gpoleman
14 posts
msg #105332
- Ignore gpoleman |
3/9/2012 9:14:06 AM
not that it's a bad thing, but it seems like every winning strategy filter posted by someone ends up being rebuked by others who find stats to suggest it won't work for this or that reason. i think all the backtesting is blown way out of proportion. i think i read where Paul Tudor Jones said he doesn't need to know what a stock did years ago. what's important is what is it doing now. what i would like to know is if there is anyone on this forum who has been using a trading strategy that he/she got from here months or years ago and they are making money with it. if so, would you be willing to share what it is and hopefully no one will start all their backtesting and find the entry or exit is wrong, etc., etc. what is making money for someone over the long haul? thank you in advance for sharing it with us.
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miketranz
956 posts
msg #105342
- Ignore miketranz |
3/9/2012 3:58:07 PM
Gpoleman,the market is a dynamic animal,adapting to it is the name of the game.What worked in the past,isn't working now.Whole books written on the subject are outdated as they go to press.The ones written years ago,95% of them,throw them in the garbage.Technology has sped up trading into milliseconds.Filters,in my opinion,are overrated but still serve as a tool in your arsenal.It's not the filter,its the man behind it pulling the trigger.It's the man behind it that applies entries,exits,stop losses,position size,time frame.So what I'm getting at is,work more on yourself and what works for you.I'm sure you know what does not work.Try trading one or two stocks only,on a daily basis.You don't have to trade every day,but you do need to observe every day,if you want to know a stocks patterns,movements.What you're looking for in any trade is consistent movements.One thing that has not changed and will never change in the markets is fear & greed.I base all my trading on those two factors alone.Good luck,Miketranz........
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gpoleman
14 posts
msg #105357
- Ignore gpoleman |
3/10/2012 11:51:11 AM
mike, thanks for the followup post. i really do appreciate it. i was just simply wanting to find out if indeed there was anyone who had come across a filter related system from previous posts here that had actually been working over a period of time. i've been trading over 10 years and pretty much have my strategy in place. and you are right, the markets do change, which is to my whole point. is someone using something from here that's worked over a longer period of time. just seems to be a lot of dissecting that goes on with every filter that is posted and the end result from the posts i've seen is nothing ever really works. i understand that there are people who like to play around with backtesting. that's all part of what the filter exchange is all about.
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miketranz
956 posts
msg #105368
- Ignore miketranz |
3/11/2012 12:38:56 PM
What time frame are we talking about? Day trading,swing,long term? Also,do you mean a system that works all the time,such as from years ago to current times? Miketranz.........
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gpoleman
14 posts
msg #105428
- Ignore gpoleman |
3/13/2012 10:31:07 PM
mike, if you have a system or method that works on any time frame, i would be interested and would appreciate you posting it.
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mmaurice
51 posts
msg #105433
- Ignore mmaurice |
3/14/2012 8:24:41 AM
Also, if you have the directions to the fountain of youth I'll take that along with the winning lotto numbers for tonight.
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miketranz
956 posts
msg #105438
- Ignore miketranz |
3/14/2012 9:25:32 PM
That's a very difficult question to answer.But don't be discouraged,you'll come up with a system,if you work long & hard enough at it.I have 15 years in and still trying to come up with it.Miketranz.....
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dustinb
29 posts
msg #105645
- Ignore dustinb |
3/24/2012 4:13:04 PM
I know where the answer lies. Unfortunately, it is buried in the Hall of Records underneath the left paw of the Sphinx in Egypt. Until we can get to it, we are just going to have to do the best we can to find today's 5% runner!
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Eman93
4,750 posts
msg #105648
- Ignore Eman93 |
3/24/2012 9:55:38 PM
A filter gives you candidates to trade.. that is only part 1...
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jimvin
170 posts
msg #105649
- Ignore jimvin |
3/24/2012 11:24:37 PM
Yes and No. No filter works well forever in every market.
glgene's 111% filter works extremely well is a straight play (as opposed to shorting) for a while when the market was strongly trending up. (When the market trends up in a given week it still works well.) Some of the Darvas filters here and the RSI-based filters also work well under the same circumstances.
In the current market most of the money is being made in the first hour of trading (sometimes in the first 15 minutes); no one wants to hold anything long.
China's economy is shaky, the European debt crisis continues, gas prices are soaring, the hiousing market is shaky at best, and unemployment here at home is by no means optimal. Every week offers some rotating shock to the system.
Keep in mind that Nicholas Darvas, who made millions, warned his readers not to trade using his method in anything other than a strong bull market. The current market is the worst most of us have seen in 20 years; others put that at 40 years or more.
At best, you'll need to work for your wealth: Pick some filters that look good, sign up with a reasoanbly-priced broker that allows paper trading like ChoiceTrade or tradeMONSTER, and play your system(s) using various stop-losses and trading styles for several months (buy and hold, trade early on Monday, trade later in the week, use a stop-loss, use a profit-take, etc.)
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