shillllihs
5,992 posts
msg #133883
- Ignore shillllihs |
1/25/2017 6:21:21 PM
Sold Ugaz, Uso, Uco, hold a small amount of Tvix. Thinking of shorting Xiv.
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T_Charp13
35 posts
msg #133889
- Ignore T_Charp13 |
1/26/2017 10:27:03 AM
So your position is to buy TVIX when the first number in the "month 7 to 4 contango" is below 5%?
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #133892
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
1/26/2017 11:59:03 AM
I would only buy TVIX if the VIX were in backwardation (contango less than 0%). Otherwise I usually short it, which has been a very reliable trade.
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T_Charp13
35 posts
msg #133893
- Ignore T_Charp13 |
1/26/2017 12:06:32 PM
Short vix when contango is below 5% and buy TVIX when in backwardation, got it. What is your preference of TVIX over UVXY?
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shillllihs
5,992 posts
msg #133894
- Ignore shillllihs
modified |
1/26/2017 1:19:25 PM
Go long Vix under zero, not short.
This goes hand in hand with what I've been saying, that shorting Vix is very reliable and going long Vix is a gamble. One thing I will say is, if Xiv starts to drop, it will almost 100% hit Weekly Acceleration Band(21) midline, and in my o. reverse back up. If not, look for a bear market, though I think won't happen for 3-5 years.
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T_Charp13
35 posts
msg #133896
- Ignore T_Charp13 |
1/26/2017 1:57:07 PM
You are right, meant to type to short XIV and not VIX
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #133898
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
1/26/2017 3:55:04 PM
Short vix when contango is below 5% and buy TVIX when in backwardation, got it. What is your preference of TVIX over UVXY?
No -
Contango above 5% - Long XIV or short TVIX
Contango between 5% and 0% - WAIT. The market is not sending a clear signal and there is no need to jump the gun.
Contango below 0% - Long TVIX, and watch it carefully. Probably good to use trailing stop to lock in what profits you can, since this is usually a short term mean reverting trade.
TVIX and UVXY are functionally the same.
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shillllihs
5,992 posts
msg #133899
- Ignore shillllihs |
1/26/2017 4:18:41 PM
And if you do play Vix long in a bull market, it should only be for 5 days.
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SAFeTRADE
630 posts
msg #133900
- Ignore SAFeTRADE |
1/26/2017 6:28:24 PM
Where to find the numbers on contango? The math is horrible! at least for me.
I have seen the formulas, I am pretty sure he can handle them from the stand
point of his profession. Is it really worth trading these vehicles if these numbers
are not readily available?
Clarence
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #133901
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
1/26/2017 8:56:16 PM
Go to www.vixcentral.com. They are all there. Updated constantly throughout the day.
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