StockFetcher Forums · General Discussion · Any Predictions on market moves from Debt Ceiling?<< 1 2 >>Post Follow-up
6 posts
msg #101644
Ignore rudolf100
7/14/2011 9:57:26 PM

Just wondering what people think the market reaction to this debt ceiling will be.

I'm thinking the market is gonna fall until they pass it, then a nice pop. I don't think
it's really possible that they won't pass something because all parties involved
I.E. congress members have too much of their personal wealth tied to it.

But my motives are really greed, because I'm thinking theres gonna be a nice
run up once it passes.

101 posts
msg #101645
Ignore campbellb75
7/14/2011 10:10:22 PM

I predict the market will move up, down or sideways. Anyone have a magic 8 ball that we can ask?

This is why I don't make predictions. They're usually already priced into the market.

11 posts
msg #101646
Ignore Redwine
7/14/2011 10:41:18 PM

The market is the market and it is always correct.

6 posts
msg #101647
Ignore rudolf100
7/14/2011 10:46:59 PM

Efficient market theory - sorry it's been proven wrong.

Random walk theory - sorry again it's been proven wrong.

767 posts
msg #101654
Ignore gmg733
7/15/2011 8:25:32 AM

Who here believes the debt ceiling is something that actually exists? Sorry, another political scare talking point. The concept of the debt ceiling is no way shape or form tied to the budget. But yet all the media ties them together to put the people in panic.

Just like the concept of national debt, a fallacy and a scam.

The real question is, what is going on that all the attention of the people is direct at this story? That is the real question. What is the real news that the government is hiding with the debt ceiling fear.

My 02.

4,689 posts
msg #101706
Ignore Eman93
7/18/2011 6:07:57 PM

The debt ceiling is a real thing.. the gov can not borrow more than the cap... its against the law..

AUG 2nd must be the time the interest payments are due and the treas needs to make payments to bond holders and everyone else. They are short the cash. so need to borrow to pay... so.....

They don't have enough to pay all the bills.. and are not allowed to borrow more per the law...

they will pass it.. IMHO.. both sides are trying to leverage the problem into getting something done for longer term stability...

The Re pubs want spending cuts dems want to let bush tax cut expire. and oil subsides closed.

Most of it is the unfunded Iraq and Afghan war... Bush cut tax while starting 2 wars... LOL... the oil and gas complex made out like bandits..

The truth is out there some where...

This is just the beginning of the debt problems in the western wold.. we shall see what happens.

1,550 posts
msg #101709
Ignore Mactheriverrat
7/18/2011 7:08:06 PM

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133 posts
msg #101716
Ignore decipherlinda
7/19/2011 12:22:55 PM

Had no problem with Eman93 reference:

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner on Thursday urged lawmakers to act soon to increase the debt ceiling, warning that failure to do so would be disastrous for the economy and for Americans.

In a letter to congressional leaders, Geithner said Treasury estimates that U.S. borrowing needs could push the amount of debt past the legal borrowing limit of $14.294 trillion sometime between March 31 and May 16. As of Tuesday, the amount of U.S. debt subject to the debt ceiling was $13.961 trillion.

The debt ceiling has never been reached. But if U.S. borrowing hits the ceiling and lawmakers fail to raise it, Treasury would be prohibited from borrowing more money. Barring immediate and draconian policy changes, the country would be unable to pay its bondholders or fund programs and benefits in full. That's because there wouldn't be enough tax revenue coming in to cover all of the country's bills. Experts say the cascade effect would be crippling not only to the U.S. economy but very likely to economies and markets worldwide.

Debt ceiling: What you need to know

At a minimum, a default could pummel U.S. bonds, the dollar and U.S. investors' portfolios. And that, in turn, could create a debt crisis for the United States that would likely be even harder to combat than the financial crisis of 2008. "Even a very short-term or limited default would have catastrophic economic consequences that would last for decades," Geithner wrote.

Borrowing costs would rise across the board -- for federal, state and local governments, and for businesses and consumers, he said. Millions of jobs could be lost and stock prices, home values and retirement savings would suffer, Geithner added. While Treasury has certain measures it can take to postpone a breach from occurring, Geithner said they would only last "several weeks."

The debt ceiling is a cap set by Congress on the amount of debt the federal government can legally borrow. The cap applies to debt owed to the public (i.e., anyone who buys U.S. bonds) plus debt owed to federal government trust funds such as those for Social Security and Medicare.

The decision to raise the debt ceiling is often incorrectly equated with an agreement to spend more money. In fact, the need to raise the debt ceiling reflects prior legislative decisions that both Democrats and Republicans made to spend more.

That's why budget experts say a refusal to raise the debt ceiling is akin to refusing to pay one's bills, not a principled refusal to add to the country's debt. Even if no more new spending bills were approved, the country would need to raise the debt ceiling because of policies already in place.

The debate over whether to raise the cap has often been a political dogfight.

But the upcoming debate is expected by some to be "all-out war." Some newly minted Tea Party lawmakers and seasoned conservatives have either flatly said they will not vote for an increase or plan to use the opportunity to force spending cuts in exchange for their votes.

"While America cannot default on its debt, we also cannot continue to borrow recklessly, dig ourselves deeper into this hole, and mortgage the future of our children and grandchildren," said House Speaker John Boehner. Any spending concessions that can be extracted in the debt ceiling fight may help the country's fiscal situation going forward.

22 posts
msg #101731
Ignore haskellb2006
7/20/2011 10:27:59 AM

Debt ceiling is really a diversion, with a debt based system, it must grow or default.

when new money is available, the markets will go up.

1 posts
msg #101968
Ignore rquantum11
8/3/2011 1:04:55 PM

General rule of thumb: Your indicators work ok, even backtested.......until you put money on it.

StockFetcher Forums · General Discussion · Any Predictions on market moves from Debt Ceiling?<< 1 2 >>Post Follow-up

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