StockFetcher Forums · General Discussion · Profitable<< 1 2 3 4 5 >>Post Follow-up
jeepr94
9 posts
msg #39678
Ignore jeepr94
12/19/2005 11:40:32 PM

Hello all. I am a relatively new trader and have just strated looking at fundamental analysis. I bascially look at income statments to see if they are profitable or not. I don't have much money to play with so i like chosing stocks in the 1 to 5 dollar range. I have in the past weeks been only picking stocks that produce some profit. Although as time goes on it seems hard to find stocks profitable in that price range. I am just wondering if you guys look at fundamentals much at all OR if you look for specific fundamental trigers in order to buy. Thank you and happy trading.


EWZuber
1,373 posts
msg #39680
Ignore EWZuber
12/20/2005 4:27:14 AM

I look at fundamentals. I have found that the best long term moves and the biggest moves come from companies with the best fundamentals. You can frequently get short term pops and play cycles on a stock that has poor fundamentals but more often than not you need to get in and out quickly before your profits are eroded.
On the other hand stocks like AAPL with great fundamentals show almost no distribution and very little consolidation.



TheRumpledOne
6,358 posts
msg #39698
Ignore TheRumpledOne
12/20/2005 8:02:05 PM

How a company performs (fundamentals) doesn't directly affect stock price.

Some companies report good earnings only to see the stock price fall. Some companies report poor earnings and the price soars.

What affects stock price is the buying and selling of the stock.

If people think the price will go up, they buy.

If people think the price will go down, they sell.

Just remember: ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN!

MAY ALL YOUR FILLS BE COMPLETE.




EWZuber
1,373 posts
msg #39711
Ignore EWZuber
12/21/2005 11:53:57 AM

Thats true excellent fundamentals do not guarantee you anything but they sure stack the odds in your favor. Add to that disciplined technicals and you have stacked the odds in your favor tremendously. With good fundamentals trades become much less stressful, more predictable and lower maintanance.
Just look at some of the stocks with great fundamentals. PRLS has gone from $0.90 in August of 2004 to $9.50 this month driven by huge earnings gains. Notice it NEVER broke the 50 DMA! How easy does that make it to trade?? WFMI has gone from ~$6 in 1996 to $156 this month with 34 quarters of improved earnings( what do you suppose the odds are of a stock price continuing a downtrend with those kinds of fundamentals?). , GOOG from ~$100 to $450 in 16 months and there are many many more.
Even with poor non technical entries in any of these stocks all you would have had to do is buy and hold. Add technicals to the mix and you can really clean up.
Sure there are speculative stocks that lose money consistently that can have explosive moves but you better be good with entries and exits. Take VOCLD for instance. Any entry after Jan. of 04 when the stock was at $83 until it reached a short term bottom in Nov at $0.55 would have been playing against the odds buying a stock in a long term downtrend. Entries have to be technical, accurate and short term to catch oversold bounces. The fundamentals absolutely suck with the company losing not pennies per share but dollars per share. No wonder it has been heading south.
However if you were really on the ball a move from that low of $0.55 to ~$13 this month was explosive but also tricky. Much more so than any of those examples with great fundamentals. Without highly disciplined technicals to trade with it shouldn't even be attempted.
Point is that when you combine great fundamentals with a proven technical trading discipline it just doesn't get any better.


alf44
2,025 posts
msg #39715
Ignore alf44
12/21/2005 1:00:13 PM

"FUNNY-MENTALS" are only important for longer-term traders and position trades !

To an in-and-out-hit-and-run type short-term trader they are meaningless !

It's really all a matter of TIME HORIZON !

All in my opinion of course !


Regards,

alf44






judgetrade
106 posts
msg #39728
Ignore judgetrade
12/22/2005 6:12:40 AM

Fundamentals can work also short term:
I am not using this setup, but if a stock has a very positive earnings release and the expectations where beaten big time and the stock gaps up (because of that good news) out of a base (e.g. rsi (2) > 80 or so), then you can buy the stock and hold for some days (3-5), even longer term with a trailing stop.

Its called post earnings announcement drift and works pretty well.
It has been documented by behavior finance community (good source for trading ideas, since they are pretty independent and do not want to sell you bogus systems). Do not get into an discussion about the EMH, the behavior finance comunity is just about to kill it.

--> http://econwpa.wustl.edu/eps/fin/papers/0412/0412003.pdf

www.pitbull.com has a system that is based on this "anomaly". About 70% winners.




markcrisp
187 posts
msg #39817
Ignore markcrisp
12/31/2005 6:55:58 AM

it's all about expectations.....TASR, TZOO, GOOG etc.. all had great earnings and theexpectation was it wasgoing to get MUCH better. Of course these stocks did or will collapse.... But "funnymentals" on the whole do play an important role......so does "expectation and "Hype"


markcrisp
187 posts
msg #39818
Ignore markcrisp
12/31/2005 6:57:19 AM

12/21/2005 1:00:13 PM

"FUNNY-MENTALS" are only important for longer-term traders and position trades !

-----------------------------------------------------------------
No I strongly disagree with this statement. You write as if this is a "fact"...When it isn't


alf44
2,025 posts
msg #39822
Ignore alf44
12/31/2005 11:00:01 AM

mark...

...and YOU write as if this ISN't a "fact"...When it IS !!!

Like I said..."To an in-and-out-hit-and-run type short-term trader they (FUNNY-MENTALS) are meaningless ! It's really all a matter of TIME HORIZON !"

From reading your posts here (and one only need look at your posts on other threads here today}...YOUR TIME HORIZON...is longer-term. That's fine ! And that's exactly why I said..."FUNNY-MENTALS" are only important for longer-term traders and position trades !"

YOU...are a longer-term trader...and fundies HAVE meaning !

I...am a short-term trader...and fundies HAVE NO meaning !

Uhhh...again...TIME HORIZON !!!

You say..."I strongly disagree"...where's the disagreement ? I certainly don't see any disagreement !

Also, I clearly state in my previous post that the comments were "All in my opinion of course !"


Regards,

alf44





EWZuber
1,373 posts
msg #39841
Ignore EWZuber
1/1/2006 9:46:27 AM

alf, I disagree. Fundamentals can play a big role in accelerating your gains even during day trading. You hit a stock that is attracting both investors and traders and gains will likely be more consistent,less are motivated to sell and more are motivated to buy thereby increasing your intraday gains as well.
Accumulation phases become longer in duration and greater in amplitude while distribution phases become shorter in duration and lower in amplitude. So your odds of losing money at any point decrease as well.

I actually prefer daytrading because then you can't get hit with after hours surprises (CEO died, factory burned down, lost a major contract etc.) I have taught myself how to daytrade successfully but I don't have the capitol to do it on a regular basis without getting penalized.


StockFetcher Forums · General Discussion · Profitable<< 1 2 3 4 5 >>Post Follow-up

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