pthomas215
1,251 posts
msg #133963
- Ignore pthomas215 |
1/30/2017 12:16:37 PM
i think trump controversy is just starting. markets like consistency, flow, expectations meeting expectations...trump prides himself on doing the opposite. volatility will increase further..I hope. I think XIV will be at least a buy at $55 as opposed to where it is now. we havent really had a January effect until now.
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #133967
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
1/30/2017 1:37:02 PM
Well, I go solely by the contango levels for trading these volatility ETFs. Currently VIX contango is 10.42% right now, so unless it drops to 5% or below I will stay in, and add to my position on pullbacks like we are having this morning. The drop today may be the start of something larger, or it might be a simple knee jerk reaction to Trump's weekend antics. I've been in this trade since 11/22 so unless it drops to below my cost basis I'm okay with my strategy. I see this as a buying opportunity, but with increased caution and watchfulness for exactly the reasons you listed.
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kibo
14 posts
msg #133969
- Ignore kibo |
1/30/2017 3:06:07 PM
I think Kevin did a good job again. This market is systematic not emotional. I see still money pours into stocks and shorting VIX. But we are kind of on edge, one trump tweet can disrupt everything.
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shillllihs
6,003 posts
msg #133981
- Ignore shillllihs |
1/31/2017 10:07:34 AM
The currently humble Shills,(which may change and usually will at any moment) believes this is the pullback. It will not be as dramatic as I once expected, since we are in a bull market, but Xiv may be 46 by next Monday.
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shillllihs
6,003 posts
msg #133983
- Ignore shillllihs
modified |
1/31/2017 10:48:40 AM
The short has been in play for 2 days now. Treacherous images of a Pompei inferno are beginning to seep into the minds of the masses
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kibo
14 posts
msg #133986
- Ignore kibo |
1/31/2017 11:20:58 AM
Fundamentally I don't see any reason for major pull back. In either case, rates dropped again and that is again good for stocks. If they go up, again that's good for stocks unless it goes up dramatically which I highly doubt it would. The only case for that if china starts dumping treasuries in faster pace. Feds won't do anything. So I guess Kevin's trade is good.
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shillllihs
6,003 posts
msg #133987
- Ignore shillllihs |
1/31/2017 11:43:26 AM
Up or down that's fine, I virtually have nothing left in the market, all in real assets.
This is just gambling.
I'll be at americas no.1 restaurant Bob Chinns for lunch with my wife at noon.
If anyone's in the Northbrook area, come and join us for a mai tai and some great seafood.
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #133990
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
1/31/2017 2:04:47 PM
Truth is there are several things I look at, as confirmatory signals other than the primary measure of contango:
1. VXV/VIX ratio: This should be above 1.1 for a green light, between 1.1 and 1.0 for a caution signal, and below 1 is a red light. Currently at 1.17 (green).
2. VIX/VXST ratio: This should be above 1.05 for a green light, between 1.05 and 1.0 for a caution signal, and below 1 is a red light. Currently at 0.99 (red).
3. Roll Yield: This should be above 5% for a green light, between 5% and 0% for a caution signal, and below 0% is a red light. Currently at 3.64% (yellow).
4. VIX contango - VXV contango: This should be above 0 (and VIX contango above 0%) for a green light, between below 0 (and VIX contango above 0%) for a caution signal, and below 0 (and VIX contango below 0) is a red light. Currently at -0.3% but VIX contango is still at 10.15% (yellow).
Note that all of these were green yesterday.
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T_Charp13
35 posts
msg #133993
- Ignore T_Charp13 |
1/31/2017 3:33:03 PM
Can you also get that info from vixcentral?
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shillllihs
6,003 posts
msg #134015
- Ignore shillllihs |
2/2/2017 9:45:55 AM
The Kevin drama continues, as he was 1cent away from closing out his position. Utilizing ballz of steal, he said I am a man and will stick to my system no matter what. Will Tvix hit its target of 5.10?
I know I would have closed it out early, but that's just me. We need a little drama...
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