StockFetcher Forums · General Discussion · Intraday Trend Watch: S&P 500<< 1 ... 15 16 17 18 19 ... 30 >>Post Follow-up
karennma
6,386 posts
msg #62078
Ignore karennma
5/2/2008 2:53:51 PM

you're right about the options ....
I realize I should've hedged such a huge bet with options, but my ARROGANCE prevented me from doing so.
I was so "sure" of what I was doing.
I had a cruise planned and everything.
This is how I lose money .. overconfidence, hubris.
Three weeks ago, I was on top of the world.
Now I feel like the dumbest person in the world.
:>(




karennma
6,386 posts
msg #62117
Ignore karennma
5/3/2008 8:03:07 PM

johnpaulca
- johnpaulca 5/2/2008 10:59:38 AM
I don't think it will stay under 20 for much longer.
====================================================

Regarding the $VIX
It's @ 18 now.
The lowest it's been in the last ten years was 10.
That was January '07.
In that case, the DOW could rally to 15,000.





karennma
6,386 posts
msg #62118
Ignore karennma
5/3/2008 9:34:18 PM

I HOPE your suspicions are correct.
Maybe we'll get a reversal soon.
Like Monday!

From SF home page:
Candlesticks:
Dark Cloud - 300
Dark Cloud Cover - 683

Come on dark clouds!


johnpaulca
10,080 posts
msg #62119
Ignore johnpaulca
5/4/2008 12:58:05 AM

Amateur-Investors:

The 2 Period Relative Strength Index (RSI). This was the 3rd week in a row the 2 Period RSI has closed below the 20 level (point D). The last time the VIX closed three weeks in a row below the 20 level was in October of 2007 (point E) right before a correction developed (points F to G). Thus this is one reason I believe the major averages are nearing a short term top although they may still have one more up week before a correction develops.

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nikoschopen
2,824 posts
msg #62120
Ignore nikoschopen
5/4/2008 2:01:19 AM

JP, Nice analysis. Although I don't follow VIX personally, it's a convincing argument nonetheless. Another reason for a reversal is that $SPX is nearing its 200-day moving average, which will be fought tooth and nail by the bears. This would be like ure wrestlemania cage of death match.

Karen, we haven't even gone through a capitulation process. If you revisit every one of them bear markets in the past, you'll notice a period of long drawn-out capitulation before it was able to pick its ass up. I haven't seen that yet, have you?

karennma
6,386 posts
msg #62123
Ignore karennma
5/4/2008 8:45:07 AM

johnpaulca
johnpaulca 5/4/2008 12:58:05 AM
Amateur-Investors:
================================================

"Amateur-Investors"...???
Thanks, John.
I guess you HAD to put that there .. to make me feel better?
It must be very gratifying for "pros" like you to kick a gal in the face when she's already down.
I'd already learned my lesson, but thanks for the reinforcement.









johnpaulca
10,080 posts
msg #62124
Ignore johnpaulca
modified
5/4/2008 11:10:01 AM

Karennma:
"Amateur-Investors" is the name of a newsletter...I don't judge people because we "all" make trades we are not so proud of...you will get your groove back...cheers.

P.S. I am no pro, just a student of the market.

nikoschopen
2,824 posts
msg #62126
Ignore nikoschopen
5/4/2008 3:17:41 PM

JP,

To minimize any useless misunderstanding, you should quote ure source in the following format, preferably with a hyperlink:

(Source: Amateur Investor)

nikoschopen
2,824 posts
msg #62140
Ignore nikoschopen
5/5/2008 10:24:38 AM

S&P futures went all the way down to 1400.75 in the overnight session. It's my feeling that we'll retest this low as SPOOZ currently is faltering.

nikoschopen
2,824 posts
msg #62145
Ignore nikoschopen
5/5/2008 11:07:02 AM

Although unlikely for now, if we manage to fall below 1400 we could easily take this market down to 1390 where the previous major support lies. But the bulls, being who they are, will stand their ground at 1400. Let the battle of Alamo begin!

StockFetcher Forums · General Discussion · Intraday Trend Watch: S&P 500<< 1 ... 15 16 17 18 19 ... 30 >>Post Follow-up

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