cabogordon
88 posts
msg #89215
- Ignore cabogordon |
3/6/2010 6:48:59 PM
This is going to sound like a crazy post. Good traders are only right what 50% of the time. Ok, maybe not M4M ( joke )
but why not create a filter that we trade against. just do the opposite of what we think.
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dickysofa
63 posts
msg #89223
- Ignore dickysofa |
3/6/2010 8:52:29 PM
This is pretty much my cut-n-paste response to this type of question...
It's not what percentage of trades are winners or losers but how you plan to manage your trades once you are in them. If I only average a $25 loss from my losers and take in $300 from my winners, I have a Payoff Ratio of 1200%. I could have 4 dogs for every winners and still have a 300% Payoff Ratio. Good traders have to learn how to eat their young...
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stratiG
147 posts
msg #89224
- Ignore stratiG |
3/6/2010 9:34:05 PM
Risk/Potential Profit . That is the equation you should be thinking about. You can be right 10% of the time and still be profitable, but can your psyche handle it. The poster above is on the right track.
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miketranz
956 posts
msg #89235
- Ignore miketranz |
3/7/2010 10:22:27 AM
Good post.It's not just about being right on a percentage basis,it's all about how you manage the trades that you're in.What's your max downside loss? What's your max upside gain.These are the factors you won't find in any filters. Some of the most successful traders of all time,the honest ones,will tell you they're right maybe 50% of the time.Another great point is doing the opposite in trading.I'm a big believer in fading popular beliefs."Fade the gap" filter is good example and one of the best stand alone trading methods that I've ever used.If 95% of short term traders lose money,you wanna be positioned where the other 5% of the traders are.
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