StockFetcher Forums · General Discussion · Bull markets don't end when lots of stocks are hitting new highs?<< 1 2 3 >>Post Follow-up
4,388 posts
msg #86660
Ignore four
1/20/2010 1:34:36 PM

New Highs

Check this link in the next 3, 6, and 12 months ?

Jan. 20, 2010, 12:01 a.m. EST
New highs for the new-high data
Commentary: Bull markets don't end when lots of stocks are hitting new highs

By Mark Hulbert, MarketWatch

ANNANDALE, Va. (MarketWatch) -- On Tuesday, when the stock market hit a new 52-week high, no fewer than 316 NYSE-listed issues also hit new yearly highs.

7,051 posts
msg #86662
Ignore karennma
1/20/2010 2:23:15 PM

Ahhhh yes!
Mark Hulbert!
I remember a piece he wrote in the Spring of '08, titled ***"DOW 16K?" ***
Those were happy times! The DOW was riding high in the saddle @ 13K.
Then, a MONTH later, crashed .. from 13,000 to 7,500.
(Apr '08 to Nov. '08)

I just don't trust newsletter writers.

Mark Hulbert

185 posts
msg #86675
Ignore fortyfour
1/20/2010 4:41:07 PM

OK since newsletters are mentioned here and I'm the ETF pain in the ass !

Any informative newsletters for ETF's or sectors (maybe leaning strongly towards commodities)
that you guys use ?

No magic signals etc...... just consolidated info / analysis. I'm tired of jumping site to site to site to site to site......


7,051 posts
msg #86676
Ignore karennma
1/20/2010 4:48:52 PM

To be honest with you, I used to trade ETFs based on what I read on websites.
Then I realized, the best ETF info was right here on SF.
You've got to know the signals .. when to buy 'em and when to sell 'em ...
Or as Jesse Livermore would say, "when to hold 'em and when to fold 'em".
TIMING is everything ... and the most comprehensive info on "timing", is here on SF, IMHO.
... JMHO ...

(BTW, I'd give you the website I used to follow, but the guy was WRONG so often, it wouldn't be worth your while)

185 posts
msg #86685
Ignore fortyfour
1/20/2010 6:46:06 PM

Not interested in buy / sell advice........
is the type of "info" I'm talking about......

But , thanks anyway..........

32 posts
msg #86691
Ignore VenturaTrader
1/20/2010 8:42:35 PM


I too have sworn off listening to stock market gurus and newsletter writers; as you know Hulbert tracks them all and he does say most of them are wrong. I was a subscriber to Bob Brinker's Markettimer which formerly had some excellent timing calls. However, Bob Brinker completely missed issuing a sell signal for the market tanking the past couple of years; I lost a ton!

The stock picking services don't work either; by the time the stock picks are issued, they are bid up by the early birds so much they are over bought.

It is my belief that YOUR own ETF strategy can be designed to make money; the forums here on SF are a big help! However, if we all are following and trading the exact same strategy, it is possible we could move the market on thinly traded ETFs.

I hope you did not get into XPP or were able to get out without a substantial loss.


4,599 posts
msg #86694
Ignore Kevin_in_GA
1/20/2010 8:51:40 PM

Actually I agree with this basic concept - as new highs outstrip new lows, the market is in no real danger of correcting.

Here's an interesting post from this afternoon with some data to support this idea:

The High Low Index & The Stock Market: Up!

Also, here's a quick filter to show you how well this approach has predicted the overall market movements over the past two years (using SPY, DIA, and QQQQ as market surrogates):


set{total, newh + newl}
set{difference,newh - newl}
set{HighLow_osc, difference / total}

draw HighLow_osc line at 0
add column HighLow_osc {new highs / new lows}

chart-time is 2 years

When this line crosses below 0, look out!

749 posts
msg #86696
Ignore miketranz
1/20/2010 9:09:01 PM

I keep telling you guys,most of the stock market gurus,can't trade their way out of a paper bag.They're great salesman trying to sell you a bag of goods,only because they never made any real money in the markets themselves.They'll show you how everything looks great on the charts.Let me know what their best picks are so I can short them.PS:Bull markets end when they run out of buyers to unload the goods on,when smart money sells out to dumb money......

7,051 posts
msg #86715
Ignore karennma
1/21/2010 9:31:40 AM

- VenturaTrader 1/20/2010 8:42:35 PM
I hope you did not get into XPP or were able to get out without a substantial loss.

Hey Mike:
Thanks for your thoughfulness.
I did not buy XPP. I was only bringing it to the attention of those who trade ETFs.
I believe the day I posted XPP, it went up 9%. It was a DAYTRADE ONLY.
In fact, I learned my lesson the hard way ... or er, .. the expensive way ...
Rule #1: Never hold an ETF for more than 24 hrs. .. no matter what the market is doing.
I've said it before, and I'll say it again .... I DON'T trade ETFs.
I watch 'em, but don't trade 'em.
I think they're rip-offs.
That's JMHO.
If someone gave me $1 million dollars, the LAST thing on earth I'd EVER do is buy an ETF.

7,051 posts
msg #86716
Ignore karennma
1/21/2010 9:37:53 AM

Interesting ... as I typed the above message, XPP gapped down $2.
The day before it gapped down $6.
The day before that it gapped UP $4.
Some people "like" that kind of volatility. They think it's "fun".
I don't.

StockFetcher Forums · General Discussion · Bull markets don't end when lots of stocks are hitting new highs?<< 1 2 3 >>Post Follow-up

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