StockFetcher Forums · General Discussion · psychological problems after loose<< 1 2 3 4 >>Post Follow-up
shelupinin
120 posts
msg #36603
Ignore shelupinin
7/1/2005 10:58:00 AM


Hi !

I started to trade real money 3 weeks ago, first 2 weeks I didn't make make and didn't loose
money, but during last week I lost 2300 usd :( I had 20000 USD on my account, it's the only
money which I had, with 1:4 margin I had 80000 usd to trade, during last one week I lost 2300 USD
and since that time I fear to trade... I used following filters to trade:
Fetcher[set{ClOp,close - open}
set{x1,clop / open}
set{pct, x1 * 100}
set{y,count(pct is above 5, 20)}
y > 2
and rsi(2) is below 10
and price is above 5
and volume is above 100000
]


and
Fetcher[rsi(2) below 1 and close above 5 and Average Volume(10) is above 100000
and 30 day slope of the lri(60) is above 0.25
and low near Bottom linear Regression Line(60)
]


and
Fetcher[rsi(2) is below 1.5
and volume gained more than 100% over the last 1 day
and price is above 5
and price is below 20
and volume is above 100000
]


according to backtesting those filter has pretty high ROI(200%-1000%) but poor win/loose ratio(30/70)
(I'm using 1% stop loss, no profit stop, 1 day holding period)
looks like I was unlucky last week and I traded loosers stock, most trades was closed due to 1% stop loss.
I beleive that in long period I will have success with such strategy but currently I lost 2300 own money(which
was saved to buy own flat) and since that I fear to continue....
Could someone to advice me some strategy wich will have at least 1 USD win? I really need to win at least
small amount of money to feel myself better! With 80000 USD marginable account I guess it's not
a big problem to have diversified portfolio, so it's possible to have a set of stocks where averages result will be
a win, but I don't have such strategy :( Could someone advice me some strategy wich will show at least 1 USD win in
one week but with 99% probability?

Thanks in advance
alex


da-net
55 posts
msg #36607
Ignore da-net
7/1/2005 12:26:49 PM

STOP TRADING IMMEDIATELY! Take a break. Relax. Clear your head and get a different perspective. Day trading typically does not allow you to win, you will be more agressive and loose more. Please take this from someone that has been there. I lost over $20K, before doing what I am giving you advice on.

Analyze everything you have been doing, study some of the old masters teachings they truly knew what they were doing, rethink if you want to be a day trader. Using margin of 4 to 1 in my opinion is dangerous. In " The Art of Speculation by Phillip Carret" he points out that in 1913 the Fed passed rules to limit margin to 40% to "protect the retail investor" but it did not work. They still lost money and during the crash of 1930 in his opinion actually caused the crash to accelerate. Then in 1934 they increased margin requirements to 50%, now they have been reduced to 25% in most cases and in some I've heard of 5%....Ask yourself the question of "Why would the regulators change this?"

If you want to paper trade for a bit and perhaps gain a new perspective, I am seeking help in evaluating a new options filter I am constructing.


sulldt
16 posts
msg #36610
Ignore sulldt
7/1/2005 2:00:35 PM

I agree with "da net" that posted the previos reply. I've been using stock fetcher for about 5 nonths now and have looked at a great many filters posted by people and have yet to find one that works on a regular basis, which is what you and I are looking for. Don't know if there is one. Paper trade whatever you come up with for a couple of months to see how you would have done but don't use real money until you know you have something that works.


judgetrade
106 posts
msg #36616
Ignore judgetrade
7/1/2005 5:24:13 PM

If you do not make it here, you will make it no where!
Here the screen I startet three months ago. I am profitable with stockfetcher from day one (about 10% since then).

show stocks where count(RSI(2) 2 day ago above 99,60) is above 0
and RSI(2) 1 day ago is below 5
and average volume(10) above 250000
and close one day ago more than 10% below close 2 day ago
and close more then 5% below close 1 day ago

The above screen (and a lot of more screens that are posted here)
is profitable (hold for 3 days!), I backtestet it by hand back to 1997, steady grow upwards!


