StockFetcher Forums · General Discussion · VIX Variance Signal<< 1 2 3 4 >>Post Follow-up
BarTune1
403 posts
msg #80473
Ignore BarTune1
10/1/2009 7:38:57 PM

For anyone who was following, or follows, this signal, note that the VIX closed +13.5% higher than its 10 dma today suggesting that the market is very oversold. I use this signal to buy or sell the SPYs etc. as the case may be.

Anyone that followed the previous thread knows that Kevin brilliantly tweaked the system using (9,2) Bollenger Bands. Using an exit of a cross of the 5 dma (for purposes of a high probability short term reversion to the mean trade) this system produced 88% winners according to his backtesting.

It signalled twice in the past couple weeks and was profitable for me both times. The VIX closed above the band today, suggesting it might be prudent to by the SPY .... or SSO as I have, for purpose of a short term trade.

Kevin_in_GA
4,543 posts
msg #80479
Ignore Kevin_in_GA
modified
10/1/2009 8:12:20 PM

Here's the chart - should automatically update every day.



I went even crazier - TNA (3x bull on small caps). In for 50 shares (~$2000). This is obviously NOT my usual BB(16,2.5) strategy, but rather an opportunistic play for a day or two.

Fingers crossed.

Kevin



BarTune1
403 posts
msg #80481
Ignore BarTune1
10/1/2009 9:00:07 PM

Kevin, I think you are in a good trade ..... and I hope like hell it's profitable ..... I'm in on the SSO and SSO call options .... with your other portfolio, I'd like to see you take the short position as a hedge against those holdings, when the variance is the other way ....

I am a little lop sided on the long side here, especially since there is often a little downside bias the first few days of the month, but this system has always been good to me .... and the variance is particularly large at this moment ....

Kevin_in_GA
4,543 posts
msg #80505
Ignore Kevin_in_GA
10/2/2009 8:16:07 AM

BarTune:

Interesting that if you do the same BB(9,2) analysis for $SPX it highlights the reversals quite nicely:

7/8 price pierces LBB - VIX pierces UBB - up next few days

8/17 close below LBB - VIX closes above UBB - up next few days

9/1 closes below LBB - VIX closes above UBB - up next few days

9/24 and 9/25 price pierces LBB - VIX closes above UBB both days

Here's to relying on statistical likelihood of recurrance!

Kevin_in_GA
4,543 posts
msg #80510
Ignore Kevin_in_GA
10/2/2009 8:59:30 AM

Bad employment numbers across the board. Dow futures down -104 right now. Figures - I go 3x bull and the market responds accordingly.

BarTune1
403 posts
msg #80513
Ignore BarTune1
10/2/2009 9:05:36 AM

Kevin, I'm feeling it worse than you today .... I prefer to average into positions .... but I think I added too much yesterday where i should be comfortably adding another unit today ....

I would average down your cost today on a drop and stick to the exit I have always used. If you lose on this trade you can rest assured I got my ass kicked 10x more .....



Kevin_in_GA
4,543 posts
msg #80535
Ignore Kevin_in_GA
modified
10/2/2009 10:45:27 AM

Breathe a little easier - I'm seeing some green on the indices (IXIC, NDX). Looks like the Dow and S&P are hovering around the unchanged mark right now, with no planned news to screw up the rest of the day.

BarTune1
403 posts
msg #80565
Ignore BarTune1
10/2/2009 4:08:30 PM

Well Kevin, we made it through the day ..... I think we will get an upswing next week such that we will still get out at a profit ..... time now for a cocktail ....

Kevin_in_GA
4,543 posts
msg #80566
Ignore Kevin_in_GA
modified
10/2/2009 4:10:12 PM

Well, my TNA shares were down only 75 cents on the day (-$37.50). I can live with that.

Meanwhile, the ^VIX closed up +0.34 to 28.61, but did at least close below the Upper BB(9,2).

Here's to Monday!

Kevin_in_GA
4,543 posts
msg #80639
Ignore Kevin_in_GA
10/5/2009 1:54:46 PM

For anyone who wants to see how the ^VIX moves relative to its Bollinger Bands, here's a link that wil let you track it anytime (15 minute delayed):

Stockcharts.com chart of the $VIX with Bollinger bands(9,2)

Kevin

StockFetcher Forums · General Discussion · VIX Variance Signal<< 1 2 3 4 >>Post Follow-up

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