look back at historical charts you will see that this is the scenario that existed before each of the big moves we have seen since Oct. 2002.
If you look at the bull market of the 1990s you'll see that before each big move higher the Weekly chart stochastics became oversold while NASDAQ dropped to test the 50 Week MA. Smaller moves higher it tested the 25 Week MA. as support first.
It appears there is a correlation there.
I suspect that the weak hands will need to be purged before a major move can occur.
I suspect we will see a bounce soon but it will not be the next move higher. It will be more of a move to test and confirm resistance.
JMHO



EWZuber
1,373 posts
msg #30926
Ignore EWZuber
2/1/2004 10:39:25 PM

NAVR looking very good, IMO. Testing TL Support while oversold on Daily chart. It has formed a wedge pattern on the 30 min. chart with TL Resistance at $6.19 & falling.
EMA is shaping up but I suspect not quite ready. Maybe with a few more hours on the 30 min. chart.
JMHO


wallman
299 posts
msg #30928
Ignore wallman
2/1/2004 11:29:22 PM

ZUB,any thoughts on IECE ? looks ready to pop imo


jthehut
124 posts
msg #30929
Ignore jthehut
2/2/2004 12:22:57 AM

not very liquid?


EWZuber
1,373 posts
msg #30935
Ignore EWZuber
2/2/2004 10:22:55 AM

NASDAQ just hit up against TL Resistance @ 2074 and bounced down, confirming it as resistance for now.
What is quite short term bearish about this is that the hourly chart Stochastics were not overbought at the time. JMHO


EWZuber
1,373 posts
msg #30938
Ignore EWZuber
2/2/2004 11:01:17 AM

wallman
I agree with jthehut about liquidity. Some days only 2K shares traded. Technically, IMO, the stock is forming a bearish wedge pattern on intraday charts. ( Bearish because it is at the bottom of a downtrend ).
It is testing the 200 DMA as well as a 10 Month Supporting TL.
It tried to gap up this morning above the short term TL Resistance of the wedge but has sold off to test the old resistance as support. Problem is that the top of a wedge is angled down and this does not serve well as usable support.
I don't really like this set up also because it is already a bit overbought on Hourly charts and the odds don't seem to be that favorable for a good move higher. I would have to wait and see how this developes a bit but, IMO, there are more compelling positions out there.
This one has dropped hard on big volume on bad earnings, another bearish indication. JMHO


EWZuber
1,373 posts
msg #30940
Ignore EWZuber
2/2/2004 12:12:16 PM

In NAVR @ $6.16.
Didn't get the entry at $6.10 so this will have to do.

NASDAQ broke TL res. and now is testing intraday high as resistance @ 2077.
Since it hit this high while oversold the odds are good for a break higher. JMHO


EWZuber
1,373 posts
msg #30951
Ignore EWZuber
2/3/2004 3:12:09 AM

IECE hit an oversold stochastic value of 0 on the hourly chart. The last hour of todays session found the stock trading between support and resistance of the wedge pattern. Tomorrow it is going to break one way or the other.
End of day chart indicates that sell volume is slowing down but intraday chart shows that most volume is still on the sell side.
15 HR.MA @ $1.48 and flattening out.
TL Res. tomorrow morning will be at $1.47.
TL Sup. @ $1.425
IMO


wallman
299 posts
msg #30955
Ignore wallman
2/3/2004 7:53:55 PM

ZUB,as always thanks for the input,congrats on your NVAR trade,great call!


EWZuber
1,373 posts
msg #30956
Ignore EWZuber
2/3/2004 9:10:18 PM

wallman
Thanks. When I saw NAVR come up an a screen and I checked out the TA & FA it gave me a warm feeling. Whenever that happens I know its a good one.
This is one of my favorite set ups when a stock is oversold and testing TL support. Particularly when the fundamentals are good.
The PEG is only 0.92 with 28% EPS growth in FY 2004.


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