Andreas




leaddog
38 posts
msg #36621
Ignore leaddog
7/1/2005 9:48:34 PM

shelupinin,

We have all been there. A couple a weeks ago, I ran into a loosing streak, and questioned what I was doing. Now it is back on track, just part of trading I believe.

For me your filters return a lot of picks, less works for me.

Looking at your trading method "(I'm using 1% stop loss, no profit stop, 1 day holding period)" I believe the stop loss is loosing you money. Dont believe it, backtest without it and see.

See if you like this one. Backtest Stats since the begining of the year. I use it, take them all (except recent IPOs) and hold for 2 days. No stop loss set.

Trade Statistics
There were 182 total stocks entered. Of those, 180 or 98.90% were complete and 2 or 1.10% were open.
Of the 180 completed trades, 114 trades or 63.33%resulted in a net gain.
Your average net change for completed trades was: 8.45%.
The average draw down of your approach was: -7.85%.
The average max profit of your approach was: 17.89%
The Reward/Risk ratio for this approach is: 3.66
Annualized Return on Investment (ROI): 1042.98%, the ROI of ^SPX was: 0.00%.

Fetcher[RSI(2) < 10
and Close has been decreasing over the last 3 days
and Close dropped > 20 percent over the last 3 days
and Average Volume(10) is above 300000
and close is between .3 and 2
]



Special thanks to the The RumpledOne for pointing out RSI and his creative filters.

Regards,

Leaddog


corsino
259 posts
msg #36625
Ignore corsino
7/2/2005 1:18:42 AM

Leaddog
I backtested your filter and considering the adequate number of stocks and the W/L ratio, it is one of the best I've tried. I've backtested it going back two years and the results are consistent. Have you used it with real money?


Taprofits
4 posts
msg #36627
Ignore Taprofits
7/2/2005 2:29:26 AM

Get trading profitably prior to using margin...

I like taking my losses because they are small and when my mental or physical stop gets hit it's SOLD. unbreakable rule. if you hate taking losses it may be a sign of stops not in right place or you change them or rationalize why it could just go a little longer....oops.

read Market Makers Edge, Josh Lukeman he has good stuff on money management

your capital is your ticket to keep in the game and is precious.

Trading is about mitigating losses. and of course letting your profits RUN!




BigOh
23 posts
msg #36632
Ignore BigOh
7/2/2005 11:07:24 AM

Alex,
If you thought you would never have a losing trade or that you would always be "up", and you really needed that money for something, I would strongly suggest you quit trading altogether and put your money in a money market or something like it. You lost over $450 per day plus commish. Thats not bad when the market is working againist you.
You stuck to your rules and they worked you only lost $2300.
Have you gone back and figured out how much you would be down in those positions if you were still in them?
How much you would be up?
Did you look at the winning trades you made?

If you want to continue trading, good for you, but I would prepare yourself for at least a possible 20% drawdown before you become profitable. Try to keep your head on the goal you have set and keep focused on your trading, constanly evaluate it, daily, hourly by the minute or by the trade.



shelupinin
120 posts
msg #36634
Ignore shelupinin
7/2/2005 12:16:32 PM

to BihOh:
I didn't get back and checked how much would I be down or up because now it does'n matter, I already lost a lot of money :((( I understand well that if you want to trade you have to be ready to lost some money... but the problem is that I can't afford to myself to loose even 1 usd more, money wich I have on my investing account the only money wich I have and they saved to buy own flat, in such condition it really difficult to continue to trade, if may possition would go down even for 0.1% I will be panic :( I was lucky to get high-paid temporary job, I save money for flat but started to trade, I thought I will win at least some money since my filters shows good ROI but reality is that I was unlicky in picking stocks and lost $$$ :(


corsino
259 posts
msg #36636
Ignore corsino
7/2/2005 12:54:15 PM

Shelupinin
It seems that you are gambling with money that you can't afford to lose. Bad idea. Also, you were too trusting of the ROI results of filters. Bad idea. Daytrading with little or no experience. Bad idea. If you continue stock trading, start slow, with only a small portion of your money until you get experienced. But that's only my opinions. Good luck.



StockFetcher Forums · General Discussion · psychological problems after loose<< 1 2 3 4 >>Post Follow-up

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